Investment Report: Underdog Racing Tips
(Updated September 2025: Based on 69 months (over 5 years!) of data from Oct 2019 to Aug 2025 incl.)
Underdog Racing Tips specialises in high-value each-way horse racing selections across UK and Irish markets, with an energetic focus on longshots at generous odds. The strategy targets “overlooked” runners that offer superior risk-reward, maintaining moderate staking discipline and avoiding high turnover “spray and pray” approaches. Over 69 months, the service has demonstrated robust longevity and adaptability.
Key Takeaways
Underdog Racing Tips is proven for bettors aiming for outsized returns, accepting the volatility of chasing long odds with sound bankroll control.
- Career ROI of 37% with outstanding profitability spanning nearly six years.
- Average monthly profit exceeds £1,100, with 75% of months finishing in profit.
- Strike rate and Sharpe ratio confirm statistical outperformance; P-value is 0.00000, indicating results are far from random.
- Suited to risk-tolerant investors able to ride out losing streaks.
Profit Trend Analysis
Visualizing profit changes over time with color-coded data points
Chart Explanation: This chart shows profit trends over time. Data points are colored red when the profit decreases from the previous month and blue when it increases or stays the same.
Key Performance Statistics
- Tips Provided: 9,806 total; average 157/month.
- Tip Win Rate: 22% overall.
- Average Odds: 17.03.
- Average Stake: 20 points.
- Overall ROI: 37%.
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.64 (last three months).
- P-Value: 0.00000.
- Profitable Months: 52 of 69 (75%).
- Recommended Starting Bank: 1,100.
Key Signs of a System Change
Looking at the graph the data strongly suggests that a significant change was made to the tipster’s method around March 2021. After this there is notable improvement – more consistent profitability, higher win rates, and reduced performance volatility.
Table: Before and After March 2021
| Time Period | Typical Win Rate | Typical ROI | Typical Profit | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Mar 2021 | 2%-8% | Often negative | Small/negative | High |
| Mar 2021 & after | 5%-12% | Mostly positive | Large & consistent | Lower |
This is not likely due to random streaks or chance alone; statistical discontinuities of this magnitude indicate deliberate alteration or upgrade of betting approach.
March 2021 shows an abnormal spike: 12% win rate, 85 tips, and a massive profit of 3017.13 units (ROI 177.5%), compared to much lower profits and win rates in the prior months.
Subsequent months settle into higher win rates: Prior to March 2021, win rates commonly ranged from 2%-8% and profits/ROI were mostly modest or negative; after March 2021, win rates regularly hit 5%-9%, and profit stability increases.
Sustained improvement: From April 2021 onwards, there is a notable trend of increased tip frequency, improved ROI, and more frequent profitable months, relative to the highly volatile and often negative performance pre-March 2021.
Statistical Features to Note
Abrupt performance improvement: The leap in March 2021 is far outside the bounds of previous monthly performance, indicating more than random variance or luck.
Profit distribution shift: Pre-2021, negative ROI and large losses were common. After the change, even the occasional losing month is smaller in scale, with more consistent positive returns.
Tip volume steady or increased: The number of tips per month goes up, win rates become higher and less volatile, and average odds remain similar – suggesting strategic change, not mere luck.
March 2021 as breakpoint: The characteristics before and after March 2021 (win rate, profit variability, ROI, consistency) contrast sharply; this is precisely what analysts look for when inferring method changes.
Recent Form & ROI Breakdown
| Period | ROI | Profit (£) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 24% | 675 |
| 6 months | 14% | 3,286 |
| 12 months | 31% | 11,360 |
| 2 years | 34% | 32,274 |
| 3 years | 36% | 48,325 |
| 4 years | 38% | 62,296 |
The past year saw both solid gains and short-term variability, typical for high-odds strategies. The ROI rebounded to 31% over the past 12 months after a modest six-month lull, highlighting resilience.
Profit Probability Table
| Period | Profit Probability | Avg Profit (£) | Avg Loss (£) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 87% | 1,401 | -406 |
| 2 months | 95% | 2,454 | -361 |
| 3 months | 98% | 3,520 | -598 |
Investors face an 87–98% chance of finishing any 1–3 month period in profit, with mean gains substantially outweighing typical monthly drawdowns.
ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run)
| Period | Tips | ELLR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 157 | 21 |
| 2 months | 314 | 24 |
| 3 months | 471 | 25 |
The model suggests losing streaks of 3+ weeks are statistically normal. Maintaining discipline—and a starting bank of at least 550—is vital to survive these stretches.
Monthly Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
| Month | Profit/Loss (£) |
|---|---|
| Aug 2025 | 574.50 |
| Jul 2025 | 550.40 |
| Jun 2025 | 1,352.65 |
| May 2025 | -1,228.40 |
| Apr 2025 | 975.30 |
| Mar 2025 | 670.10 |
Volatility is expected; single negative months like May are routinely offset by outsized wins that follow. Investors using bankroll management recover promptly if disciplined.
Recommendation
Underdog Racing Tips is best for patient, data-driven bettors who prefer the possibility of large monthly profits versus the comfort of slow, steady gains. Anyone with experience in sports investing, prepared for variance, will appreciate this service’s transparent, statistically-validated edge and real staying power.
(This report based on 69 months (over 5 years!) of data from Oct 2019 to Aug 2025 incl.)
