Underdog Racing Tips Revisited: Are we heading into 5 years of over 30% ROI?

Date of Analysis: July 3, 2024

Underdog Racing Tips is a horse racing tipster service that has been providing betting advice since October 2019. Specializing in high-odds selections, this tipster has garnered attention for their unique approach to horse racing predictions.

Our analysis covers 55 months of data, revealing an impressive overall Return on Investment (ROI) of 39%. With more than 7,600 tips provided over this period, Underdog Racing Tips averages 5 tips per day. This substantial dataset offers a comprehensive view of the tipster’s performance, showcasing both the potential for significant profits and the inherent risks associated with their high-odds strategy.

Overall Performance and Profitability

Underdog Racing Tips has demonstrated remarkable profitability over the 55-month period analyzed. With an overall ROI of 39%, this tipster’s performance falls into the exceptional category. The cumulative profit stands at an impressive £58,300, showcasing the potential for significant returns when following their advice.

However, it’s crucial to note that this high profitability comes with considerable risk if your looking for race winners. The average odds of 17.05 indicate that Underdog Racing Tips focuses on long-shot selections, which naturally come with a lower win rate. The overall horse win rate of 6% reflects this high-risk approach, but the tip win rate of 23% suggests a more nuanced strategy that includes each-way bets and other profitable outcomes beyond outright wins.

Consistency and Recent Performance

While the overall performance is impressive, consistency is a key factor to consider. Underdog Racing Tips has shown varying levels of consistency over different time periods:

  • Recent 3 months (May 2024 – July 2024): ROI of 32%
  • Recent 6 months (February 2024 – July 2024): ROI of 36%
  • Recent 12 months (August 2023 – July 2024): ROI of 35%

These figures suggest that the tipster has maintained a consistent level of performance in recent months, aligning closely with their long-term average. This consistency is particularly impressive given the high-risk nature of their strategy.

Number of Tips and Win Rates

Over the 55-month period, Underdog Racing Tips provided a total of 7,565 tips, averaging 137 tips per month. It’s important to distinguish between two types of win rates:

  1. Horse Win Rate: The average rate at which the selected horses actually win their races is 6%. This low percentage is expected given the high average odds of 17.05.
  2. Tip Win Rate: The rate at which the bets made a profit, regardless of whether the horse won the race or not, is 23%. This higher percentage reflects the use of each-way bets and other strategies that can yield profits even when horses place but don’t win.

This distinction is crucial for understanding the tipster’s strategy. While the selected horses rarely win outright, the betting approach allows for profitability even when horses place or show, leading to the impressive overall ROI.

Long-term Trend and ROI

The long-term trend for Underdog Racing Tips is undeniably positive. The ROI has remained remarkably stable over different time frames:

  • 2-year ROI: 38%
  • 3-year ROI: 41%
  • 4-year ROI: 39%

This consistency over extended periods is a strong indicator of the tipster’s skill and the potential sustainability of their strategy. It’s particularly impressive given the high-risk nature of their approach.

Risk Level Assessment

The risk level associated with Underdog Racing Tips‘ strategy is high. The combination of high average odds and a very low horse win rate means that followers should be prepared for potentially long losing streaks and significant bankroll fluctuations. However, the higher tip win rate somewhat mitigates this risk, explaining the overall profitability despite the low horse win rate.

Statistical Measures of Performance

Skill Factor (p-value): The calculated p-value is effectively 0, which translates to a skill factor of nearly 100%. This suggests that Underdog Racing Tips‘ performance is highly unlikely to be due to chance alone, indicating a significant level of skill in their selection process.

Sharpe Ratio: The calculated Sharpe Ratio is 0.61. While positive, this value suggests that the returns, while substantial, come with a considerable level of risk. A higher Sharpe Ratio would indicate better risk-adjusted returns. However, given the high-risk nature of the strategy, this Sharpe Ratio is still impressive.

