HACKUP: 18% ROI at Betfair Starting Prices

A relative newcomer to the Tipstrr platform, horse racing tipster HACKUP caught my eye with six out of six consecutive months profit since starting.

A Win Rate around 45%, ROI above 20% and and average monthly profit of over 100 points should definitely spark anyone’s interest.

This is being delivered from two tips a day (so its very easy to follow) on an average odds of 3.3 with mostly Race Winners with the odd Each-way tip.

But, what really seals the deal  for me is the 18% ROI to Betfair Starting Prices (BSP) – no mad rush to get the odds before they vanish.

Since joining Tipstrr in October 2023, Hackup has made a total cumulative profit of £885

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : UNCERTAIN

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

Hackup’s p-value is 0.0039 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 0% probability these results are down to luck.

This indicates that it is extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance

There’s not enough data, just yet however, to say whether this a reliable figure or not.

LOSING STREAKS : VERY SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

Over 6 months there have been 357 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 46%. This gives an ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 10. In other words you should have been prepared for 10 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.

With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for the following:

• In the next month: At least one run of 7 losing tips.
• Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 9 losing tips.
• During the next 6 months: At least one run of 10 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.

Hackup‘s coefficient of variation figure is 0.69 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

The monthly subscription cost is low at £19 per month so with an ROI of 23% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.84 which is great value.

However, taking a 3-month or 6-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper. If things work out then the subscription cost will not eat into your profits as much. And if it doesn’t go to plan you can always cancel and get a refund.

BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

Knowing the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what ROI is going to be. It might even be negative – a losing month.

But doing the calculation can provide an indication of the scale of betting levels – will it be something like £10 a day or more like £100 a day.

To cover subscription costs £0.20 per point
Based on the 23% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 9 points you’d need to be betting at £0.20 per point to cover the £19 monthly subscription cost.

£1.00 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make around £100 clear profit a month the staking levels would need to be in the region of £1.00 per point. At this level you’d be betting about £20 a day.

This is just to give you a scale of things. It will  never work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 180pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for Hackup would be 180 points.

So, if you were betting at £1/pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £180 – £200. Which I think is very afforable.

EXPECTANCY : VERY GOOD

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 120 points profit.

2 MONTH: Every consecutive 2 month period since this service started has been profitable and you would have made an average of 220 points profit.

3 MONTH: Every consecutive 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months you’d have made an average of 310 points profit.

Find out more about Hackup here

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