2024

This is the monthly update on the performance of, and the changes to, my Personal Tipster Portfolio for 2024.
Starting on Jan 1st with a betting bank of £1,000.

 


May’24: Profit: £68  Bank: £1,542

 

END OF MONTH ROUNDUP:
SVB Football Tips made £368 profit in May. Unfortunately Footballer Tips and Hackup managed to lose most of that leaving me just £68 profit for the month.

 

Selective-Odds HACKUP didn’t pay off:
Being selective with Hackup tips (only bet Winner tips where advised odds are between 2.00 to 6.99 and only bet Each Ways tips below advised odds of 10) didn’t pay off.

 

There were 9 “to win” tips advised at odds under 2.00 which made profit 11.27.

 

There were 9 Each-way tips advised at odds of 10 or over that made a profit of 39 pts at advised odds or 43 pts profit at BSP.

 

The real killer here was one of the each-way tips that I discarded was a race winner that netted 108 pts profit at advised odds or 133 pts profit at BSP (22May 18.00 Kempton Botas)

 

Here’s how my selective-odds approach compared to HACKUP’s full service for May.

Tips WR P/L ROI AvgOdds
Portfolio 64 32% -67.6 -10.09% 4.25
HACKUP 82 27% -0.90 -0.1% 4.33

 

FOR JUNE: 75% of HACKUP tips lie in the selective odds range I’ve chosen. And that’s where all of the profit is coming from. So right now I’m sticking with my selective odds for HACKUP. (I might change my mind if I miss another big winner like Botas!)

 

The high number of tips in April from Footballer Tips was not an anomaly. He posted an average of 11 tips a day during May just like April. I need to adjust staking to assume this is the new trend.

 

SVB Tips had a very good month from the football tips – a 46% Win Rate and a 38% ROI.

 

Staking for June:

Football Tips: £2 / point equates to £15 per bet.
SVB Tips: £3 / point equates to £20 per bet.
Hackup: £3 / point equates to £30 per bet.

Apr’24: Profit: -£4  Bank: £1,474

 

8 APR UPDATE: Both tipsters on a downward trend. Loses so far this month £453. Bank just above starting point at £1,024. Major concern about Footballer Tips – less so with SVB.

Footballer Tips most recent 3 months looks as follows:

Month ▾ Tips Win rate Profit ROI Avg. odds
74 32% -145.60 units -19.7% 2.58
119 35% -168.10 units -14.1% 2.57
111 35% -161.60 units -14.6% 2.54

Win Rate of 32% continues to be less than what’s required to produce a profit. And 74 tips in 8 days is an average of 9 tips per day which is over twice the 4 tips/day I was anticipating. Looks like Footballer tips is losing money fast.

DECISION: I’m pausing Footballer Tips until further notice. I’m keeping betting SVB at current stakes.

 

14 APR UPDATE: Footballer Tips has recovered well over the past 10 days and I will resume following.

 

END OF MONTH UPDATE: Pausing Footballer Tips was a mistake. If I’d stuck with it I would have made a small profit. As it was I lost money for the month. SVB Tips made £192 profit from a 7.7% ROI on just the football tips. His average monthly ROI is around 20%.
My estimate of 4 tips a day from Footballer Tips was badly wrong – he published 350 tips for the month – that’s roughly 11 tips a day! For estimation purposes I’m treating this as an anomaly.

Bottom line –  a relatively poor month.

 

FOR MAY: For those who have been following thebetinvestor you’ll have seen that racing tipster HACKUP has impressed me recently. I’ve decided to include him in my portfolio for May but I’m being selective on which tips I’ll bet. You can catch up on my decision making process from the following two posts HACKUP: 18% ROI at Betfair Starting Prices and HACKUP: selective betting makes 34% ROI

Staking for May:

Football Tips: £1 / point equates to £10 per bet.
SVB Tips: £2 / point equates to £10 per bet.
Hackup: £3 / point equates to £30 per bet.


Mar’24: Profit: £90  Bank: £1,478

 

The portfolio produced a small profit this month.
Footballer Tips left us with a £504 loss over the month. He’s now had 2 consecutive losing months – that’s a first. Until now any of his 4 losing months had always followed by a profitable month.
On the plus side, SVB-Tips delivered a 14.6% ROI to offset this loss with a profit of £594.

 

FOR APRIL:

I’m looking forward to Footballer Tips return to profitable ways next month and continued success from SVB Tips.
The number of tips from SVB rose significantly in February. I’m estimating 4 tips per day from each of the tipsters which works the stakes out £2/pt (£20/tip) for Footballer Tips and £4/pt (£20/tip) for SVB.

 

Since dropping Underdog Racing Tips any profit the portfolio has made has been small – primarily because football ROI’s are lower than racing ROIs. So I’ve been thinking to either add a further football tipster or a horse racing tipster. I’ll decide that during April.


Feb’24: Profit: £112  Bank: £1,388

 

An unusual poor month from Footballer Tips with a -14% ROI and a £323 loss.
However, SVB-Tips got back to his typical ROI range producing £435 profit from a 24% ROI.
Overall, a £112 profit for the month.

 

FOR MARCH:

I anticipate Footballer Tips will return to profitable ways next month.
I’m increasing the daily risk from the very conservative 5% of bank to 10% of bank.
And with the slight increase in bank this allows us to increase stakes by a small amount.
Stakes for Footballer Tips will go to £3 per point (£30/tip) and SVB to £5 per point (£25/tip).

Jan’24: Profit: £276  Bank: £1,276

 

Starting 2024 where we left off in 2023 continuing with tipsters Footballer Tips and SVB Tips (football only). They produced a combined profit of £14,000 over the 12 months of 2023.

 

N.B. Underdog Racing Tips has been dropped for 2024 due the continual struggle during 2023 to get the advised odds.

 

Based on the previous quarter, Footballer Tips is currently tipping at an average rate of 4 tips per day at 10 points per tip while SVB is 3 tips per day at 5 points per tip. This equates to 55 points staked daily. To limit the daily bet exposure to around 5% of bank and investing equally with both tipsters the stakes will be £1/pt for Footballer Tips and £2/pt on SVB Tips (football only tips – no horse racing tips)

 

UPDATE END OF MONTH:

Footballer Tips made a 23% ROI and £216 profit during January which is well above his average performance. SVB on the other hand had a good first half of the month but ended up under-performing producing only £60 profit from a 7.8% ROI.

 

FOR FEBRUARY:

The increase in bank and the slight drop in number of tips allows us to increase stakes by a small amount. Footballer Tips will go to £2 per point and SVB to £3 per point.