Date of Analysis: July 10, 2024
Summary
This analysis of GV Early Alerts is an interesting example of how a sports tipping service can change and evolve through time. It stresses the importance of looking beyond the high-level stats that appear at the top of the Tipstrr tipster pages.
It highlights how this service started as poor performing horse tipping service. Then changed approach and became extremely volatile by tipping very high odds accumulators. Finally settling back to a more consistent tipping service worthy of consideration for following.
Period 1: October 2019 to November 2020
Key metrics for this period:
- Total Tips: 1,008
- Average Monthly Tips: 84
- Overall Win Rate: 13.5%
- Total Profit: £2,053.15
- ROI: 16.9%
- Profitable Months: 5 out of 12 (41.7%)
- Best Month: September 2020 (£2,365.30 profit, 130% ROI)
- Worst Month: November 2019 (£479.75 loss, -43.6% ROI)
- Average Monthly Profit: £171.10
- Average Odds: 238.31 (skewed by extremely high odds in some months)
This period was characterized by extreme volatility. While the overall profit and ROI were impressive, they were largely driven by a few exceptional months, particularly September 2020. The majority of months (7 out of 12) were unprofitable, indicating significant risk and inconsistency.
Period 2: December 2020 to July 2024
Key metrics for this period:
- Total Tips: 3,867
- Average Monthly Tips: 88
- Overall Win Rate: 14.5%
- Total Profit: £6,273.99
- ROI: 16.2%
- Profitable Months: 30 out of 44 (68.2%)
- Best Month: March 2024 (£789.25 profit, 112.8% ROI)
- Worst Month: September 2022 (£389.5 loss, -39.3% ROI)
- Average Monthly Profit: £142.59
- Average Odds: 9.51
This period shows a more consistent performance with less extreme volatility. The win rate and ROI are similar to the first period, but with a much higher proportion of profitable months. The average monthly profit is slightly lower, but this is offset by more consistent results and lower risk.
Comparison of the Two Periods
| Metric | Oct 2019 - Nov 2020 | Dec 2020 - Jul 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Duration | 12 months | 44 months |
| Total Tips | 1,008 | 3,867 |
| Win Rate | 13.5% | 14.5% |
| ROI | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| Profitable Months | 41.7% | 68.2% |
| Average Monthly Profit | £171.10 | £142.59 |
| Average Odds | 238.31 | 9.51 |
Key Observations
- Consistency: The second period shows much greater consistency, with 68% profitable months compared to 42% in the first period.
- Risk: The first period had higher volatility, with extreme highs and lows. The second period shows more stable performance.
- ROI: Despite the differences, the overall ROI remained remarkably similar (16.9% vs 16.2%).
- Win Rate: There was a slight improvement in win rate from 13.5% to 14.5%.
- Average Odds: The first period had unusually high average odds, due to a extreme odds accumulators. The second period shows more realistic average odds for horse racing.
- Volume: The tipster increased their average monthly tips from 84 to 88, providing more betting opportunities.
Conclusion
GV Early Alerts has shown significant improvement in consistency and risk management from the first period to the second. While the overall ROI has remained relatively stable, the increased consistency in the second period suggests a more refined and reliable strategy.
The reduction in volatility and increase in the percentage of profitable months indicate that the tipster has likely improved their selection process and risk management. This could make the service more appealing to a broader range of bettors, especially those who prefer steady returns over high-risk, high-reward strategies.
However, it's important to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. While the long-term trend is positive, horse racing betting inherently carries risks, and users should always practice responsible bankroll management.
Next Steps
For those interested in following GV Early Alerts, the more consistent performance in recent years is encouraging. However, it's advisable to start with a conservative approach and closely monitor performance. As always, never bet more than you can afford to lose.
This analysis is based on data as presented on the Tipstrr site. There is no available access to the underlying database. Therefore, calculations may be inaccurate to a small degree but will be sufficiently accurate to provide useful information, indications and guidance.
