This is the monthly update on the performance of, and the changes to, my Personal Tipster Portfolio.
February was a disaster. 365Tips suffered his worst month ever. All the portfolio profits got wiped out in one fell swoop.
But March came to the rescue and recovered those losses and put the portfolio back on track.
But there’s a lesson well and truly learned here.
I had been managing the betting stakes based on the performance of the portfolio as a whole.
This left the losses of 365Tips unchecked and it had a devastating effect on the whole portfolio.
The lesson learned is that betting stakes must be adjusted for each individual tipster in the portfolio based on their individual performance.
In retrospect, this seems obvious. However, sometimes things are only obvious when someone points them out. So I’m not going to be too hard on myself.
Looking at the 12-6-3 months performance for the tipsters in the portfolio it looks like Amigobet has flatlined. There is no real profit being made. So Amigobet is dropped.
It’s a similar picture for Profitablepicks and 365Tips. The plateaux are particularly evident in the 12-month graph. I’m going to be a bit ruthless here and drop both Profitablepicks and 365Tips too.
Batibet still looks like a good medium to long-term selection so is being kept.
I am adding one replacement to the portfolio – Zenith, a football tipster.
Here’s how this tipster has performed in the past.
I particularly like the consistency of this tipster. You can read the full technical analysis of Zenith.
January saw some relief turning a profit of approx. £1,700 which is good news.
In retrospect it’s been a swings-and-roundabouts six months with this low-risk portfolio.
And to be honest, personally, it’s been disappointing.
I feel now it’s time to broaden my portfolio and increase the risk exposure and introduce some more high-risk high-return tipsters.
Better Bettor goes.
Leaving Amigobet and Batibet coving football and basketball sports
Two new additions in horse racing will be 365-tips and Profitablepicks.
Stakes will continue for now at £7/pt.
I was too commited elsewhere to dedicate time to a full report in Dec’20.
Suffice to say it was a small losing month – disappointing – but I made no changes to the portfolio.
A disappointing month.
Dropping Mrjordan for this month was a good move. In November his average odds skyrocketed to 10.84 the highest ever and losing almost 20 points. Remember back to his first 10 months where the average odds were 1.87, he had 9 winning months from 10 and produced a profit of 308 points? It all seems to have gone horribly wrong for Mrjordan since he changed his approach.
Back to the tipsters in the portfolio – Amigobet, Batibet and Better Bettor – all recorded losses during the month.
At £7 per point stakes, the portfolio lost £734 and dropped from £10,103 to £9,369.
You have to expect ups and downs in this game.
And looking on the positive side we have gained £2,447 since starting the portfolio in June when the bank was sitting at £6,922.
So I’m keeping the faith and not changing anything for December – same tipsters – same stakes £7/pt.
October was a profitable month in spite of two losing tipsters.
Mrjordan lost -27pts. That’s two losing months in a row now for Mrjordan. And newly added Better Bettor had a small -3pts loss.
These losses were more than covered though by Batibet and Amigobet who together delivered just under 100pts profit.
At £7/pt stakes this translated into £192 profit for the month and takes the bank total to £10,103. Short of the forecast £10,800 but positive at least.
Mrjordan is dropped and the portfolio for November is Amigobet, Batibet and Better Bettor.
In May Mrjordan’s betting approach appears to have dramatically changed. Previously the average odds of his bets had been around 1.87 with a Win Rate of 64% but sInce then the odds have rocketed to an average of 5.75 with a Win Rate of 32%.
It’s clear from his stats that he has switched to tipping outsiders. Almost half of the tips over the past 6 months have been at odds of 4.00 (3/1) and above. Although that number has been decreasing and was down to 28% during October. Perhaps he is reassessing this new approach.
In May and June, the change to include tipping outsiders looked as if it was working out with 2 good profitable months. But since then, not so much – only one profitable month from four.
Consequently, for now, Mrjordan is dropped from the portfolio.
I’m sticking with Better Bettor even though he had a small losing month because the underlying indicators are still good.
