2023

This is the monthly update on the performance of, and the changes to, my Personal Tipster Portfolio for 2023.
Starting on Jan 1st with a betting bank of £1,000.

 

SUMMARY FOR THE YEAR

Full tipster portfolio produced £70,000 profit

The year’s profit of £70,000 reflects what was theoretically possible. It assumes the availability of advised odds, no bookmaker account limitations, no liquidity limits on exchanges and the ability to place bets of up to £250.

The graph and table below shows how this played out over the 12 months.

Reduced tipster portfolio produced £14,000 profit

Tracking each of the tipsters shows that getting the advised odds for Underdog Racing was a continual struggle.

There was however no problem getting the advised odds for the football tips from Footballer Tips and SVB Tips.

The portfolio without Underdog Tips and including only Footballer and SVB would have produced the results as shown below.

Profit for the year would have been over £14,700 and stakes would have been limited to a much more modest £60 per bet at most.

This is a very achievable outcome and a much more conservative approach which I will be taking into 2024.

Dec’23:

Profit: £3,337  Bank: £71,397

December finished off with relatively poor overall profit.
Underdog Racing made practically zero profit for the month but thanks to Footballer Tips and SVB football tips the portfolio made over £3,300 profit.

Nov’23: Profit: £8,464  Bank: £68,060

UPDATE END OF MONTH:
A solid performance from all three tipsters.
Underdog Racing Tips returned an ROI of only 10% with SVB Tips and Footballer Tips providing solid performance with ROI’s over 20%.

 

FOR DECEMBER:
The number of tips from Footballer Tips was below estimated for this month so the increase in betting bank drives the increased stakes for all three tipsters for December as follows:

Footballer Tips: £15/pt   Underdog Racing Tips: £4/pt   SVB-Tips (Football tips only): £50/pt

Oct’23: Profit: £19,629  Bank: £59,596

UPDATE 14Oct23: Underdog Racing Tips is having an absolutely incredible month so far with 105% ROI !

Month ▾ Tips Win rate Profit ROI Avg. odds
108 9% 2276.20 units 105.9% 16.57

The mathematics suggests that Underdog Racing‘s ROI will revert to somewhere closer to his average 44% ROI. If it did revert to the average the profit would be less than the current 2276 points and I’d have wasted time, effort and stakes I could have placed on the other two tipsters who appear to be following their typical ROIs.

UPDATE END OF MONTH:
What an incredible month (again!) for Underdog Racing Tips coming out with a 92% ROI. Footballer tips was marginally down at 12.5% ROI and SVB Tips (football only) maintained his typical 20% ROI for the month.

FOR NOVEMBER:
Number of tips from each tipster in October was close to the estimates so changes to stakes for November are driven by the increased betting bank.

Footballer Tips: £10/pt   Underdog Racing Tips: £3/pt   SVB-Tips (Football tips only): £40/pt


Sep’23:  Profit: £11,695  Bank: £39,966

 

Another good profitable month for all tipsters in the portfolio.
Footballer tips made 15% ROI – in line with his overall 12% ROI headline figure.
Underdog Racing Tips produced 34% – the third month in a row of over 30% ROI
SVB delivered 20% ROI on his football-only tips.

 

FOR OCTOBER:
The increased number of tips from Footballer Tips and Underdog Racing are expected to continue. The staking will therefore be adjusted as follows: Footballer Tips: £8/pt  Underdog Racing £3/pt and SVB £30/pt


Aug’23:  Profit: £9,685  Bank: £28,271

 

Yet another great month for all tipsters in the portfolio.
Footballer tips 20% ROI , Underdog Racing Tips 32% and SVB with 42% ROI on his football tips only.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:
The profit results of this portfolio based on the current staking model must now be considered theoretical only. Its difficult to sustain the size of bets (now up to £150/bet) in the real world.
A more practical approach would be to withdraw cash from the betting bank at appropriate points. For example once the bank reached e.g. £5,000 to withdraw £4,000 resetting the bank to £1,000 again and continuing.
If we’d done this from the start of the year then we would have withdrawn almost £17,000. Bet stakes would have averaged £15. And the bank would be reset to £1,000 heading into September ’23.

