You must follow a tipster religiously – no dipping in and out or second-guessing – you must bet every tip. Right?
That’s what I used to believe. Until now.
Now I think in some cases you can actually pick which tips to bet on and make a good tipster even better.
The secret is in the stats.
SVB Tips is one of the tipsters in my current portfolio based on low-risk/high-reward, consistency, and value for money. The headline ROI right now is a reasonable 13.3%.
But I’m pretty sure I can improve on that by discovering some “hidden” clues in the breakdown sections of SVB Tips stats page.
Here’s how things looked on the SVB Tips stats page on 17 Dec 2019.
The all-time Sports Breakdown section read as follows:
|Sport||Tips||Strike rate||Profit||ROI||Avg. odds|
You can see most tips, in fact 80% of all tips are for horse racing and football.
And 83% of the total profit comes from just these two sports.
The other tips, for tennis, basketball and cricket and so on account for 20% of all tips and they only contribute 17% of the total profit.
You’re getting more profit per tip from horse racing and football than the other sports.
So does it make sense to ignore the other sports and bet only on the football tips and horse racing tips?
|Stake||Tips||Strike rate||Profit||ROI||Avg. odds|
In the breakdown section for the stakes advised by the tipster the profit and ROI figures for 5-point tips are much better than for the 10-point tips.
There has been over 8 times more profit from the 5-point tips and almost 4 times the ROI.
Wouldn’t you be better off only betting the 5-point tips and ignoring the 10-point ones?
Market Type Breakdown
|Market type||Tips||Strike rate||Profit||ROI||Avg. odds|
The betting market breakdown section shows the ROIs for “Match Winner” and “Other” are lower than the other markets.
Should you not bet on these? Should you ignore them and stake more on the tips for “Race winner”, “1X2” and “Over/Under”?
Time Before the Event Breakdown
|Time before event||Tips||Strike rate||Profit||ROI||Avg. odds|
|Less than 1 hour||9||67%||53.8||89.70%||2.6|
The tips published 1 or 2 days before the event have a much poorer ROI than those under 24 hours. And the tips published more than 3 days before the event have actually made a loss. Do you say I don’t trust these and never bet on them?
All the other time frames have more bets and bigger profits and better ROIs. Should I only bet on these?
|1.01 to 1.69||24||46%||-60.57||-27.50%|
|1.70 to 2.39||673||52%||379.59||7.40%|
|2.40 to 3.99||993||38%||874.3||15.50%|
|4.00 to 5.99||589||26%||532.21||18.10%|
|6.00 to 11.99||396||15%||196.75||9.90%|
|12.00 to 19.99||111||7%||27||4.90%|
Tips with odds between 1.01 to 1.69 seem to be the losers here.
56% of the tips lie in the 2.40 to 5.99 odds bands and have provided 63% of the total profit. The tips in this odds band also produce an ROI of almost 16.5% rather than the overall 13.3% for SVB Tips as a whole.
Its a lot fewer bets but could I make a better ROI only betting on tips with odds between 2.40 and 5.99?
Each of these breakdown sections presents an opportunity to make more money and better ROI while spending less time placing fewer bets.
- Bet only on horse racing and football tips
- Bet only 5-point tips
- Bet only “Race winner”, “1X2” and “Over/Under” tips
- Bet only on tips published under 24-hours before the event
- Bet only on tips where odds are 2.40 or greater
Each one of these options produces a better ROI than blindly betting on all tips.
But is there one which is better than all the others?
The table below compares how each selection scenario would affect profit and ROI.
It includes all tips over all time.
%Tips is the shows the percentage of all tips each selective criteria would be of all tips – for example only betting on the horse racing and football tips would be 85% of all tips.
Profit shows the number of points profit made by following just these tips – for example only betting on the 5-pt tips produced 1995 points profit.
%Profit shows what percentage of the overall profit this selection scenario produces – for example betting only on those tips that were published 24 hours or less before the event produced 104.5% of the profit if you had bet on all tips.
