Horse Racing tipster since January 2021.
The Source has produced an excellent 23% ROI with 14 profitable months from 20 total months tipping – 70% success rate.
On average there’s 1 tip per day typically advised at 2 pt. which means, at £10 per point, you’d be betting around £20 per day.
Skill Factor: VERY HIGH
The p-value, which gives a measure of how likely it is these results to be achieved purely by chance is 0.0000 ( to 4 decimal places ).
This indicates its extremely unlikely The Source’s results could be achieved by pure chance..
Losing Streaks: SHORT
The all-time tip Win Rate over 502 tips has been 44%.
You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 6 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 8 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 10 losing tips.
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.
The Source’s coefficient of variation figure is 1.81 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
The monthly subscription cost is reasonable at £27 per month so with an ROI of 23% this means each 1% of ROI costs £1.18 which is good value.
However, taking a 3-month or 6-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper. If things work out then the subscription cost will not eat into your profits as much. And if it doesn’t go to plan you can always cancel and get a refund.
Staking Levels: REASONABLE
£1.90 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 23% ROI from 1 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 2 pt. you’d need to be betting at £1.90 per point just to cover the £27 subscription cost.
£8.80 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £8.80 per point. This means betting in the region of £20 a day.
N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.
Betting Bank: 58pts
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The betting bank size for The Source would be around 58 points.
So, if you were betting at £8.80/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £550.
1 MONTH: If you’d followed The Source for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 74% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 247 points profit versus an average loss of -206 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 83% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 353 points profit versus an average loss of -237 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 82% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 469 points profit versus an average loss of -179 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total Periods||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Period Profit||Avg.Period Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||19||14||5||74%||247||-206||127||1|
|any 2 months||18||15||3||83%||353||-237||254||1|
|any 3 months||17||14||3||82%||469||-179||354||2|
|any 4 months||16||14||2||88%||522||-38||452||13|
|any 5 months||15||15||0||100%||567||0||567||567|
|any 6 months||14||14||0||100%||671||0||671||671|
Find out more about The Source here
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