SPECIAL NOTE:
This analysis report is somewhat unusual.
Close examination of AG Tips data reveals that AG Tips’ ROI is substantially better than the headline figure of 24% suggests.
A section THE HIDDEN INFORMATION at the beginning of this report explains why this is.
AG Tips is a professional punter specialising in horse racing and particularly handicap races in the UK and Ireland. Tips are almost exclusively in the each-way market.
He has developed his own method of pricing up horse racing and compares his prices against the industry to find horses that appear overpriced.
PROs
- Excellent ROI
- Short losing runs
- Low betting bank required
- Low-risk
- Value-for-money
CONs
- Nothing significant
Overview of service
Summary: AG Tips publishes each-way horse racing tips.
On average there are around 2 tips per day advised at a 10 points bet and published well in advance of the event.
Odds typically range between 9.00 and 12.00 with an average around 10.00 (9/1). The tip Win Rate is 30% overall. And the all-time ROI (excluding the Dec’19-Feb’20 months) is 39%
THE HIDDEN INFORMATION
(click for larger image)
The Historical Monthly Breakdown of AG Tips shows something unusual in the 3 months from Dec’19 to Feb’20.
The average odds during this period are radically different from the odds in all other months.
You might easily miss this.
But having found it we can reveal evidence for much better performance.
An in-depth analysis of the individual tips shows what looks to be a test by AG Tips of how doing doubles might work.
There had been 6 doubles tipped in the run-up months between Sep’19 and Nov’19 with some success. And this seems to have been the springboard to testing 51 more doubles during the next three months.
Unfortunately, that initial success did not follow through and doubles tips have lost a total of -390 points, an ROI of -58%.
There have been zero doubles tipped since then. And as you can see normal service appears to have been resumed as far as average odds is concerned.
Clearly, these three months are untypical of the AG Tips service and consequently, I am discounting them from this analysis and report.
Additionally, I am excluding as untypical the first month of tipping when there was an 85% ROI. That was produced from only 7 tips whereas a typical month has had 10 times that. (Including this first month would actually make AG Tips stats better)
All calculations and statistics will be based on the remaining 11 completed months (July’19 – Nov’19 plus March – Oct’20)
PROFIT
Return On Investment
The all-time ROI of the AG Tips service over the 11 months under analysis has been an outstanding 39%.
The 6-months ROI took a hit due to a losing month of July but the last 3 months (Aug-Oct) have shown a recovery.
| All-time ROI | 12 mth ROI | 6-month ROI | 3-month ROI |
| 39% | 39% | 29% | 35% |
Return on Capital
The recommended Betting Bank for AG Tips is calculated at 930 points. This is based on the 30% Win Rate and factors in the full stake of these each-way tips.
Following this tipster, with that recommended Betting Bank, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is a healthy 700% plus.
In other words, your original bank of 930 units would have grown to 6,061 units.
Betting Bank Growth in Money Terms
Looking separately at the two periods of 5-months before the doubles testing and the 6-months after the doubles testing here’s how a £1000 betting bank would have grown.
The figures are based on total bet stakes for the month equal to 2% of the available betting bank at the start of each month. This is equivalent to starting bets of £10 each-way (a total £20 stake)
Before the doubles test (5 months)
There were zero losing months – all 5 months were profitable. A £1000 bank would have grown to £35,500. Bets would have increased from £10 doubles (£20 stakes) on day one to £275 doubles (£550 stakes) during Mar’20.
After the doubles test (6 months)
There was one losing month in Jul’20. A £1000 bank would have grown to £14,400. Bets would have increased from £10 doubles (£20 stakes) during Jun’20 to £72 doubles (£144 stakes) during Oct’20.
There are theoretical figures but theoretical or not the opportunity for profit here looks outstanding.
Even a £100 bank would have grown to £1,440 in the last 6 months. That would have started with £1 doubles and ended doing £7 doubles.
Consistency
There have been 10 profitable months out for the 11 months included in this analysis.
The losing month in Jul’20 lost -398 points. An average profitable month made +646 points profit.
That’s a very positive ratio.
COST
Value for Money
When you sign-up to a tipster you hoping to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster and you’re paying a subscription fee for that.
