Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- Over 2500 tips
- Good consistency
- Low-risk / Medium-reward
- Good Strike Rate
- Good ROI
- Excellent skill indicator
- Low subscription cost
- Potential long losing runs
Summary: A multi sport tipster who started doing this professionally in the last 5 years. The majority of the tips are added in the morning , usually between 9 and 11 am UK time. Stake plan is very simple – level stakes of 5 points.
- multi-sport tipster
- 60 tips per week
- most tips published 8am – 12pm
- 90% of tips on horse racing, football and tennis
- small number of accumulator bets
Sports & Markets
SVB Tips covers many different sports but the three main ones are horse racing, football and tennis. These three sports account for over 90% of the tips published. Other sports include basketball, cricket, darts and rugby.
Race winner or match winner, for tennis, accounts for over 55% of the tips while one in three tips (33%) are betting on the Home-Draw-Away (1X2) market.
Tipping & Betting Profile
SVB Tips publishes an average of around 60 tips per week so you can expect about 8 per day.
The average stake is just under 6 points per tip so, at 8 bets per day that would be an betting outlay of around 48 points per day.
Following these tips at £1 per point stakes would mean placing an average of £48 of bets per day. Based on the last 12 months’ performance that would produce an £105 profit in an average month.
At £2 per point stakes, it would mean placing an about £100 of bets per day and produce £210 profit for the average month.
Although tips have been published right across the 24 hours of the day the majority of the tips are added in the morning , usually between 9 and 11 am UK.
There are small numbers of tips issued late-afternoon/early-evening.
This early-morning/late-afternoon pattern may not be an ideal set-and-forget service but for UK/European followers at least, this should be very manageable.
SVB Tips has been in operation since January 2019. July was the only losing month and that was a relatively small -28 points. Apart from that, the other 9 winning months produced an average of 250 profits per month.
I class this as strong performance over the medium term.
Another couple of months will take us into the full year with this tipster at which point I’ll be able to assess their long-term performance.
Return On Investment (ROI)
At the time of this analysis, SVB Tips’s overall ROI over 10 months of operation is a very good 12.9% following the advised stakes. However, this ROI figure increases to almost 15% if you ignored the advised stakes and simply used level stakes e.g. £2 bet for every tip. Simpler level-stake staking and an extra 2% of ROI may be worth considering.
Over the 10 months from January 2019, ROI has ranged from a high of 30.1% in January to a low of -2.2% in July 2019.
Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.
SVB Tips’s figures show a dip in ROI during mid-year but a strong recovery later on in the year. The all-time figure shows an average of 12.9% ROI. The previous 6-months was 10.8% ROI. And the most recent 3-months returned an average of 25.8% ROI.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
This is where SVB Tips service shows a bit of a weakness. SVB Tips’s overall ELLR currently stands at 19. This a statistically calculated number based on the Strike Rate (Win Rate) and means you could expect to suffer a run of around 19 losing bets in a row. It has been somewhere between 17 and 19 over the past 6 months.
SVB Tips is a multi-sport tipster so its interesting to look at the different Strike/Win Rates of the different sports covered.
Horse racing accounts for roughly 44% of all tips. The Strike Rate, or Win Rate, here is 25% which gives an ELLR for racing of 25 i.e. 25 losing racing tips in a row. Horse racing tips produces 20% ROI.
Football accounts for 35% of all tips and has a Win Rate of 38%. The 38% Win Rate gives an ELLR for football tips of 15 losing tips in a row. Football produces 12% ROI.
Tennis accounts for 12% of all tips and has a Win Rate of 46%, the highest of the three sports. This 46% Win Rate gives an ELLR for tennis tips of 10 losing tips in a row. , Tennis has the highest WIn Rate but produces the lowest ROI at 8%.
This mix of different sports and their different Win Rates, however, makes using the single ELLR figure a little problematic.
Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 8 tips per day, this could mean you could maybe have 3 or 4 losing days in a row.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.
SVB Tips’s p-value of 0.009% indicates there is very strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but more likely due to their expertise.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 19 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 38 losing bets (2 x 19) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
SVB Tips’s average advised stakes are slightly just under 6 points although there has been a stated change to 5 points per bet level-stakes over the recent months.
This would suggest a betting bank of around 285 points (3 times 19 times 5) to cover the worst-case scenario.
This service is delivering substantial profits on £1 per point stakes so it should be able to operate safely on a minimum £285 betting bank.
The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.
SVB Tips Risk/Reward figure is 0.82 and can be classed as excellent.
Value for Money (VfM)
Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in money terms. Its useful in comparing tipsters.
SVB Tips’s monthly subscription currently costs a mere £19. His average ROI is 12.9%. Therefore you are paying £1.47 for each percentage point of ROI (£19 divided by 12.9). This is relatively inexpensive compared to the average of £2 – £3.
Overall, a solid performer and a good addition to any tipster portfolio.
But here’s some further food for thought which is relevant for all multisport tipsters.
Some may say that a multi-sport tipster is actually like having a ready-made tipster portfolio. Personally I don’t agree. They are after all just one tipster.
Looking at the sports covered by SVB Tips and the results being achieved does present something to ponder.
Consider for example that fact that there have been over 1100 horse racing tips in 10 months. That’s something like 28 tips a week on average or 4 tips per day. And on their own, these horse racing tips have been producing a very respectable 20% ROI. These figures alone could support a tipster service dedicated to just horse racing.
So why bother with the less lucrative football and tennis tips and the other less featured sports? Here’s maybe why you shouldn’t bother …
Following all of this tipster’s tips means placing an average of 60 bets a week. Each bet stake is 6 points on average which would make a total outlay of 360 points of bets per week. With a 12.9% ROI those 360 points staked would, on average, produce 46 points profit.
Consider now spreading those 360 points over the 28 horse racing tips for a week. Your stakes per bet would now be around 12.5 points. With horse racing producing 20% ROI those same 360 points staked over a week would, on average, produce 72 points profit. Much more than the 46 points profit following the tips for all the sports.
In summary, following only the horse racing tips means fewer bets and more profit. Better return on your investment. In my opinion, something worth serious consideration.
All that aside, the whole SVB Tips service is delivering a good Return-on-Investment and providing steady consistent profits from a low-risk and low-cost service. The performance profile makes it an ideal candidate for inclusion into a balanced tipster portfolio.
Find out more about SVB Tips.