OutsiderSpeedPicks : 50% ROI 15 profitable months from 20

OVERVIEW :

Outsiderspeedpicks has been providing Horse racing tips since May 2021 producing an incredible 50% ROI with 15 profitable months from 20 total months tipping – providing a 75% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 3 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £3 per day.

Analysis of the results to date show at best there’s been a 100% probability of making a profit with Outsiderspeedpicks over every 5 consecutive months.

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH

The statistical p-value provides an indication of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky?

Outsiderspeedpicks’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 decimal places) – in other words there’s a 0% probability these results are due to luck.

This suggests its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : VERY LONG

How long will losing streaks be?

The all-time tip Win Rate over 1531 tips has been 14%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should be prepared for the following losing streaks over the next periods of time:

• In the next month: At least one run of 26 losing tips.
• In the next 3 months: At least one run of 34 losing tips.
• During the next 6 months: At least one run of 39 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Outsiderspeedpicks‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.39 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

With an ROI of 50% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.38 which is great value.

However, taking out a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper per month and you can always cancel the subscription and get a refund if things don’t work out.

BETTING STAKES : LOW

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

£0.50 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 50% ROI from 3 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1.5 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.50 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£2.70 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £2.70 per point. This means betting in the region of £10 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 80pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for Outsiderspeedpicks would be 80 points.

So, if you were betting at £2.70/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £200.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I could expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Outsiderspeedpicks for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 75% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 4 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1630 points profit versus an average loss of -440 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 74% chance you’d make a profit. You were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 9 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 3200 points profit versus an average loss of -360 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 83% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 13 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 4330 points profit versus an average loss of -330 points.

Find out more about Outsiderspeedpicks here

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