Each percentage of ROI therefore has a £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 means each 1% of ROI costs £2)
This is a useful way to compare tipsters when shopping around for value-for-money – how much each 1% of ROI is costing you.
AG Tips’s ROI is shown as 24% and the subscription cost is £39 per month. Each 1% of ROI costs therefore about £1.60 (£39 divided by 24) which is good value compared against the £2.20 average.
However, if you exclude the 3 months of doubles testing AG Tips becomes excellent value for money at £1 per 1% of ROI.
Staking
In the last 6 months with very few exceptions, AG Tips tips have been advised at 10 points each-way – a 20 point stake.
If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £20 per bet at the beginning and you should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.
Betting Bank
The betting bank size for AG Tips would be around 1000 points.
And as mentioned above those 1000 points could equate to £100 (10p per point) and you would still have made substantial profits.
This 1000 points is based on having enough to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting.
The formula I use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
AG Tips has published roughly 800 tips to date – excluding the losing doubles.
There has been an average of 80 tips per month over the last 6 months. So we could expect a further 1000 tips over the next 12 months.
The ELLR for 2000 tips at 30% Win Rate is 22. You should therefore anticipate having a run of 22 losing bets in a row sometime during the next 12 months.
With 20 point bet stakes (10 points each-way) the start-up Betting Bank Size is somewhere in the region of 900 – 1,100 points (2.5*22*20) – assuming average risk.
RISK
Volatility
The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.
With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?
Based on the calculated Coefficient of Variance, AG Tips’s performance (excluding the doubles test months) is reasonably stable.
The figures suggest there’s a 90% chance you’ll have a profitable month when you join. But if you don’t it’s probable the profits of the next month will recover those losses.
Skill versus Chance
The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.
The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% indicating very strong evidence against luck or chance.
AG Tips’s p-value is currently 0.14%, which confirms there is strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The bet Win Rate of 30% indicates an ELLR of 19 or 20 based on the 800 (no doubles) tips published so far. This rises to maybe 22 over the next 1000 to 1,200 tips/bets. In other words, you should expect and plan for 22 (or more) losing bets in a row.
AG Tips’s tips now seem to be consistently advised at 10 points each-way (20 point stakes). This means a losing streak of 22 bets could equate to losing 440 points or units or £440 at £1/point.
If you started with a Betting Bank of 1000 units and you hit a worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with about 120 units to start over (1000 minus 2 x 440).
In reality though provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be substantially less.
Risk/Reward
The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility).
AG Tips’s current Risk/Reward figure is very good. The current figure of 0.73 indicates there is more reward on offer here than there is risk.
EFFORT
Time Commitment
There have been between 2 and 3 tips per day on average and these come 6 hours or more in advance of the event.
You shouldn’t be relaxed about placing your bets though.
From an analysis of the winning tips it looks like prices can drop dramatically between tip-time and race-time.
So getting bets on quickly to get the best odds is a must.
Bookmakers Used
The top bookmakers used for these tips have all been “soft” bookmakers – Betfair, William Hill, Bet365 etc.
“Soft” bookmakers will restrict you or close your account if you win too much.
Building a bank of 10 or more bookmakers and rotating your use of them may help fend off restrictions and closures.
Using betting exchanges also may be the way to go with AG Tips.
Impact Of Long Losing Runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 2 – 3 per day, and the ELLR is moving towards 22 in the next 12 months it would take a couple of weeks before you know if you’ve hit that longest losing run.
You might consider keeping a tighter control on your stake levels and review your £-per-point staking figure on a weekly rather than a monthly basis.
CONCLUSION
This technical analysis has excluded three months where AG Tips appears to have been testing out doubles tips. This test was unsuccessful and it looks like he has now reverted to his original approach.
The performance of the other 11 months of tipping has been outstanding.
Based on this performance AG Tips is definitely a service worth following.
The recommendations would be:
- set aside a 1000 point betting bank
- be prepared for a run of 22 losing bets
- use 2% of bank per point staking
- adjust the £/point staking on a weekly basis
- use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate through them
- test profitability using Betfair
- place bets early to get best odds
Analysis of AG Tips’ stats suggest this is a low-risk high-return service – the ideal combination – and makes AG Tips a very investable proposition.
Find out more about AG Tips here