START
BANK
FOOTBALLER
£ / BET
UNDERDOG
£ / BET
SVB
£ / BET
END
BANK
WITH-
DRAWN
Jan £1,000 £5 / £10 £10 / £20 £378
Feb £378 £10 £20 / £40 £10 £1,630
Mar £1,630 £10 / £20 £0 / £20 £15 / £30 £2670
Apr £2,670 £20 £20 £25 £5,706 £4,706
May £1,000 £10 £20 £10 £4,477
Jun £4,477 £10 £20 £25 £8,076 £7,076
Jul £1,000 £10 £20 £10 £3,058
Aug £3,058 £10 £20 £20 £5,938 £4,938
Sep £1,000
Total £16,720

 

FOR SEPTEMBER:
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” – same tipsters but stakes increase again based on a daily bet exposure of 5% (max) of the available bank and anticipated numbers of tips for the month.
Footballer Tips: £10/pt   Underdog Racing Tips: £3/pt   SVB-Tips (Football tips only): £30/pt

Jul’23:  Profit: £4,571  Bank: £18,585

 

A great month for Footballer tips and Underdog Racing Tips with profits of £1,220 and £1,390 respectively and ROI’s of 29% and 39%. After a great start, the month ended with a relatively underpar performance from SVB‘s football tips with 14% ROI and £1,960 profit.

FOR AUGUST:
Same tipsters but upping the stakes based on a daily bet exposure of 5% (max) of the available bank and anticipated numbers of tips for the month. Footballer Tips: £5/pt   Underdog Racing Tips: £2/pt   SVB-Tips (Football tips only): £20/pt

Jun’23:  Profit: £4,268  Bank: £14,014

 

UPDATE 15JUN23: Footballer Tips is having another poor start to the month with practically zero profit. SVB Tips is at 29% ROI and £480 profit. Underdog Racing Tips who I expected not to do so well this month and is proving me wrong has posted a 65% ROI and over £900 profit.

UPDATE END-OF-MONTH:
An average month for Footballer tips with £378 profit and 14% ROI.
Underdog Racing Tips has another incredible month with a 84% ROI producing almost £3,000 profit.
SVB Tips football-only tips had a very good month delivering 30% ROI and £960 profit.

FOR JULY:
Same tipsters but upping the stakes based on a daily bet exposure of 5% (max) of the available bank and anticipated numbers of tips for the month.
Footballer Tips: £3/pt   Underdog Racing Tips: £1/pt   SVB-Tips (Football tips only): £15/pt

May’23:  Profit: £4,039  Bank: £9,746

 

UPDATE 15MAY23: Footballer Tips is having a relatively poor month with only a 2% ROI and £55 profit. SVB Tips is keeping up his average of 20% ROI which has produced a solid £390 profit. But its Underdog Racing Tips who is having another storming month with an 88% ROI and an amazing £2,250 profit. Total profit so far this month = £2,700.

UPDATE END-OF-MONTH:
Footballer tips had a poor start to the month but came good at the end for a £550 profit on an 8% ROI.
Underdog Racing Tips has another incredible month with a 54% ROI producing over £3,000 profit.
SVB Tips had a poor(ish) month of 8% ROI and £350 profit.

FOR JUNE:
Even though the bank has almost doubled since April I’m keeping the exact same staking predominantly because the total number of tips has risen significantly and I want to keep the daily bet exposure to under 5% of the existing bank. I also think Underdog Racing Tips will not sustain the last two months outstanding performance and that ROI and profits will drop.

Apr’23:  Profit: £3,036  Bank: £5,706

 

SVB Tips underperformed with 2% ROI. Footballer Tips had an average month producing 8% ROI. But it was Underdog Racing who delivered the lions share of a very good profitable month.

FOR MAY:
Keeping exposure of the current bank to around 5% daily and spreading stakes equally across all three tipsters suggests £2/point for Footballer Tips; £1/pt for Underdog Racing; and  with £10/point for SVB.

 

Mar’23:  Profit: £1,040  Bank: £2,670

 

UPDATE 11MAR23: Bank sits at just over £2,400. Footballer Tips might be dragging his feet with only 1.9% ROI so far in March but Underdog and SVB are performing unbelievably.
Underdog has produced 71% ROI and over £500 profit and SVB has delivered 80% ROI and £205 profit.

INTERESTING NOTE (AGAIN!)