Reduced Stakes to limit exposure
Bringing Batibet into the portfolio has practically doubled the number of bets per day. Consequently, the total points being bet on a daily basis has doubled. To limit the percentage of betting bank that is bet each day to under 10% the stakes must reduce to half of what they were previously.
With the current bank at £10,103 and the original bank at £620, the stakes would theoretically be £16 per point.
This must now be adjusted to £8 per point for November.
The Betting Bank at the end of October’20 is forecast to be £11,250
My decision last month to keep RugbyEyes anticipating a small profit during September was a bad decision. But keeping Amigobet was a good decision.
I should have simply written-off the RugbyEyes -4 points loss and dropped him. Instead, he ended the month with a -21 point loss.
But you have to live with your decisions so I’m taking it on the chin and moving on.
I wanted to keep the percentage of betting bank being staked each day to under 10%. This meant lowering the point stakes to £7 per point for the month.
Unfortunately, MrJordan, RughbyEyes and Batibet all lost me money during September. However, Amigobet continued his 100% profitable months with an +88 points profit. But it wasn’t enough to cover the other’s losses and I ended -£871 down for the month. (If I’d dropped RugbyEyes when I really should have I could have saved myself £376)
The portfolio will continue with Mrjordan, Batibet and Amigobet and also include Bettor Bettor.
I’m including Better Bettor for October. He’s been on my Candidates List for a while and his ROI has been improving over the 12-, 6- and 3-months periods. Tipstrr did an all-members promotional email recently on the 29th Sep re. “Better Bettor has been betting better than ever just recently“. It was a glowing report even though they got the number of consecutive profitable months wrong.
I’m keeping stakes at £7 per point though to be on the conservative side.
And the Betting Bank at the end of October’20 is forecast to be £10,800.
August brought some recovery to the portfolio bank. Stakes were kept at £11/point after July’s losses and I ended the month with a bank of £9,627
This was some £300 better than my projected £9,300 and the graphs might suggest that June’s 360-point £3,900 profit was an anomaly.
This is Amigobet’s second month in a row where ROI has been less than 1%. Perhaps I could find better value elsewhere but he’s yet to have a losing month so I’ve decided to give him the benefit of September to redeem himself.
What is clear though is that Sports Insider is no longer contributing sufficiently to the portfolio and will be replaced.
I’ve decided to replace Sports Insider with a tipster called Rugby’Eyes even though he’s just had a losing month in August. There are a number of reasons.
- His overall ROI over 16 months is currently 11.9% and has been increasing over the latest 12-, 6- and 3-month periods from 10.8%, 19.9%, and 20.8%
- I don’t like long losing runs so the ELLR of 9 hits the spot
- The fact that Rugby’Eyes is a free tipster (currently) outweighs a couple of concerns would ordinarily have with the borderline p-value and average Risk/Reward factor
- The monthly subscription cost of the portfolio is therefore reduced substantially from £107 to £58 per month which means I keep more of the profits
Portfolio for September
Rugby Union (27%)
Unit Stakes for September
Unit stakes for September will increase from £13 per point to £15 per point.
Bank Projection for Sep’20
The linear trendline projection indicates the betting bank reaching somewhere in the region of £10,500 by the end of Sep’20.
UPDATE 5 Sep’20: RugbyEyes has just switched to a paid subscription of £19 per month.
This now raises the importance of the borderline p-value and average Risk/Reward factor – see point 3 above.
This change also now drops him 6 places in my overall assessment model of all tipsters and there may now be better, more effective tipsters for my personal portfolio.
Right now, as of 5 Sep’20 RugbyEyes is down -4 points for the month.
The questions, therefore are :
- do I have a better tipster to switch to right now?
- if I do, do I switch right away, stop betting RugbyEyes and accept the -4 points loss?
- Or do I add the better tipster to the portfolio now and keep betting RugbyEyes tips trusting that he will go into profit sometime during Sep and then drop him from the portfolio?
Three better tipster possibilities are:
|Tipster||Sep||12 month ROI||6 month ROI||3-month ROI||ELLR||Risk/Reward||Tips/Day|
THE DECISION : Include Batibet in my Personal Portfolio and keep RugbyEyes anticipating a small profit during September.
