If you’ve been looking to find the best sports tipsters you’ll probably come across sites which run what they call “live trials” of tipsters as part of their review of the tipster.
But how useful are they really? What more does it prove about the tipster performance than the history right in front of you doesn’t?
Anatomy of a Live Trial
The “Live trial” normally starts with a “New Review” post with some background on the tipster their stats and explaining why it is of interest to the review site.
This is then followed up with regular updates on profits and losses etc. and how things are generally going.
At the end of the trial period, there’s typically a “Final Review” update showing the final figures – profit/loss, Strike Rate, ROI together with a rating or recommendation of some kind.
7-Day Trials Bad?
Trials on some review sites last as little a 7 days. This is a typical trial period that many tipsters offer and so there are no subscription costs for the review site.
But what’s the point of a 7-day trial?
Success or failure of a tipster can’t be gauged in just one week or even one month. Following a tipster is a long-term thing its the long-game which is important.
If the trial caught the tipster during a purple patch then results will be great and the review will be glowing. A bad week and the review might look pretty damning.
6-Month Trials Good?
Some sites, however, run “live” trials of tipsters lasting 6 months and more in some cases. And that’s a good thing. But is it everything it seems?
Smoke and Mirrors?
The cynic in me can see how its possible to simply use historical tips records to create the impression of a live-trial.
If you run a review site its possible to ask tipsters for free access to their tips in return for a running a trial and posting a hopefully positive review. But probably not for as long as 6 months I suspect. A month tops perhaps. So the review site pays for a 6 months subscription to the tipster? Maybe. Or could this just be a little bit of smoke and mirrors?
Any self-respecting tipster site is going to show the history of tips made by its tipsters – Googlesheets is a typical method to do this. So the data is there to use (or abuse).
N.B. You should avoid any tipster site that does not show a full history of a tipster’s tips. Even if they do you should always question whether the records could be “doctored” or manipulated in some way. You can read some of the ways tipsters try to scam you.
Even if everything was indeed kosher about the live trial, what has really been achieved?
If the 6-month trial happened a year ago its all just so much history now. You can see the profit and loss figures for yourself in the tipster’s results.
If you’re reading the review half-way through the trial it can be interesting reading. But would you act on a trial that was incomplete or want to see the final result? Perhaps human nature would be to wait until it is finished?
If the Final Review is hot off the press – just finished in the last few days – what can you learn from it? You’re 6 months down the line. There’s 6 months more historical data. It could have been a good 6 months, a bad 6 months or just ups and downs but no real change. The next 6-months are going to be different from the last 6-months. By how much? Who knows. You still have the same question now that you had 6 months ago – should I follow this tipster or not?
Perhaps the real benefit of a genuine live trial comes from getting an insight into how easy it was to follow the tipster. Do the tips come in good time to place the bet? At what time of the day do they come? Can you get close to the same odds as the tipsters selection and at bookmakers you use?
If you can’t get the bet on you’ll not make any money. If you can’t get the odds you’re never going to make the same profit the tipster’s stats suggest.
All of these things will be personal to you and your lifestyle. You might be permanently connected through your phone and can bet at a moments notice any time of the day. Maybe you want to have all your bets placed before going off to work?
Tipstrr shows you this type of information in great detail. The tipster’s stat page gives a list of the bookmakers used; the number of hours or days before the event the tips were published; and a breakdown of times of the day the tips are published.
Do any of these live trial reviews do a direct comparison tip-by-tip between the tipster’s “theoretical” odds, profits and ROI against the reviewer’s real-world experience?
They may exist but I’ve not seen any. It may be too much hard work and perhaps data-overload but I think it would be very insightful.