Updated: 31st May 2026
May 2026 was the “proof of concept” month for the Mixed Sport Portfolio, and the results were a reassuring validation of the model. Starting with a modest £500 fund and using “micro-stakes” designed to stay under the bookies’ radar, the portfolio delivered a £218 profit – a 26% ROI.
The most fascinating takeaway? The win rate (28%) and returns landed almost exactly where our Monte Carlo simulations predicted.
Read how this portfolio was developed and optimised →
The Month in Numbers
- Starting Bank: £500 (£403 after £97 subscriptions)
- Total Bets: 572
- Return on Investment (ROI): 26%
- Ending Bank: £621 (Heading into June with £524 after fees)
While SVB over-delivered on win rate and VB+ saw a surge in tip volume (7/day vs. the expected 4), the portfolio’s diversification smoothed out the bumps.
The Month in Pictures
The 3 Tipster Mixed Sport Portfolio
- The Least Expected (TLE)
- SVB Tips (SVB)
- ValueBet+ (VB+)
Note: See The 3-Tipster Portfolio: How Monte Carlo Simulation Cut the Fat and Boosted ROI for details on the design of this portfolio.
1st May 2026:
A £500 fund was allocated to this portfolio. Total tipster subscription was £97. This left a £403 betting bank.
Staking was set at: SVB – £2.62/bet; TLE – £1.31/bet; VB+ – £0.44/bet and unchanged for the whole month.
This is excellent for staying under the bookie radar and looking like a recreational punter.
31st May 2026:
Based on these fixed stakes: the end-of-month ROI was 26% and the Win Rate was 28% (158 Winning Bets + 414 Losing Bets). This is very much in line with the Monte Carlo simulations in the The 3-Tipster Portfolio post predicting ROI = 31% and Win Rate 28%
SVB was pretty much bang on the number of tips for the month but over-delivered on the Win Rate – an actual Win Rate of 43% versus the 33.4% Monte Carlo figure.
TLE published 116 tips against an expected 62 and under-performed slightly with a 36% win rate against an anticipated 40%.
VB+ win rate was expected around 11% but actual was 9%. Expectation was 4 tips/day but on average was over 7/day. (238 versus estimated 140).
| Tipster | Expected Win Rate | Actual Win Rate | Expected ROI | Actual ROI | Performance |
| SVB Tips | 33% | 43% | 27% | 26% | High WR / Stable ROI |
| TLE | 40% | 36% | 15% | 17% | High Volume / Slight Over-perf |
| ValueBet+ | 11% | 9% | 46% | 40% | High Vol / Expected Variance |
| TOTAL | 28% | 28% | 31% | 26% | On Target |
Month Profits
Total profit for the month was £218. The bank currently sits at £621 giving us a 26% ROI and a 43% Return On Capital (ROC) in a single month.
This pays for next month’s subscriptions (£97) and leaves £524 in the betting bank for June.
Month Risks
The percentage of bank staked on any one day was:
Maximum: 17% on Saturday 2nd May when there were 46 tips from the portfolio. While the strategy has no hard cap, this felt high.
Minimum: 1% – some days had zero tips from two of the three tipsters.
Average: 5.3% – the generally accepted wisdom is to only risk 1 – 2% of your betting bank on tipsters – but we are not following a single set of tips – we are following a well-designed portfolio here with a Monte Carlo simulated maxiumum drawdown of 40 units and a risk of ruin of less than 0.01% on a 200 unit bankroll.
Comparison Of Staking Approaches
The table compares the following staking approaches:
- Fixed Stakes every day.
- Stakes adjusted weekly based on percentage increase/decrease of available betting bank.
- 1/4 Kelly Staking starting with bank split equally between the three tipsters (£134.33 each) and adjusted weekly.
| Element | Stakes Fixed all month | Stakes Adj. Wkly | 1/4 Kelly Adj. Wkly |
| SVB Stake | 2.62 | 2.62 – 4.22 | £4.40 – £15.66 |
| TLE Stake | 1.31 | 1.31 – 2.11 | £2.35 – £3.11 |
| VB+ Stake | 0.44 | 0.44 – 0.70 | £1.37 – £3.29 |
| Stakes | £826 | £1,033 | £2,698 |
| Profit | £218 | £262 | £538 |
| ROI | 26% | 25% | 20% |
The results tell a story of risk vs. reward:
- Fixed Stakes: £218 profit (26% ROI). The “slow and steady” baseline.
- Weekly Adjusted: £262 profit (25% ROI). Compounding in action.
- 1/4 Kelly (Adjusted weekly): £538 profit (20% ROI). Huge upside, but high volatility—including a £210 drawdown in the final week – that’s nearly 33% gone in a week .
Conclusion & Next Steps
May results align closely with the Monte Carlo simulation findings and are a significant step forward in validating my approach.
More tips are published at weekends than week days and TLE and VB+ published significantly more tips this month than expected from the previous quarter average.
June Strategy
The model works, but the human element (and the bookie’s eye) requires a ceiling. For June, I am reviewing a Daily Exposure Cap – perhaps 10 – 12%. If the tip volume exceeds this, stakes will be scaled proportionally to maintain the mathematical edge without the ‘Black Swan’ risk.