Note: With an additional tipster comes more tips. More tips mean more money being staked each day. I will be adjusting the £/pt staking downwards so that no more than 10%, on average, of the betting bank will be staked each day.
Including Batibet is based on the following analysis.
BATIBET : September’s average odds have been 1.95 which matches well with the previous 7-month average odds of 1.93. Strike Rate average over the previous 7 months was 58% with good consistency between 52% and 67%. This month’s SR is well down at 37% and yet to have a losing month so I might anticipate a recovery in SR and a return to profit for the month. Currently, I have the betting bank and can afford the time and effort to handle the relatively high number of bets per day. I may need to adjust the unit stakes downwards however to reduce the daily bet exposure on the betting bank – I don’t want to be betting a high percentage of the bank every day.
BETTER BETTOR : The lowest number of bets per day and currently producing the best ROI of the three particularly over the most recent 6 months. August just about broke even but September seems to have started well. The Risk/Reward factor is the highest of the three and at 1.74 indicating I’d be taking more risk to get that higher ROI. But on balance its comparatively more risk and less reward.
ZENITH : Even though Zenith shows the biggest profit for Sep so far this is being driven by a high number of tips per day. Average odds for Sep have been 2.21 compared with an average of 2.44 for the previous 12 months.
Strike Rate for Sep is at 55% compared with a previous 12-month average of 43%.
Month-by-month profile of ROIs appears as 9 months of 4% on average interspersed with individual spikes of 3 separated months of higher ROI averaging 16%.
(Note: the figures presented here are rounded for readability)
OK, so this month brought me down to earth with a bit of a bump with the first losing month.
Amigobet was the only tipster posting a profit this month and a small one at that, only 7 points.
Mrjordan lost 30 points and Sports Insider had a horrible month losing a whopping 141 points.
The bottom line was a loss for the month of approx. £2,5000 – about 23% of the bank.
But it could have been worse.
It could have been a loss of £3,300 (30% of the bank) had I not made some adjustments to limit the betting exposure.
Reduced Stakes to limit exposure
Unit stakes for July had theoretically risen to £17 per point.
I anticipated 6 to 7 tips per day during July getting back to typical tip numbers before COVID-19.
At £17 per point, this would have meant average daily bets close to £1,200. Or over 10% of the available betting bank.
I wasn’t comfortable at that level of exposure so I reduced this to 8% which was the pre-COVID average.
The actual unit stake for July was then not the theoretical £17/pt but £13/pt. This gave an average daily bet outlay totaling around £900.
The actual losses for July were £2,500. This reduced the betting bank from £10,900 to £8,400.
Bank Projections for June and July
On the face of it, this level of loss might appear really bad. But looking at the broader picture the profits during June did look a little out of kilter.
In fact, as you can see from the graph above, using a linear trendline on the results to May’20 the projected bank at the end of June was around £7,300 and for Jul’20 just shy of £8,000.
June’s £10,890 bank was way above the projected £7,300.
The July bank now sitting at £7,600 after this losing month is not too far off the projected £8,000 so perhaps this is just a re-adjustment after June’s overly high figure.
Lookahead to August
Unit stakes for August plus any changes to the portfolio and how I anticipate the next month to turn out.
Unit Stakes for August
Unit stakes for August will reduce to June level of £11 per point.
Bank Projection for next month Aug’20
Looking forward to the next month of August. The linear trendline projection now indicates the betting bank reaching around £9,300.
It will be interesting to see how August pans out and whether the July loss was indeed an adjustment for the over-performance of June.
Anticipating recovering Sports Insider losses
Sports Insider has very recently been dropped from the Top 10 Tipsters List due to poor recent performance.
However, I’m keeping him in this portfolio for now because he has never had two losing months in a row.
So I anticipate him making a profit during August and I can recover at least some of his July losses.
But with only 3 profitable months from the last 6, he’ll be under close scrutiny and may well be replaced in this portfolio.
The big profits during June look like an anomaly.
The £4,000 profit is 8 times the monthly portfolio average of £550.
It was driven by very high ROIs from all 3 tipsters at once 39%, 41% and 64%.
This level of profit cannot be sustained.