Final Thoughts First
My personal view is that “live” tipster trials on tipster review sites are a waste of time. They’re always what happened for a few short months in the past.
At the end of reading the review you’re always going to be left with the question – will I make a profit with this tipster?
You need some way to estimate the future performance of a tipster from their historical facts.
Of course everyone says “past results is no indication of future results” – but what else have we got? Crystal balls?
Estimating the risk and reward from a tipster’s past results using mathematics and sound statistics is what thebetinvestor is all about.
If you’ve been looking to find the best sports tipsters you’ll probably come across sites which run what they call “live trials” of tipsters as part of their review of the tipster.
But how useful are they really? Is it any better than the tipster performance history right in front of you?
Anatomy of a Live Trial
In a typical tipster review site a “Live trial” normally starts with a “New Review” post. This gives you some background on the tipster their general stats like Profit and ROI and explains why it is of interest to the review site.
The “New Review” is then followed up with periodic updates usually monthly on profits and losses for the month and how things are going overall – are we ahead or are we losing?
At the end of the trial period, typically there’s a “Final Review”. This will be an update showing the final figures – profit/loss, Strike Rate, ROI. And there’ll be a star rating or a thumbs up/thumbs down depending if money was made or not.
Are 7-Day Trials Bad?
Tipster review trials on some review sites last as little as 7 days. This is a typical free trial period that many tipsters offer. So if the reviewer gets the tips for free for a week there’s no subscription costs for the review site.
But what’s the point of a 7-day trial? What if its a one-tip-a-day tipster. You’re going to assess a tipster based on 7 tips?! No way.
Success or failure of a tipster can’t be gauged in just one week or even one month. Following a tipster is a long-term thing its the long-game that is important.
If the trial caught the tipster during a purple patch then results will be great and the review will be glowing. A bad week and the review will be pretty damning. Both of these reviews are misleading at best.
Are 6-Month Trials Good?
Some sites, however, run “live” trials of tipsters lasting 6 months and longer in some cases. That’s a good thing – isn’t it. Well, not everything is as it might seem.
Smoke and Mirrors?
The cynic in me can see how its possible to simply use historical tips records to create the impression of a “live” trial.
If you run a review site its possible to ask tipsters for free access to their tips in return for a running a trial and posting a hopefully positive review. But they’ll probably not give you 6 months for free. You might get one free month at best perhaps. So to do a 6-month review trial does the review site pay for a 6 months subscription to the tipster? Maybe. Or could this just be a little bit of smoke and mirrors?
Couldn’t you just use the published stats for a random 6-months from the tipsters past – or even the most recent 6-months – and write the review “trial” as if it had happened some time ago? You’re always going to be posting the results of the trial some time after they happen anyway.
Any self-respecting tipster site is going to show the history of tips made by its tipsters – Googlesheets is a typical method to do this. So the data is there to see , and to use – and potentially abuse.
N.B. You should avoid any tipster site that does not show a full history of a tipster’s tips. Even if they do you should always question whether the records could be “doctored” or manipulated in some way.
You can see here some of the ways tipsters try to scam you.
Kosher?
Even if everything about the “live ” trial was above board what has it really achieved?
If the trial happened a year ago thats got no relevance now. You can see the profit and loss figures for yourself anyway in the tipster’s historical results stats.
If you’re reading the review half-way through the trial it can be interesting reading but would you act on a trial that was incomplete? Or would you be waiting to see the final result? Perhaps human nature would make you want to wait until it is finished.
If the “Final Review” of a tipster trial is hot off the press – just finished in the last few days – what can you actually learn from it?
It could have been a good 6 months, a bad 6 months or just a period of ups and downs with no real change and no real profit made.
One thing you do know is that the next 6-months are going to be different from the last 6-months. But you don’t know by how much. No one does.
The trial’s been done but you’ll still have the same questions now that you had 6 months ago – should I follow this tipster or not? Will I make money with them?
Real Benefits of genuine Tipster Trials
Perhaps the real benefit of a genuine live trial comes from getting an insight into how easy it was to follow the tipster.
- Do the tips come in good time to place the bet?
- What time of the day do they come at?
- Can you get close to the same odds as the tipster?
- What bookmakers can you use?
If you can’t get the bet on you’ll not make any money. If you can’t get the tip’s advised odds you’re never going to make the same profit you thought you’d get when you signed up to the tipster.
You and your phone might be permanently connected to the internet for instant notifications from apps and emails.
Perhaps you can bet at a moments notice anytime anywhere. But do you want that? Is that going to work? Constantly on the edge waiting for tips to come in?
Or maybe you have to get all your bets placed before going off to work? That would work. But the tipster can take his sweet time publishing them when it suits him during the day.
All of these things will be personal to you and your lifestyle. These are important factors for choosing a tipster that suits you.
Final Thoughts
Typical tipster review sites that run “live” tipster trials have no value. Its always about what happened in the past.
You’re always going to be left with the question – will I make a profit with this tipster?
They say “past results are no indication of future performance” – but what else have we got? Crystal balls?
thebetinvestor is trying to change that.
