- Underdog-racing-tips has been providing Horse racing tips since October 2019 producing an incredible 43% ROI with 36 profitable months from 45 total months tipping – providing a 80% chance of having a profitable month
- an average of 5 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £50 per day
- results to date show at best there’s over a 90% probability of making a profit with underdog-racing-tips over every 2 consecutive months.
Since joining Tipstrr 48 months ago in October 2019, UNDERDOG Racing Tips :
- has made a total cumulative profit of £40,262 and an average monthly profit of £838.
- predominantly tips the Each Way market.
- likes to tip at odds over 20.00+.
- typically uses a stake of 10/10.
- usually posts their tips around 8AM – 12PM.
- usually posts their tips around 6-12 hours before a fixture starts.
- UNDERDOG Racing Tips’ longest unbroken profit streak has been 11 months.
CONSISTENCY FACTOR : HIGH
Has Underdog Tips produced cosnsitent profits month after month?
Here’s how he has performed in the previous time periods for completed months.
TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH
The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.
Underdog-racing-tips’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 dec.places ) which indicates its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.
LOSING STREAKS : FAIRLY SHORT
How long will losing streaks be?
The tip Win Rate has been 24% over 5018 tips. This gives a tolerable ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 19 – in those 5018 tips you should have been prepared for 32 losing tips in a row.
Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 20 losing tips.
- In the next 3 months: At least one run of 24 losing tips.
- During the next 6 months: At least one run of 26 losing tips.
TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.
underdog-racing-tips‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.63 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.
VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD
Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?
At £39 per month the subscription cost is low.
Having an ROI of 43% means each 1% of ROI is costing £0.92 which which makes these tips great value.
BETTING STAKES : LOW
How much am I likely to be betting every day?
If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.
The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.
The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the WIn Rate and consequently what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day? or £100 a day?
To cover subscription costs £0.10 per point
Doing the calculations based on 43% ROI from 5 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point just to cover the £39 subscription cost.
£0.20 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.30 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £15 a day.
BETTING BANK SIZE : 480pts
How much money do I need to start with?
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will be sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The first month betting bank size for underdog-racing-tips would be 480 points.
So, if you were betting at £0.30/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £150.
EXPECTANCY : GOOD
How long before I can expect to make profit?
1 MONTH: If you’d followed underdog-racing-tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 80% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 5 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1180 points profit versus an average loss of -260 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 93% chance you’d make a profit. You were 14 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 5 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1930 points profit versus an average loss of -380 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 95% chance you’d make a profit. You were 21 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 8 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 2780 points profit versus an average loss of -370 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Profit||Avg.Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||45||36||9||80%||1180||-260||892||18|
|any 2 months||44||41||3||93%||1930||-380||1772||69|
|any 3 months||43||41||2||95%||2780||-370||2633||154|
|any 4 months||42||39||3||93%||3750||-160||3470||304|
|any 5 months||41||39||2||95%||4500||-220||4269||398|
|any 6 months||40||39||1||98%||5200||-490||5057||413|
Find out more about underdog-racing-tips here
If you enjoyed this article and found it useful you can subscribe to thebetinvestor to get notified when new articles like this are posted.