SPORTS INSIDER : 18% ROI 60% Win Rate on 1 tip a day

OVERVIEW :

Sports-insider has been providing Basketball and Football tips since August 2018 producing a very good 18% ROI with 38 profitable months from 54 total months tipping – providing a 70% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 1 tip per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £10 per day.

Based on past results at best there’s been a 84% chance of making a profit with Sports-insider during any consecutive 6 months.

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH

The p-value, which gives a measure of how likely it is these results to be achieved purely by chance is 0.0000 ( to 4 decimal places ).

This indicates its extremely unlikely Sports-insider’s results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : VERY SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

The tip Win Rate has been 63% over 937 tips. This gives a low ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 4 – in those 937 tips you should have been prepared for 7 losing tips in a row.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

• Over the next month: At least one run of 4 losing tips.
• In the next 3 months: At least one run of 5 losing tips.
• During the next 6 months: At least one run of 6 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Sports-insider‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.53 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

VALUE FOR MONEY : GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

Sports-insider’s overall ROI is 18%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £39. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £2.14 which is around average value.

Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.

BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.

To cover subscription costs £0.80 per point
Doing the calculations based on 18% ROI from 1 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.80 per point just to cover the £39 subscription cost.

£2.60 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £2.60 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £30 a day.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 100pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for Sports-insider would be 100 points.

So, if you were betting at £2.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £300.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Sports-insider for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 70% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 100 points profit versus an average loss of -60 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 81% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 150 points profit versus an average loss of -90 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 79% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 220 points profit versus an average loss of -80 points.

Find out more about Sports-insider here

Observations

Sports Insider tips predominantly on Football and Basketball.

In terms of ROI over different timeframes he does appear to perform generally better, and most definitely much better over the past year, with his Basketball tips.

In terms of Win Rate too his Basketball tips outperform his football tips over all timeframes of 3-months, 6-months, 12-months and all-time.

You could debatably dedicate your betting on his Basketball tips or alternatively perhaps follow both but with higher stakes on the Basketball tips.

There is a low volume of tips per day so how regularly you like to bet is going to play a part in your decision on which approach to adopt.

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