Long losing streaks can shake your confidence, tempt you to chase losses, or push you into changing systems that don’t need changing. With the right preparation, you can weather the storm.
Estimated Longest Losing Run Ready Reckoner
Example 1: During the next 100 bets from a 50% WR tipster the longest losing run is estimated to be = 7.
Example 2: Over the next 1,500 bets from a 30% WR tipster the ELLR = 21.
Longest Losing Runs
Knowing your likely longest losing run lets you:
- prepare mentally before it happens
- calculate the betting bank you’ll need to survive it
- work out the right stake size
Without this knowledge you’re guessing at stakes and hoping your bank holds out — a dangerous position to be in.
Estimated Longest Losing Run Formula
The Longest Losing Run or Streak is based on the number of bets and the bet Win Rate.
The formula is:
ELLR = log(n) / -log(1 – WR)
(where n = total bets, WR = win rate)
This gives an estimate, not a guarantee. Sometimes the run will be longer, often shorter. You should always build in a small margin — if the formula gives 20, plan for maybe 22.
What is a Win Rate (WR)?
Win Rate = Number of Winning Bets ÷ Total Bets
- 33 wins from 100 bets = 33% WR
- 20 wins from 200 bets = 10% WR
Win Rate is Different To Strike Rate
For horse racing tipsters who place each‑way bets, Win Rate and Strike Rate can differ significantly. A win counts toward Strike Rate; a place counts toward Win Rate. A tipster might show a 30% Win Rate but only a 10% Strike Rate (i.e. 10% of runners actually come first). Use Win Rate for ELLR calculations in these cases — the difference is substantial.
Calculating Stake Size
Say your bank is £1,000, your tipster has a 25% WR, and you reckon you’ll be following the tipster for 1,000 bets (ELLR = 25).
Stake Size = Bank ÷ 3 ÷ ELLR
£1,000 ÷ 3 = £333 ÷ 25 ≈ £13 per bet
Even in a worst‑case scenario — 26 losers, one winner, then 25 more losers — you’d still have over a third of your bank left:
| Starting bank | £1,000 |
| 26 losses @ £13 | -£338 |
| 1 winner @ 4.0 | +£39 |
| 25 losses @ £13 | -£325 |
| Bank remaining | £376 |
Calculating Betting Bank Size
If you’ve decided on your stake size and want to know how large a bank you need:
Bank = Stake × ELLR × 3 (low risk) or × 2.5 (medium risk)
Example: Following 500 bets from a 40% WR tipster the ELLR = 13. At £10 stakes the Betting Bank should be £10 × 13 × 3 = £390 recommended bank.
Estimated Betting Bank Ready Reckoner
Example 1: If the tipster’s ELLR = 12 and the average stake = 2 points or units then the betting bank should be around 60 points or units.
Example 2: If the tipster’s ELLR = 35 and the average stake = 10 points or units then the betting bank should be around 880 points or units.
Staking on a Points System
Many tipsters use a points scale to signal confidence. An 8‑point tip at £10/point = £80 bet; at £2/point = £16. Your bank size determines your point value.
Summary
Win Rate is the key to everything. Know your WR, estimate your ELLR, set your stakes and bank accordingly — and you’ll survive the bad runs without making costly, panicked decisions.
Notes about Strike Rate and Win Rate
The difference between Strike Rate and WIn Rate is very important.
Tipster site Tipstrr, for example, displays a headline Win Rate figure for each tipster but they also show a Strike Rate figure in the tipster’s comprehensive Stats page.
These numbers can be different and the difference comes about particularly for racing tipsters and because of each‑way tips/bets.
- if the horse wins the race that counts towards the Strike Rate (the horse won)
- if the horse places (comes 1st, 2nd or 3rd) it counts towards the Win Rate (the tip won)
A horse racing tipster who tips a lot of each‑ways might have a Win Rate of 30% but a Strike Rate of only 10%.
The ELLR based on Win Rate will be radically smaller than the ELLR based on Strike Rate. It makes sense to use the Win Rate figure to calculate the ELLR.