3 Tipster Portfolio – LIVE tracking

   

 

July Strategy

Following the May 2026 performance of this portfolio we decided the model required a ceiling on the percentage of bank risked on a daily basis. For July the maximum daily exposure limit was kept at 7% of bank. The average daily exposure was 6.73% – much more comfortable levels.

July in Numbers

• June Balance: £905
• Subscriptions: £97
• Betting Bank: £808
• Total Bets: 512
• ROI: 7%
• Ending Bank: £928
• Month Profit/Loss: £120

July 2026 P&L SVB: +£113  +  TLE: -£87  +  VB+:  + £94 = Total  Profit of +£120

• AVERAGE daily percentage of bank at risk in bets was = 6.73%
• MAXIMUM daily percentage of bank at risk in bets was = 8.21%
• SVB max.total staked/day = £33.94 – Avg.Bet = £6.34
• TLE max. total staked/day = £16.97 – Avg.Bet = £6.64
• VB+ max. total staked/day = £5.66 – Avg.Bet = £1.77

For Aug’26: Only changes are the total stake risked per day increases in line with the increase in the betting bank.

Updated: 31st May 2026

May 2026 was the “proof of concept” month for the Mixed Sport Portfolio, and the results were a reassuring validation of the model. Starting with a modest £500 fund and using “micro-stakes” designed to stay under the bookies’ radar, the portfolio delivered a £218 profit – a 26% ROI.

The most fascinating takeaway? The win rate (28%) and returns landed almost exactly where our Monte Carlo simulations predicted.

The Month in Numbers

• Starting Bank: £500 (£403 after £97 subscriptions)
• Total Bets: 572
• Return on Investment (ROI): 26%
• Ending Bank: £621 (Heading into June with £524 after fees)

While SVB over-delivered on win rate and VB+ saw a surge in tip volume (7/day vs. the expected 4), the portfolio’s diversification smoothed out the bumps.

The Month in Pictures

Note: See The 3-Tipster Portfolio: How Monte Carlo Simulation Cut the Fat and Boosted ROI for details on the design of this portfolio. 1st May 2026: A £500 fund was allocated to this portfolio. Total tipster subscription was £97. This left a £403 betting bank. Staking was set at: SVB – £2.62/bet; TLE – £1.31/bet; VB+ – £0.44/bet and unchanged for the whole month. This is excellent for staying under the bookie radar and looking like a recreational punter. 31st May 2026: Based on these fixed stakes: the end-of-month ROI was 26% and the Win Rate was 28% (158 Winning Bets + 414 Losing Bets). This is very much in line with the Monte Carlo simulations in the The 3-Tipster Portfolio post predicting ROI = 31% and Win Rate 28% SVB was pretty much bang on the number of tips for the month but over-delivered on the Win Rate – an actual Win Rate of 43% versus the 33.4% Monte Carlo figure. TLE published 116 tips against an expected 62 and under-performed slightly with a 36% win rate against an anticipated 40%. VB+ win rate was expected around 11% but actual was 9%. Expectation was 4 tips/day but on average was over 7/day. (238 versus estimated 140).

Tipster	Expected Win Rate	Actual Win Rate	Expected ROI	Actual ROI	Performance
SVB Tips	33%	43%	27%	26%	High WR / Stable ROI
TLE	40%	36%	15%	17%	High Volume / Slight Over-perf
ValueBet+	11%	9%	46%	40%	High Vol / Expected Variance
TOTAL	28%	28%	31%	26%	On Target

 

Month Profits

Total profit for the month was £218. The bank currently sits at £621 giving us a 26% ROI and a 43% Return On Capital (ROC) in a single month. This pays for next month’s subscriptions (£97) and leaves £524 in the betting bank for June.

Month Risks

The percentage of bank staked on any one day was: Maximum: 17% on Saturday 2nd May when there were 46 tips from the portfolio. While the strategy has no hard cap, this felt high. Minimum:  1% – some days had zero tips from two of the three tipsters. Average: 5.3% – the generally accepted wisdom is to only risk 1 – 2% of your betting bank on tipsters – but we are not following a single set of tips – we are following a well-designed portfolio here with a Monte Carlo simulated maxiumum drawdown of 40 units and a risk of ruin of less than 0.01% on a 200 unit bankroll.

Comparison Of Staking Approaches

The table compares the following staking approaches:

• Fixed Stakes every day.
• Stakes adjusted weekly based on percentage increase/decrease of available betting bank.
• 1/4 Kelly Staking starting with bank split equally between the three tipsters (£134.33 each) and adjusted weekly.

 

Element	Stakes Fixed all month	Stakes Adj. Wkly	1/4 Kelly Adj. Wkly
SVB Stake	2.62	2.62 – 4.22	£4.40 – £15.66
TLE Stake	1.31	1.31 – 2.11	£2.35 – £3.11
VB+ Stake	0.44	0.44 – 0.70	£1.37 – £3.29
Stakes	£826	£1,033	£2,698
Profit	£218	£262	£538
ROI	26%	25%	20%

 

The results tell a story of risk vs. reward:

• Fixed Stakes: £218 profit (26% ROI). The “slow and steady” baseline.
• Weekly Adjusted: £262 profit (25% ROI). Compounding in action.
• 1/4 Kelly (Adjusted weekly): £538 profit (20% ROI). Huge upside, but high volatility—including a £210 drawdown in the final week – that’s nearly 33% gone in a week .

Conclusion & Next Steps

May results align closely with the Monte Carlo simulation findings and are a significant step forward in validating my approach. More tips are published at weekends than week days and TLE and VB+ published significantly more tips this month than expected from the previous quarter average.

 

June Strategy

The model works, but the human element (and the bookie’s eye) requires a ceiling. For June, I am reviewing a Daily Exposure Cap – perhaps 10 – 12%. If the tip volume exceeds this, stakes will be scaled proportionally to maintain the mathematical edge without the ‘Black Swan’ risk.