Horse Racing tipster on Bettinggods since October 2020.
Tipping Maestro has produced a very good 17% ROI with 14 profitable months from 19 total months tipping – 74% success rate.
On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £3 per day.
Skill Factor: LOW
The p-value, which gives a measure of how likely it is these results to be achieved purely by chance is 0.0310 ( to 4 decimal places ).
This indicates its unlikely Tipping Maestro’s results could be achieved by pure chance..
Losing Streaks: FAIRLY SHORT
Over 19 months there have been 583 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 30%. This gives a tolerable ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 18. In other words you should have been prepared for 18 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.
With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 10 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 13 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 15 losing tips.
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.
Tipping Maestro’s coefficient of variation figure is 2.15 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
At £27 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.
Having an ROI of 17% means each 1% of ROI is costing £1.62 which which makes these tips around average value.
However, a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get some money back if things don’t work out.
Staking Levels: REASONABLE
If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.
The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.
The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.
£2.20 per point to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 17% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 pt. you’d need to be betting at £2.20 per point just to cover the £27 subscription cost.
£10.00 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £10.00 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £30 a day.
Betting Bank: 58pts
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The betting bank size for Tipping Maestro would be around 58 points.
So, if you were betting at £10.00/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £600.
1 MONTH: If you’d followed Tipping Maestro for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 72% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 136 points profit versus an average loss of -106 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 82% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 209 points profit versus an average loss of -155 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 81% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 295 points profit versus an average loss of -118 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total Periods||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Period Profit||Avg.Period Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||18||13||5||72%||136||-106||68||1|
|any 2 months||17||14||3||82%||209||-155||144||1|
|any 3 months||16||13||3||81%||295||-118||217||2|
|any 4 months||15||13||2||87%||366||-91||305||4|
|any 5 months||14||13||1||93%||415||-1||385||415|
|any 6 months||13||13||0||100%||449||0||449||449|
Find out more about Tipping Maestro here
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