Report Date: October 11, 2025
Data Period Covered: August 2020 – September 2025
Last Updated: October 11, 2025
NOTE: All probability and likelihood figures presented in this report are based on historical outcomes and past performance. They reflect tendencies observed over time rather than certainties or future guarantees
Introduction
On The Money Tips has been delivering consistent horse racing selections since 2020, focusing exclusively on the race-winner market. Bets are placed at around 10-point stakes and average odds of 10, emphasising quality over quantity with roughly three tips per day. The strategy thrives on calculated value and disciplined staking rather than chasing longshots, producing steady returns and maintaining investor confidence across multiple years of performance.
Key Takeaways
- Around 3 tips per day, typical stake of 10 points
- 15% win rate over the last 3 months
- Overall ROI of 22%
- 43 profitable months out of 62 total
- 69% chance of monthly profit, average profit £377 vs. average loss -£171
- 83% chance of profit over a 3-month period, historically averaging £780
- P-Value of 0.00000 indicates excellent statistical confidence and long-term consistency
Key Performance Statistics
These figures reflect a disciplined, value-focused approach performing solidly over time. The ROI combined with a strong Sharpe Ratio of 1.90 signals a reliable, risk-adjusted performance well suited to sustainable bankroll growth.
- ROI: 22%
- Tip Win Rate: 15%
- Profitable Months: 69%
- Sharpe Ratio: 1.90
- Monthly SR: 0.55
Recent Form & ROI Breakdown
Performance has remained positive year to year, with recent momentum reflecting both resilience and tactical consistency in selections.
- 3-month ROI: 27% — Profit £1,120
- 6-month ROI: 16% — Profit £1,077
- 12-month ROI: 13% — Profit £1,628
- 2-year ROI: 20% — Profit £5,042
- 3-year ROI: 20% — Profit £6,928
- 4-year ROI: 25% — Profit £11,142
ON THE MONEY TIPS BANK GROWTH
Bank growth changes over time with color-coded data points
Profit Probability
The service demonstrates good medium-term consistency, and longer periods almost guarantee profit given its track record. Short-term returns are slightly variable, common in win-only betting strategies.
- 1-month: 69% profit probability, avg. profit £377, avg. loss -£171, profit factor 2.20
- 2-month: 77% profit probability, avg. profit £601, avg. loss -£247, profit factor 2.43
- 3-month: 83% profit probability, avg. profit £780, avg. loss -£178, profit factor 4.38
ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run)
On The Money Tips experiences natural losing streaks within the expected range for a 15% win rate. However, these runs are well within manageable limits for users maintaining proper bank discipline.
- 1-month losing run: 29 tips — 290 points (~£2,900 loss at £10/point)
- 3-month losing run: 36 tips — 360 points (~£3,600 loss at £10/point)
Given the recommended bank of 750 points, even maximum expected runs represent manageable drawdowns for disciplined investors.
Recommendation
This tipster suits patient, methodical investors comfortable with low-frequency, win-only betting.
On The Money Tips has shown statistically significant, steady profit over five years and remains strongly suited to medium-risk bankroll strategies.
A starting bank of 750 points provides optimal protection, with approximately 70% probability of a profitable first month, increasing to over 80% for quarterly performance.
It’s a sound pick for those preferring consistent, sustainable profit growth rather than explosive risk-driven returns.
Staking Plan
An effective staking model for this service follows a fixed 10-point per bet approach or a 1.3% stake of total bankroll. The recommended 750-point bank comfortably withstands losing streaks of up to 36 consecutive tips, preserving capital during drawdowns. Using a flat staking plan maintains stability, but cautious compounding — increasing stakes by 5% after every 10% bank growth — can lift earnings without exposing investors to undue risk. Limiting total exposure to under 2% of the bankroll per day ensures steady, controllable growth aligned with the service’s long-term consistency.
