Personal Tipster Portfolio – 2025 – Year 6

2025

This is the monthly update on the performance of, and the changes to, my Personal Tipster Portfolio for 2025.
Starting on Jan 1st with a betting bank of £100 (see notes below).

Oct’25:
In Progress

Starting Bank: £2,000 Target Profit = £1,500

UPDATES :
4 Oct: THEBANKER profit hits 98% of target
THEBANKER: Reached £740 profit against a target of £750 which was tempting to stop betting TheBanker however UNDERDOG RACING TIPS had only reached £338 profit. The combined portfolio was 33% under its target of £1,500 so I will continue betting both tipsters.

6 Oct: stop betting THEBANKER continue with UNDERDOG RACING TIPS
THEBANKER: pulled out a series of winners to hit £1,645 profit and shatter its £750 target.

The phenomenal ROI of 274% will not be sustained.
At an average 2 tips a day and 25 days still to go in October thats 50 tips at 5 units = 250 points to bet. WIth 329 units already bagged its clear that October will be a profitable month even if all of those 50 tips lost (the probability of which is about 1 in 6,100)
Also, if all 50 of those tips did lose, the profit would drop to around 79 units making the ROI 25% for the month.
Based on this I anticipate quite a few losing tips over the rest of the month. Therefore, if I continued betting theBanker tips I would almost certainly lose some of the profit already made.
?QUESTION: I wonder if TheBanker when he sees this phenominal early profit will reduce the tips for the rest of the month to minimize his losses and “protect” his stats and maybe make the No.1 spot on Tipstrr’s Octobers’ Best Horse Racing Tipsters (he was No.8 on September’s Best Tipsters list)?

UNDERDOG RACING TIPS on the other hand is sitting at only £297 profit against its £750 target. Combined with TheBanker thats £433 above portfolio target.
The UNDERDOG monthly stats so far are looking solid  – numbers of tips are a little on the low side but Win Rate and ROI are both in line with typical averages – so I anticipate more profit to come from more tips. And the £433 above-target profit gives me a buffer to absorb some future Underdog losses.
Bottom line is: stop betting THEBANKER while still continue with UNDERDOG RACING TIPS.

13 Oct: reduce stakes on UNDERDOG RACING TIPS
Underdog continues a losing streak. The £433 buffer has just be used up – Underdog loss at 13Oct = -£466. I’m fairly confident of an improvement in the latter half of the month but I must reduce stakes now to limit damage to the betting bank just in case we’re headed to a losing month. Looking forward the probability of a losing month is 14% or 1 in 6 chance and the probability of a 2 month profit is 95% so I’m fairly relaxed about that.

I’m reduce stakes from £1/pt to £0.50/pt from tomorrow 14th and will recalculate stakes again on morning of Saturday 18th.

Sep’25:
Profit: £1,479  Bank: £4,516

Starting Bank: £3,037 Target Profit = £1,500

UPDATES :
20 Sep:
UNDERDOG RACING TIPS: After struggling in the first half of the month Underdog produced 3 big winners in quick succession (18th Iamimmaculate at Naas 33/1, 19th Best Night at Newton Abbot 20/1 and on 20th Midnight Lion at Ayr 33/1). That flipped a -£558 loss into a £1,564 profit which by itself exceeded the portfolio £1,500 profit target.
THEBANKER: Not a good story here either for the first 9 days of the month sitting at a losing low of -£450. But clawed that back to a profit of £655 by the 15th. £655 profit was 88% of Thebanker’s individual profit target and I was sorely tempted to take the profit and stop betting Thebanker. But, being honest i didn’t do that. I kept following teh tips and right now I’m looking at -£85 loss for Thebanker this month.

QUESTION:
At £1,479 profit versus the £1,500 target (98% of target) I could (maybe should) leave it for the month and just bank the £1,479.
BUT: Whats the probability of Thebanker turning things around in the next 10 days?
Thebanker’s average number of profitable months after hitting a losing month is 3.5 months – which means that, on average, after a losing month, there are about 3 to 4 profitable months before the next losing months happens.
Thebanker is currently on a streak of 4 profitable months. Turning the current September’s loss into a profit would make a streak of 5 consecutive profitable months. Probability of that is around 35% – a 1 in 3 chance – not a great.

DECISION: Bank the £1,479 and stop betting for the rest of the month. (see the blue column in the chart)
Interesting to see what happens.

30 Sep END-OF-MONTH UPDATE:
Poor decision to stop betting on 20th – but thats just how things go sometimes.
Underdog monthly profit £2,954.
Thebanker monthly profit £790.
Total portfolio profit £3,744
I could have made £2,265 extra profit for the month but didn’t.

