They-shouldnt-be-those-odds
Overview:
Professional Horse racing Tipster since 1st December 2021.
They-shouldnt-be-those-odds has produced a very good 19% ROI with 4 profitable months from 4 total months tipping – a 100% success rate.
On average there are 5 tips per day typically advised at an average 20 points which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £100 per day.
Skill Factor: UNCERTAIN
They-shouldnt-be-those-odds‘s statistical p-value is 0.0724 ( to 4 decimal places ). This indicates there’s a 7% probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.There’s not enough data, however, to say whether this a reliable figure or not.
Losing Streaks: FAIRLY SHORT
The all-time tip Win Rate has been 34% over 4 months and 670 tips which gives a tolerable ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 16 – you should be prepared for 16 losing tips in a row.
Based on this you should anticipate encountering the following longest losing runs:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 12 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 15 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 16 losing tips.
Risk: LOW
They-shouldnt-be-those-odds‘s performance is stable which means risk is low. The coefficient of variation figure is 0.26 which reflects how much volatility, or risk, is assumed in comparison to the amount of return expected from investments. The lower the ratio of the standard deviation to mean return, the better risk-return trade-off.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
The subscription cost is £29 per month so with an ROI of 19% this means each 1% of ROI costs £1.52 which is around average value.
Staking Levels: LOW
£0.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on this 19% ROI from 5 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 20 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £29 subscription cost.
£0.30 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.30 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £30 a day.
Expectancy
1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 1513 points profit.
2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 2823 points profit.
3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 4235 points profit.
| Consecutive Periods | Total Periods | Made Profit | Made Loss | %Profitable | Avg.Period Profit | Avg.Period Loss | Expectancy | Profit Factor |
| any 1 month | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1513 | 0 | 1513 | 1513 |
| any 2 months | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 2823 | 0 | 2823 | 2823 |
| any 3 months | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 4235 | 0 | 4235 | 4235 |
| any 4 months | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 6055 | 0 | 6055 | 6055 |
Observations
There’s more than 500 tips to base a solid technical analysis on here but at the time of this post there’s another month-and-a-half to go to meet my 6 months minimum.
Nevertheless They-shouldnt-be-those-odds is of interest, particularly because it is a “value” based approach and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Tipstrr Stats page shows incorrect Odds breakdown
The Tipstrr stats page for this horse racing tipster appears to be wrong (as at 18 Apr 2022). It shows the following breakdown.
| Odds | Tips | Strike rate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01to1.69 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1.70to2.39 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2.40to3.99 | 445 | 8% | 970.50 | 21.8% |
| 4.00to5.99 | 122 | 8% | 823 | 67.5% |
| 6.00to11.99 | 322 | 9% | 873.50 | 27.1% |
| 12.00to19.99 | 288 | 5% | -273 | -9.5% |
| 20.00+ | 162 | 4% | 162.50 | 10.0% |
Comparing this against the actual Tips there are no tips at odds below 9.0 (8/1). I’m waiting to hear back from Tipstrr support to understand what’s going on.
Tips over 20/1 have lost money
An analysis of the actual odds breakdown from the results data shows historically that there is no profit being produced from tips at over 21.0 (20/1) – they are actually making a small loss.
If you ignore tips over odds of 21.0 (20/1) you would have had fewer tips – 540 tips rather than 694 – that’s 78% of all tips.
And the profit would have been more – 2620 pts instead of 2556 pts.
Bottom line – that means fewer tips – less effort – more profit – and overall much better use of your time.
You can find out more about They-shouldnt-be-those-odds here
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