GAMESDRAWS – Trixies tipster tops Tipstrr’s table

OVERVIEW :

GAMESDRAWS has been providing Football and Multiples tips since January 2023 delivering an incredible 33% ROI from an average of 6 tips a day typically advised at 10 points for singles tips or 20 pts for multiples tips.

Tipstrr.com put GAMESDRAWS in No.1 spot in their 2023 Best Football Tipsters half-yearly Review. Here’s what they had to say …

 

” 1st GamesDraws 907 tips, 31.5% ROI, £5,711 Profit
Leagues: Various  Market: Draws only + exotic

And so onto our best football tipster so far in 2023 in the shape of GamesDraws, who is also the newest service on our list after only launching at the very beginning of the year. The phrase ‘hitting the ground running’ would be an understatement for a service that has just crowned four straight profitable months by also earning June’s Best Football Tipster accolade with a hefty 64% monthly gain.

Picking draws is a risky strategy that is fraught with obvious dangers, but this tipster not only has a discerning eye for value in that market, but also enhances that value by combining his single tips into much more lucrative trixies.

That diverse approach should appeal to those who enjoy their footy accas, especially as they have consistently given his betting bank a hefty boost, thanks to an impressive 24% success rate from more than 200 such multiple bets so far this year.”

PERFORMANCE :

There have been 4 profitable months from 6 total months suggesting a 67% chance of having a profitable month when you join.

With only 6 months of results its early days yet but, performance so far over different time periods indicates a 100% expectation of making a profit with GAMESDRAWS over every consecutive 2 month period.

Since joining Tipstrr 7 months ago in January 2023, GAMESDRAWS has :

• made a total cumulative profit of £5,957 and an average monthly profit of £851.
• provides Football tips as well as Multiples tips.
• leans toward the 1X2 and Exotic markets.
• bookmakers of choice are Pinnacle and Bet365.
• preferred leagues are Serie A Brazil and Serie A Italy.
• likes to tip at odds between 2.40 and 3.99.
• typically uses a stake of 10/10 or 5/10.
• usually posts their tips around 8PM – 12AM.
• usually posts their tips around 12-24 hours before a fixture starts.
• GAMESDRAWS’s longest unbroken profit streak was 2 months.

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : AVERAGE

The p-value, which gives a measure of how likely it is these results to be achieved purely by chance is 0.0069 ( to 4 decimal places ).

This indicates its very unlikely – under 1% probability – that GAMESDRAWS’s results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : FAIRLY SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

The tip Win Rate has been an average 28% over all 1011 tips. This gives a tolerable ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 21 – in those 1011 tips you should have been prepared for 21 or 22 losing tips in a row. So you will have to have patience and keep plugging away when the losing streaks come. However, in the conclusion at the bottom of this post you will see an opportunity for a much higher ROI reward linked with a slighly longer possible losing streak.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

• Over the next month: At least one run of 17 losing tips.
• In the next 3 months: At least one run of 20 losing tips.
• During the next 6 months: At least one run of 21 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI varies month-on-month.

GAMESDRAWS‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.21 indicating performance is fairly stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : EXCEPTIONAL

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

With an ROI of 33% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.58 which is exceptional value.

BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

Using the ROI figure together with the average number of tips per day and the average advised points per tip we can get a rough estimate of how much we need to betting to at least cover the monthly subscription cost.

£0.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 33% ROI from 6 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£0.30 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.30 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £20 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 400pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for GAMESDRAWS would be 400 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.30/pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £200.

EXPECTANCY : VERY GOOD

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed GAMESDRAWS for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 67% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 7 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1200 points profit versus an average loss of -180 points.

2 MONTHS: It is, I will keep stressing, early days for GAMESDRAWS but every consecutive 2 month period since this service started has been profitable – and there have been 5 of those where you would have made an average of 1370 points profit.

 

CONCLUSION

Slightly early days for this tipster however so far so good.

On the plus side, betting on GAMESDRAWS’ multiples at bookmakers will make you look like a mug punter – which is a great thing for keeping you under their radar – meanwhile you could be making a bit of a killing.

But why settle for just 33% ROI? How about 50% ROI?

I think there’s an interesting high-profit opportunity with this tipster when you analyse the betting market breakdown on the tipsters stats page – see the tables below .

Sport	Tips ▾	Win rate	Profit	ROI	Avg. odds
Football	769	30%	281.40 units	3.7%	3.58
Multiples	242	24%	5843.46 units	53.0%	22.76

Market type	Tips ▾	Win rate	Profit	ROI	Avg. odds
1X2	733	30%	307.90 units	4.2%	3.47
Exotic	240	23%	5668.61 units	51.5%	22.77
Other	37	19%	158.35 units	0.0%	6.46

Its the Multiples/Exotic tips that have been driving the real profit here – roughtly 50% ROI from less than a quarter (25%) of the tips . These are predominantly Trixie bets. A Trixie bet is 3 doubles and 1 treble bet from 3 selections – 4 bets of 5 pts each for a total of 20 points.

The 1X2 tips are performing really poorly – delivering less than 5% ROI. Why would you invest your betting bank in such poorly performing tips?

It could be a much better use of your betting bank – and your time – to follow only the 1 or 2 Trixie tips a day with the potential to get 50% ROI!

But would the losing streaks be much worse if you did this?

Combining the high Expectancy of making a profit over two consecutive months together wIth an average Trixie Win Rate of 24% the Expected Longest Losing Run (ELLR) over the next two months would be in the region of 16 or 17. This is marginally more than the ELLR of 15 or 16 if you followed all tips over the next 2 months. So estimated losing streaks really wouldn’t be that much different.

I’ll be tracking the success of following only the Trixie bets over the next few months. But GAMESDRAWS could be a useful addition to my Personal Portfolio – we’ll see.

 

Find out more about GAMESDRAWS here

 

 

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