For Oct:

Stakes for Sep were £20 per bet for Underdog and £50 per bet for Thebanker – which is high enough for me not matter what my bank is.
Mathematically those should now rise to £40 and £100 per bet but that might get flagged at bookmakers so I’m withdrawing £2,516 which leaves £2,000 in the bank and keeps the stakes same as before.
Total withdrawn now = £6,058
So no change to portfolio or staking for October.

Aug’25:
Profit: £1,261  Bank: £3,037

Starting Bank: £1,776 Target Profit = £900

UPDATES :
16 Aug:
TheBanker hit £587 profit exceeding its estimated profit of £375. Betting TheBanker tips stops.
UNDERDOG:
Estimated Underdog Profit = £525. Underdog profit needed to hit monthly target = £313.
If Underdog hits close/over £313 betting will stop for remained of month.

29 Aug:
Underdog finally hit target on 19 Aug with £674 profit.
Profit for the month was £587 from TheBanker + £674 from Underdog makimg a total of  £1261 for August – exceeding the £900 target set.

Betting stops for the month.

For Sep:

No reason to change anything but the stakes based on the new betting bank.

Jul’25:
Profit: £776  Bank: £1,776

New starting Bank: £1,000 Target Profit = £540

UPDATES :
6 Jul: TheBanker hit £382 profit exceeding its estimated profit of £225.
Portfolio profit = £534 = 99% of total monthly profit.
This could be an indicator to stop betting entirely for the rest of the month except that, statistically, from where we are there’s a 65% probability of reaching the Underdog target profit by end of month.
Decision: Stop betting TheBanker + continue betting Underdog

12 Jul: Underdog Racing Tips hit £394 profit which takes the portfolio monthly profit to £776 – well above the £540 target.
Decision: Stop betting Underdog Racing Tips for the rest of the month and bank the portfolio profit.

END Of MONTH: The combined portfolio prroduced £1,292 profit at end of month. So I missed out on £512 profit. I’m still convinced though that setting targets and stopping when they’re reached is a good overall approach.

FOR AUGUST 2025:
No changes to portfolio. Stakes modified based on £1,776 bank.
Underdog Racing Tips stake = £0.50/pt (£10/bet)
TheBanker stake=£5/pt (£25/bet)

Jun’25:
Profit: £1,800  Bank: £4,542

Target Profit = £1,320
Take Profit: £3,542 Leaving New Bank: £1,000

UPDATES :
10 Jun: TheBanker hit £650 profit exceeding its estimated profit of £600 – betting stops on TheBanker but continues with Underdog.
28Jun: Underdog hit £1,150 profit exceeding its estimated profit of £720 – betting stops on Underdog Racing Tips as well to protect the profit made.
On the 28th TheBanker had improved their profit to £1,076 – well above the £650 I settled for on 10th June – so I lost out on £420 profit – but hindsight is a wonderful thing – that’s the kind of data-based decisions you take.

With only 2 days left in June all betting is now stopped to protect the profit made.
Total profit for the month = £650 + £1,150 = £1,800 . This compares well to the £1,320 profit target.

PROFIT TAKING

Half-way through the year and we’ve seen £100 grow to just over £4,500 – that’s an X45 times multiplier!

Bet stakes for this month were £20 per bet for Underdog and £50 per bet for TheBanker – these are fairly high.

The next stake increments based on available bank would (mathematically) take us to £40/bet for Underdog and £100/bet for TheBanker. But I’m uncomfortable at these levels as bookmakers might start flagging the volume of bets and the high stakes.

Therefore the decision from this point is:

1. withdraw £3,542 from the bank leaving £1,000 as the new betting banK
2. return stakes to April levels of 50p/pt (£10 per bet) for Underdog and £3/pt (£15 per bet) for TheBanker

FOR JUL 2025:
No changes to portfolio. Stakes modified based on £1,000 bank.

May’25:
Profit: £1,671  Bank: £2,742

Target Profit = £660

UPDATES :
3 May: Profit target well and truly smashed after only 3 days! Before theBanker could get out of the starting blocks Underdog had pulled £1,681 out of the bag!
Time to take profits and relax for the rest of the month.

END OF MONTH UPDATE:
The portfolio performance graph shows the take-the-profits-and-run as a blue bar on 3rd May. After that Underdog went down the pan while theBanker went on to deliver an exceptional 65% ROI.

FOR JUN 2025:
No changes to portfolio. Stakes modified based on increased bank.

NOTES:
The target profit was split £360 Underdog + £300 theBanker.
Underdog exceeded his target profit on 3rd May with £1,681 profit.
TheBanker exceeded his target profit on 6th May with £890 profit.
If I had made my stop-betting decisions based on the individual target profits rather than the overall portfolio profit I would have banked £2,571 rather than £1,671 – £900 more.

