These are the three key points in TheBankers journey from startup in June 2019 to becoming a worthwhile investment based on my research and analysis.
I hope it helps you in doing your own research to find good tipsters to follow.
I have two Initial Thresholds any tipster must meet to have sufficient data for assessment – at least 6 months of operation and at least 500 tips.
Jan’20: Inital Thresholds reached but not investing
- Analysis at this point shows 560 tips over 8 months and an overall ROI of 22% – thresholds exceeded.
- The probability of making a profit over 1 month has been 63% (3 losing months from 8) ; over any 2-month period 100%; and over any 3-month period 100%.
- The Performance Score is less than 1, which is marginal, but the Confidence Level in that value is very low.
| Thebanker | 1mo ROI | 12mo ROI | 2yr ROI | Performance Score | Confidence Level | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan’20 | 39.7% | 16.3% | – | 0.67 ★★★ Good | 0.38 ★ Very Low | Moderate SR, low confidence Uncertain |
On this basis I would not invest in Thebanker at this point.
Jul’20: One year on – Better figures but still not investing
- Now with 918 tips over 12 months (Covid affected racing) and a sustained 22% ROI.
- The profit probabilities have changed to: 1 month – 67% probability of making a profit; 2 months: 91%; and still 100% probability of profit over any 3 month period.
- The Performance Score is just over 1 which is generally considered good and indicates that an investment is producing a higher return for the level of risk it has taken on.
- However, there is only moderate Confidence in that Performance Score and so the tipster service is limited to an assessment of “Likely worthwhile“.
| Thebanker | 1mo ROI | 12mo ROI | 2yr ROI | Performance Score | Confidence Level | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul’20 | 4.2% | 22.7% | – | 1.06 ★★★★ Very Good | 0.53 ★★★ Moderate | Good SR, some confidence Likely worthwhile |
Things are improving but the Confidence Level in the Performance Score lets it down so I would still not invest in Thebanker at this point.
Aug’20: Better Performance Score, Confidence High and better ROI – now I’m investing
- We’ve reached 25 months of operation and had 1794 tips that produced an overall ROI of 29%.
- Profit probabilities now look like: 1month 68% ; 2 months 88% ; and 3 months 96%.
- The Performance Score has improved to 1.59 and there is Strong confidence in that figure.
| Thebanker | 1mo ROI | 12mo ROI | 2yr ROI | Performance Score | Confidence Level | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug’21 | 30.9% | 24.3% | 29.4% | 1.59 ★★★★ Very Good | 0.88 ★★★★ Good | Good SR, strong confidence Attractive investment Full report |
Thebanker is now “Attractive Investment” and worth including in a tipster portfolio.
THEBANKER Bank Growth Jun’19 to Aug’21
From Startup to Investment
THEBANKER Monthly P&L Jun’19 to Aug’21
The month-by-month profits and losses from Startup to Investment
PROBABILITY OF PROFIT at INVESTMENT AUG’21
How likely you are to make a profit over different time periods