  • I would anticipate both Underdog and SVB each to produce £480 profit this month. Underdog has already hit that target and SVB is half way there with two-thirds of the month to go.
  • Should I simply bank the Underdog profits and stop following those tips on the expectation that his ROI will revert to the average 39% which would mean there would be more losses than profits for the rest of the month? And if I did stop betting Underdog I could divert those stakes to increasing Footballer Tips and SVB stakes for the rest of the month.

What would you do?

MY DECISION:  Stop following Underdog and increase Footballer stake to £2/pt and SVB tips to £6/pt

We shall see if this is a wise move as the month progresses.

 

UPDATE 18MAR23: One week on after decision and bank has grown by £500 to an impressive £2,923. Without making that change the bank would be almost £400 lower at £2,533.
As I anticipated, Footballer Tips ROI has improved from the 1.9% to 30.9% and Underdog Racing Tips profit has dropped £130 from £556 to £426.

UPDATE END-OF-MONTH: Decision to stop following Underdog was marginally beneficial.

 

FOR APRIL:
Keeping exposure of the current bank to around 5% daily and spreading stakes equally across all three tipsters suggests £2/point for Footballer Tips; £1/pt for Underdog Racing; and  with £5/point for SVB.

Feb’23:  Profit: £1,252  Bank: £1,630

 

UPDATE 13Feb23: Its good to see the betting bank recovering to £558 but there’s a ways to go yet.
With the increase in betting bank I will now change the stakesas follows:
Footballer Tips: remains at £1/pt
Underdog Racing Tips : increased from £1/pt to £2/pt
SVB Tips: increased from £1/pt to £2/pt

 

INTERESTING NOTE:
I chose SVB Tips anticipating a 20% ROI on the football tips and at 2 tips per day and stakes of 5 point per bet that would translate into 60 units profit.
At the end of day 4, the 4th Feb, the ROI stood at 113% with a profit of 34 points.
Should I have just stopped betting these tips, saved my self the effort and settled for 34 points profit instead of 60?
Statistically, the ROI should decrease and tend towards the 20% norm over the rest of the month.

 

UPDATE END-OF-MONTH: Solid performances from Footballer Tips and SVB ‘s football plus a pretty stellar recovery by Underdog Racing puts the betting bank in a healthy position heading into March.

 

FOR MARCH:
Numbers of tips from Footballer Tips and Underdog Racing was significantly up this month.
Keeping exposure of the bank to around 5% daily and spreading stakes equally across all three tipsters suggests £1/point for Footballer Tips and Underdog Racing with £3/point for SVB.

 

 

Jan’23:  Profit: -£622  Bank: £378

 

Starting 2023 where we left off in 2022 with tipsters Footballer Tips and Underdog Racing.

 

Based on the previous quarter, Footballer tips is currently tipping at a rate of 6 tips per day while Underdog Racing is 3 tips per day. Both operate advised stakes of 10 points (or units) which indicates a total daily stake outlay of 90 points (or units).
To limit the daily bet exposure to under 10% of bank and investing equally with both tipsters the stakes will be £1/pt for Footballer Tips and £2/pt on Underdog Racing.

 

UPDATE 18Jan23: Both tipsters are providing losses so far this month. The portfolio has suffered a loss of £600 to date.
Footballer Tips’ WIn Rate is down 25% on his average and Underdog Racing down 50%.
To limit the impact to the betting bank I’m reducing Underdog Racing from £2/pt to £1/pt  but keeping Footballer Tips at £1/pt.

UPDATE 24Jan23: Both tipsters continue to provide losses. The £1,000 starting bank is now down to £161.
Its time to reduce both tipsters to £0.50 / pt. and trust there will be some recovery in the last week of January.
Making a profit in January 2023 looks very unlikely at this stage.

UPDATE END-OF-MONTH: There was some recovery in the last week but the bank lost £622 in January and sits at £378.
If I had kept the staking to £1/pt the bank would be sitting £220 better off at £594. But hindsight is a wonderful thing. We have to take the rough with the smooth and move on.

 

FOR FEBRUARY:
The stats for both tipsters are still solid so I see no reason to drop them.
I’m adding SVB Tips to the portfolio but betting only on the football tips which have historically delivered better ROI than the horse racing tips.
And with the bank at £378 I’m keeping stakes to £1/pt initially