Apr’25:
Profit: £486  Bank: £1,071

Target Profit = £420

UPDATES :
1Apr: Profit target achieved after only 1 day! £486 profit which well above the £420 target. I’m stopping betting now but will track the rest of the month with great interest.
I can gradually lose some of the extra profit over the month at the bookmakers to make me look more like a “punter”.

Mar’25:
Profit: £255  Bank: £585

UPDATES :
3Mar: Profit has reached £224 versus £260 target – 86% of target achieved.
7Mar: Profit reaches £239 = 92% of £260 target. SVB continues to underperform.
8Mar: Profit reaches £255 = 98% of target. I am satisfied with £255 profit and will now stop betting these tips but will continue to track performance to monitor if this decision is a good one or not.

20Mar: I’ve just become aware that UNDERDOG RACING TIPS publishes a subset of the Profit Rocket tips.
PROFIT ROCKET publishes a higher number of tips, with the aim of higher profit but lower ROI.
UNDERDOG RACING TIPS publishes a subset of the Profit Rocket tips, selecting only the highest rated horses. The aim is to have a higher ROI, but a lower profit.

A quick comparison over the last 19 completed months since Profit Rocket started shows Underdog’s ROI at 38% compared to Profit Rocket’s 32%.
This translates to a Profit Rocket profit of 42,089 from 6646 tips and 131,794 in stakes compared to Underdog’s 31,298 from 4079 tips and 81,466 in stakes.
Placing the same 131,794 stakes in Underdog tips would have resulted in a profit of 50,722 compared to Profit Rocket’s 42,089.
Bottom line is that Underdog Racing Tips delivered 21% more profit from 39% less tips – in other words more profit for less effort.

EOM UPDATE: My decision on Mar 8th to stop and takes profits was good. The decline in the middle of the month wiped out almost all of those profits although there was a strong last few days.

FOR APR 2025:
I like more profit for less effort so for April Profit Rocket is dropped and stakes are diverted to Underdog Racing Tips.
SVB Football tips has been performing poorly and is dropped. It is replaced by The Banker who is highly consistent and an average ROI around 30%.

Feb’25:
Profit: £104  Bank: £330

Target Profit = £170

EOM UPDATE: SVB football tips posted a loss this month.
The early profits from Underdog and ProfitRocket never really progressed much from the £375 profit on Feb 10th. And the continuing SVB losses just drained those profits away.
I should have been content with the £150 profit on Feb 10th. and rested up for the rest of the month.

FOR MAR 2025: I anticipate SVB football tips to bounce back and I’m sticking with ProfitRocket and Underdog Tips.
As usual, approximately 10% of bank will be bet each day split roughly equally across three tipsters.
SVB Football: is tipping at 3 tips per day at 5 pts per tip – this makes my stakes £0.80 /pt ≈ £4 / tip
Underdog Racing Tips: is tipping at 4 tips per day at 20 pts per tip (10pt eachway) – my stakes will be £0.20/pt  ≈ £4 / tip
Rocket Profit: is tipping at 6 tips per day and 20pts per tip (10pt eachway ) – my stakes will be  £0.10/pt  ≈ £2 / tip

Jan’25:
Profit: £126  Bank: £226

Target Profit = £93

FOR JAN 2025: More of the same please with SVB Tips and Rocket Profit.
Bank is reset to £100. Approximately 10% of bank will be bet each day split roughly equally across three tipsters.
SVB Football: is tipping at 2 tips per day at 5pts per tip – this makes my stakes £0.20/pt ≈ £1 / tip
SVB Racing: is tipping at 2 tips per day at 5pts per tip – my stakes will be £0.20/pt  ≈ £1 / tip
Rocket Profit: is tipping at 10 tips per day and 20pts per tip (10 pt eachway ) – my stakes will be  £0.02/pt  ≈ £0.40 / tip

END OF MONTH UPDATE:
I estimated the profit for January was going to be £93. Actual profit at end-of-month was 40% more at £126 !
I could/should have stopped on 26th/27th Feb with £85/£102 profit but with only 4 days left of the month I saw no real benefit doing that.
SVB Fooball and Rocket Profit delivered all of that while SVB Racing struggled to any profit at all during the month.

FOR FEB 2025:
I’m dropping SVB Racing tips replacing it with Underdog Racing Tips.
Bank is now £226 and a maximum of 10% of the bank will be bet each day split roughly equally across three tipsters.
SVB Football: stakes = £0.40/pt ≈ £2 / tip
Underdog Racing: stakes = £0.10/pt  ≈ £2 / tip
Rocket Profit: stakes = £0.05/pt ≈ £1/tip