ZENITH : Relentless bank growth – a nice problem to have

Overview of service

Summary: Zenith has been publishing football tips for 18 months at the time of this analysis. 17 of those 18 months have been profitable.

The tip Win Rate is around 45% overall and the all-time ROI is around 7.5% however the most recent 3-month ROI is 12%.

Tips are predominantly in the Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets although Double Chance and 1X2 account for 20% of the tips. His Win Rate is remarkably consistent across all the markets.

You can expect an average of 10 – 12 tips per day advised either as a 5 point or 10 point bet. They are published well in advance of the event and typically in the mornings UK time.

PROs

  • Relentless consistency
  • Good ROI for a football tipster
  • Low-risk
  • Medium reward
  • Value-for-money
  • Small betting bank required

CONs

  • Number of bets

PROFIT

Return On Investment

The all-time ROI of zenith has been 7.6%. You might consider this fairly low but when this has been produced consistently over almost 2 years its quite remarkable.

The ROI has actually been increasing over the most recent time periods as shown below. Rising from 7% over the last year to 12% ROI over the most recent 3 months.

Overall 12mth 6mth 3mth
7.6% 7% 9% 12%

 

Return on Capital

The Return On Capital (ROC) figure for the Zenith tips is an incredible 1400%.

In other words, an original bank of 300 units would have grown to more than 4,000 units.

Betting Bank Growth in Money Terms

If you had set the stake size for each new month as 1% of the available betting bank. Starting with a betting bank of £300 in August’19 you would have been placing £3 bets on average.

A year later, in Aug’20, your £300 bank would have grown £2,700 and you’d be placing £25 bets.

Theoretically, by Feb’21 your bank would stand at £21,000 and you’d be placing £150 bets.

When success gets to these levels your biggest problem is getting bets on and not having bookie accounts closed because you’re winning too much.

Consistency

The Zenith consistency is reflected in the performance graph which is practically a straight-line growth in profits.

Seventeen profitable months from 18 months of service. Only Jan’20 was a losing month and a small one at that – just 20 points lost. That is truly remarkable.

 

COST

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster. And you’re paying a subscription fee for that.

Each percentage of ROI therefore has a monetary £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 in subscription fee means each 1% of ROI costs £2)

This is a useful way to compare tipsters when shopping around for value-for-money – how much is each 1% of ROI costing you.

Zenith’s 7.6% ROI costs £19 per month in subscription fee. Each 1% of ROI, therefore, costs around £2.50. Compared with an average £2.20 this is a little above average. But, for me, that consistency far outweighs any subscription cost concern.

Staking

Zenith has published over 7000 tips and generally speaking it’s a 50/50 split between 5 points and 10 points tips (average stake is 7.7 points).

He’s producing practically the same ROI from the 5 point tips as he is from the 10 point tips. The WIn Rate for both is 43% and the ROI is 7.7% for 5 point tips and 7.3% for 10 point tips.

Which kind of begs the question why not simply go for levels stakes?

Betting Bank

The betting bank size for Zenith based on the 45% WIn Rate would be around 300 points.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The 300 points figure is based on having enough to suffer a worst-case scenario of two longest losing runs in a row and still have something left to continue betting.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

Zenith has published roughly 7000 tips and over the last 6 months has averaged around 385 tips per month – that’s 10 – 12 tips per day.

At this current rate then we might expect a further 2000 tips over the next 6 months taking the total to 9,000 tips.

The ELLR for 9000 tips at a 45% Win Rate is marginally higher at 15. But no real change from the current ELLR figure.

So a start-up Betting Bank Size of 300 points should be adequate.

RISK

Volatility

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?

From the performance so far – 17 profitable months from 18 and a straight-line bank growth –  I think it’s fair to say Zenith’s volatility is very low.

Based on this you’d be unlucky to hit a losing month when you join.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low are very strong evidence against it being luck or chance.

Zenith’ p-value based on all 7000 tips is currently 0.00001% – clearly very strong evidence against this success being just luck – much more likely is the ROI being produced by Zenith is due to skill or expertise.

Estimated Longest Losing Run

The bet Win Rate of 45% indicates an ELLR of around 15 based on the 7000 tips published in the last 18 months.

This changes very little over the next 2,000 tips/bets – the equivalent of 6 months. In other words, you should expect and plan for 15 (or more) losing bets in a row.

With Zenith’ average stake size being 7.7 points a streak of 15 losing bets would result in a total loss of 115 points –  £115 at £1/pt or £575 at £5/point betting.

If you started with a Betting Bank of 300 units and you hit a worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with about 70 units to start over (300 minus 2 x 115).

In reality, though provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be substantially less.

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility).

Zenith’s current Risk/Reward figure is very good. The 0.85 number (a ratio of 6 to 7) indicates there is more reward on offer here than there is risk.

EFFORT

Time Commitment

This is maybe where there is a downside to the Zenith service. There’s quite a lot of betting for you to do – an average of 10 to 12 tips per day.

For some, this will actually be a positive thing while for others it may prove difficult to manage.

The timing of these gives a better indication of how you might be able to fit this into your day.

  • two-thirds (67%) of all tips are published in the morning between before 12noon (UK time)
  • about a quarter are published in the afternoons/evenings to 8pm
  • slightly more than half are posted over 6 hours ahead of the event which should give ample time to get bets on

CONCLUSION

This technical analysis has covered 18 completed months and over 7000 tips of Zenith’s results from Sep’19 to Mar’21.

With 17 profitable months from 18, all the technical indicators suggest this is an extremely investable tipster.

Zenith is a low-risk medium-reward investment requiring a relatively small bank to follow. The performance to date has been consistent and outstanding.

The recommendations would be:

  • set aside a 300 point betting bank
  • be prepared for a run of 15 losing bets in the next 6 months
  • use 1% of bank per point staking
  • adjust the £/point staking on a weekly basis
  • test profitability using Betfair exchange
  • use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate through them
  • investigate the use of a bet broker for placing higher stakes

Find out more about Zenith here

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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