ROI is the Return of Investment that each selection scenario delivers – for example betting only on tips where the odds are 2.40 or greater produced an ROI of 16.9%.
|Horse Racing & Football||79.9%||1850||83.2%||15.1%|
|Only 5 pt tips||82.0%||1995||89.7%||17.4%|
|“Race winner”, “1X2” and “Over/Under”||81.4%||1877||84.0%||14.8%|
|Less than 24-hrs before the event||90.6%||2334||104.5%||15.1%|
|Only odds 2.40 and above||75.4%||1905||85.7%||16.9%|
Its that 104.5% in the %Profit column for the “Less than 24-hrs before the event” scenario that really stands out.
Selecting only these tips doesn’t deliver the best ROI but importantly it does produce the most profit. And it includes over 90% of all tips.
Put another way, you’re eliminating 10% of bets which lose you money – which can only be good.
This is the analysis of all tips over all time – a snapshot at a point in time.
But how well has each scenario performed over different time periods? Is there consistency?
For example, has the profit for the “Less than 24-hrs before the event” scenario been better consistently over the previous 6 months, the previous 3 months and the most recent 1-month periods?
Betting only Horse Racing & Football tips
|Horse Racing & Football||%Tips||Profit||%Profit||ROI|
The percentage of tips that are horse racing or football has been fairly consistent over all time frames.
Only once, in the most recent 3-month period, did the %Profit break the 100% barrier i.e. there was more profit from betting on only these selected tips than betting on all tips.
Betting only 5-point tips
|Only 5 pt tips||%Tips||Profit||%Profit||ROI|
Ignoring the 10 point tips and following only the 5 point tips has been advantageous (%Profit over 100%) over the previous 6-, 3-, and 1-month periods.
Over all-time it has been disadvantageous to only bet on the 5 point tips.
Betting only “Race winner”, “1X2” and “Over/Under” markets
|“Race winner”, “1X2” and “Over/Under”||%Tips||Profit||%Profit||ROI|
There has been no period of time over which it has been advantageous to be selective on Market Type. The %Profit figure has never been greater than 100%.
Betting only tips of odds 2.40 and above
|Only odds 2.40 and above||%Tips||Profit||%Profit||ROI|
Only over the recent 6-month period has it been marginally advantageous to bet only of tips where the odds are 2.40 or greater.
Over the last 1-month it has been particularly worse.
Betting only tips published 24-hrs or less before the event
I left this table to the end because it is the most interesting.
|Less than 24-hrs before the event||%Tips||Profit||%Profit||ROI|
It shows that the number of tips that are being published 24 hours or less before the event has been decreasing over time – 90.6% for all-time down to 61.1% for the last month.
But the immediately obvious thing is that the %Profit has been consistently over 100% for all time periods. In other words, being selective in this way has avoided losing bets and delivered more profit than blindly betting all tips.
The all-time ROI for only betting these tips has been 15.1% compared with the all-time all-tips ROI of 13.3%.
The 6-month all-tips ROI was 9.77%. Betting only on these tips over the 6-months produced a 12.1% ROI – over 2 percentage points better.
It the same story for the 3-months time-frame – all-tips ROI was 8.82% – these tips better at 13.6% – almost 5 percentage points better. And the story is repeated for the 1-month time-frame too.
For me, this is fairly conclusive proof that it is more profitable to bet only on those SVB Tips tips published 24-hrs or less before the event.
Could a combination of scenarios be even more profitable?
Choosing to bet on only the 5 point tips has been a more profitable scenario also.
It begs the question then would choosing the tips to bet on based on both these selection criteria be even more profitable? i.e. the tip must be for 5 points and be published less than 24-hrs before the event.
The analysis is a little more complex. I can’t simply add the figures in the breakdown stats above because the two scenarios are not mutually exclusive. That is, the same tip may be both 5 points and under 24 hours or vice versa.
Sadly, I don’t have ready access to this basic data and it would take a great deal of effort to get it so that question is going to remain unanswered for now.
UPDATE: 1 Jan 2020
The analysis above was done on data up to and including 17th Dec 2019.
Here’s how applying the “24 hours or less” selection criteria affected profits for the remainder of Dec from the 18th to the 31st.
We would have bet on 69% of all the tips published and made 89% of the all-tips profit – producing a better ROI of 50% instead of 38%.
Put another way, if we had staked the same amount of £350 on the selected tips that we would have made £175 profit instead of £134 – that’s 30% better.
|ALL Tips||Only 24hrs or less|
It paid off only betting on those tips published 24 hours or less before event time – confirming the conclusion from the initial analysis.