Future Projections and Risk Management

Based on the historical data, we can make some projections for future performance:

  • Estimated Longest Losing Run: For an average month with 150 tips, the estimated longest losing run is 20 consecutive losses. This could extend to 22 losses over a two-month period (300 tips) or 24 losses over three months (450 tips).
  • Recommended Betting Bank: To withstand two of these potential losing runs in quick succession, a betting bank of at least 50 units is advisable. This should provide enough cushion to weather extended downswings while allowing for recovery and growth.
  • Monthly Profit Probability: There’s an 84% chance of profit in any given month. The average monthly profit is £1,320, while the average monthly loss is £241. That is roughly 5 times more likely to make £1,320 profit than lose £241 *.
  • Two-Month Profit Probability: Over a two-month period, the probability of profit increases to 94%. The average two-month profit is £2,291, while the average two-month loss is £379. In other words, about 6 times more likely to make £2,291 profit than lose £379 *.

* These figures are rounded to provide a simpler, more memorable summary while still accurately representing the general risk-reward profile of following this tipster.

Risk Factor Assessment

Risk Factor: High

Following Underdog Racing Tips involves a reasonable level of risk. This is due to the focus on long-shot selections with high average odds and a very low horse win rate. While this approach has led to impressive profits over time, it also means that losing streaks when your looking for race winners can be longer and more severe than with more conservative strategies. Followers should be prepared for significant bankroll swings and have the emotional resilience to stick with the strategy during inevitable downswings. However, the higher tip win rate and consistent long-term profitability suggest that this risk is well-managed by the tipster’s strategy.

What Tipstrr shows you – just the last 12 months

This chart shows the cumulative profits for the last 12 months, which is similar to what Tipstrr typically displays. It’s important to note that this view only provides a snapshot of recent performance and doesn’t show the full history. Tipstrr’s “at a glance” figures for ROI, Tips per Week, Win Rate, etc., on their main page only cover this recent period, which may not always be representative of the tipster’s long-term performance. For a complete picture, it’s crucial to consider the tipster’s entire history, as we’ve done in our full analysis.


Underdog Racing Tips presents an intriguing opportunity for horse racing bettors. With a strong long-term ROI and consistent performance across various timeframes, this tipster has demonstrated a potentially viable strategy for profiting from high-odds selections.

However, it’s crucial to understand that this approach comes with significant risks. The low horse win rate and high average odds mean that losing streaks are inevitable and can be prolonged. The higher tip win rate suggests that the tipster is likely using strategies such as each-way betting to mitigate some of this risk, but the overall approach remains high-risk, high-reward.

For bettors who can tolerate this level of risk and have the discipline to stick to a strict betting strategy, Underdog Racing Tips could be a valuable addition to their betting portfolio. However, it’s not suitable for everyone, and should only be considered by those with a good understanding of betting principles and risk management.

Remember, responsible gambling is paramount. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and if you feel that your gambling is becoming problematic, seek help immediately.

As with any betting strategy, it’s important to do your own research and potentially start with paper trading before committing real money. While the historical performance of Underdog Racing Tips is impressive, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Whether you decide to follow this tipster or not, we hope this analysis has provided valuable insights into the world of high-odds horse racing betting and the importance of thorough statistical analysis in evaluating betting strategies.

Next Steps

Based on our comprehensive analysis, following Underdog Racing Tips could potentially be profitable for bettors who are comfortable with high levels of risk and have the discipline to maintain a proper betting strategy. However it’s always important to approach with caution and use proper bankroll management.

If you’re considering following this tipster, here are some recommendations:

  1. Start Small: Begin with a small portion of your betting budget to test the waters and get comfortable with the strategy.
  2. Maintain a Sufficient Bankroll: Ensure you have at least 30 units in your betting bank to withstand potential losing streaks.
  3. Stay Disciplined: Stick to the recommended stake sizes and avoid chasing losses.
  4. Monitor Performance: Regularly review your results and adjust your approach if necessary.
  5. Understand the Risks: Remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Be prepared for periods of volatility.

For those interested in exploring Underdog Racing Tips further, you can find more information and detailed statistics using the buttons below:

This analysis is based on data as presented on the Tipstrr site. There is no available access to the underlying database. Therefore, calculations may be inaccurate to a small degree but will be sufficiently accurate to provide useful information, indications and guidance.



I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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