Around the Orange Ball, shortened to OrangeBall in this report, is focused on basketball only.
Their goal is to be profitable over a long period, using a simple but effective flat staking plan.
November’20 completes a full year of tipping and over 1200 tips – a solid results history for detailed analysis.
Nine of the 11 completed full months to date have been profitable and produced an average of 135 points profit per month. The 2 losing months were very much smaller.
The headline stats are impressive: a 58% Win Rate on average odds of 1.99 producing an ROI of 10.5%.
And the ROIs over 12-, 6- and most recent 3 months indicate strong consistency.
- Good ROI
- Short losing runs
- Low betting bank required
- Nothing significant
Overview of service
Summary: OrangeBall publishes basketball tips mostly in the Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets.
On average there are around 6 tips per day advised at a 10 points bet and published well in advance of the event.
Odds typically range between 1.70 and 2.39 with an average of evens/1.99. The tip Win Rate is 58% overall. And the all-time ROI is 10.5%
Return On Investment
The all-time ROI over the 11 months of the OrangeBall service has been a healthy 10.5%.
Considering how that ROI has changed over different periods shows there was a dip in profits in August and September but October recovered that to restore the latest quarter ROI to close on 10% again.
Every 3 month period over the 11 months has delivered solid profits. And every 2-month period has been profitable. The ROI in every 3-month period has never been below 4.8%. The best 3-month ROI was 16.7% in Jan’20 to Mar’20.
|All-time ROI||12 mth ROI||6-month ROI||3-month ROI|
Return on Capital
The recommended initial Betting Bank for OrangeBall is calculated at 220 points. This is less than half of OrangeBall’s own recommendation of 500 points but perhaps he is being very conservative.
Following this tipster, with that recommended Betting Bank, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is over 600%.
In other words, your original bank of 220 units would have grown to over 1,100 units.
In real money terms starting in month one with £220 and £1/point bets (£10 stake per bet) and adjusting your stakes for the next calendar month based on 4% (10/220=4%) of your existing bank then your £220 would have become a staggering £7,200 – a growth of over 30 times your original bank over the full 11 months.
But, those are the theoretical figures. And to achieve it your stakes would have started at £9 per bet in Dec’19 but risen to £132 per bet in Oct’20. To attain and also sustain that level of staking it would need a creative approach to placing your bets on bookmakers, exchanges, or bet brokers.
Theoretical or not the opportunities for profit here look outstanding.
There have been 9 profitable months out for the 11 months of service.
An average losing month lost -36 points. An average profitable month made +135 points profit.
That’s a very positive ratio.
Every 2-month period delivered a profit.
In the first 6 months, the average number of tips per month was 56 – that was 1 or 2 tips per day. Since then, however, that number has trebled to around 170 tips per month. That translates to an average of around 5 or 6 tips per day on average.
Interestingly since that happened the Win Rate which had previously fluctuated quite a lot has become very stable around 57%.
This suggests to me a refinement or some kind of modification in tipping approach and is definitely an improvement.
Value for Money
OrangeBall is good value for money.
if you are shopping for ROI then at OrangeBall each 1% of ROI costs about £1.90 based on his overall ROI or £1.25 if you base it on his last 6-month performance.
Most, 80%, of OrangeBall tips are advised at 10 points.
If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £10 per bet at the beginning and you should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.
The betting bank size for OrangeBall would be 250 points.
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
From a risk-management aspect, your Betting Bank should have enough in it to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting. (This is where the 2.5 comes from in the formula below)
The formula I use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:
Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
OrangeBall’s win rate – how often tips win – is 58% based on his total of 1,200 tips so far. That makes the current ELLR figure 9 – you should have expected to have (at least) 9 losing bets in a row during those 1,200 bets.
Looking forward to the next 1,200 tips the ELLR for this Win rate of 58% could tick up to 10. In other words, if you were to start following these tips now, you should anticipate having a losing run of 10 losing bets (or possibly more – remember real-life is different from statistics).
The fixed 10 point bet stakes, therefore, suggest a start-up Betting Bank, if you are starting right now, in the region of 250 points (2.5*10*10) – assuming average risk.
The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are.
With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?
Based on the calculated Coefficient of Variance, OrangeBall’s performance is reasonably stable.
The figures suggest there’s an 80% chance you’ll have a profitable month when you join. But if you don’t it’s probable the profits of the next month will wipe those losses out.
Skill versus Chance
The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.
The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% indicating very strong evidence against luck or chance.
OrangeBall’s p-value is currently 0.04%, which confirms there is strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The bet Win Rate of 58% indicates an ELLR of around 9 for the 1,200 tips published so far. This rises to maybe 10 over the next 1,200 tips/bets. In other words, you should expect and plan for 10 (or more) losing bets in a row.
All OrangeBall’s tips are advised at 10 points (or units). This means a losing streak of 10 bets could equate to losing 100 points or units or £100 at £1/point.
If you started with a Betting Bank of 220 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with at least 20 units to start over (220 minus 2 x 100).
But provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be substantially less.
Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility). The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is.
Typically, higher reward typically comes with higher risk.
OrangeBall’s current Risk/Reward figure is an acceptable 1.49 and is on the better side of the 2.5 average for all tipsters we monitor.
Most tips come a day or two in advance. But you will also receive a number of picks 3 -12 hours before the event. Either way, there will be no big rush to get your bets on in time.
You’ll need to place somewhere in the region of 6 bets each day. Some people might consider this quite a lot. I think it’s about average. Looking at the published times of tips it looks like you’ll be dipping in and out doing single bets during the day as the tips arrive.
So, not too much time actually placing bets but perhaps maybe inconvenient having to do it 5 or 6 times a day.
The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Bet365, Pinnacle, 10bet, Unibet, and Betfair.
It’s encouraging to see that OrangeBall has used Pinnacle, a sharp bookmaker, for 16% of his tips. And he’s making a 12.3% ROI on them.
Pinnacle is the world’s sharpest bookmaker. Their odds are the most accurate in the industry and they operate at a profit margin of only 1% – 2%. The fact that OrangeBall tips make an ROI of over 12% betting at Pinnacle is remarkable.
It would appear that OrangeBall has knowledge or insight better than Pinnacle.
Impact Of Long Losing Runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 5 – 6 per day, and the ELLR is around 10 it would only take a couple of days before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.
If/when you hit it you know to adjust your £/point stakes significantly downwards.
However, generally, you might consider reviewing your £-per-point staking figure based on your Betting Bank on a weekly rather than a monthly basis.
OrangeBall is a service worth following.
Right now you’re paying a low £19 per month for an ROI of 8% since that change to the volume of monthly tips started in Jun’20.
It’s a low-risk medium-return service with an affordable betting bank and short losing runs.
The service ticks all the Key Performance Indicators and his recent up-tick in ROI performance make OrangeBall a very investable proposition.
Find out more about Around the Orange Ball here