outsiderspeedpicks has been providing Horse racing tips since May 2021 producing an excellent 23% ROI with 23 profitable months from 29 total months tipping ( 79% profitable ).
On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £2 per day.
Analysing different historical time periods shows a 100% probability of making a profit with outsiderspeedpicks over all consecutive 6 month periods.
Since joining Tipstrr in May 2021, outsiderspeedpicks has made a total cumulative profit of £11,321
TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : HIGH
Outsiderspeedpicks‘s statistical p-value is 0.0017 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s an extremely low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.
LOSING STREAKS : LONG
How long will losing streaks be?
Over 29 months there have been 2092 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 18%. This gives an ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 39. In other words you should have been prepared for 39 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.
With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for the following:
- In the next month: At least one run of 21 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 28 losing tips.
- During the next 6 months: At least one run of 31 losing tips.
TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.
Outsiderspeedpicks‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.79 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.
VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD
Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?
outsiderspeedpicks’s overall ROI is 23%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £19. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.84 which is great value.
Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.
BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE
How much am I likely to be betting every day?
£1.50 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 23% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 pt. you’d need to be betting at £1.50 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.
£10 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £10 per point. This means betting in the region of £20 a day.
N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip might change.
BETTING BANK SIZE : 60pts
How much money do I need to start with?
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This is sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The first month betting bank size for outsiderspeedpicks would be around 60 points.
So, if you were betting at £10 /pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £600.
EXPECTANCY : POOR
How long before I can expect to make profit?
1 MONTH: If you’d followed Outsiderspeedpicks for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 79% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 530 points profit versus an average loss of -170 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 79% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 7 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 980 points profit versus an average loss of -150 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 85% chance you’d make a profit. You were 6 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 7 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1330 points profit versus an average loss of -190 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Profit||Avg.Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||29||23||6||79%||530||-170||385||11|
|any 2 months||28||22||6||79%||980||-150||737||24|
|any 3 months||27||23||4||85%||1330||-190||1104||40|
|any 4 months||26||23||3||88%||1720||-120||1507||110|
|any 5 months||25||24||1||96%||2020||-10||1938||4848|
|any 6 months||24||24||0||100%||2390||0||2390||2390|
Find out more about Outsiderspeedpicks here
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