THEBANKER has been providing Horse racing tips since June 2019 delivering an incredible 50% ROI over 38 total months of tips. He has had 28 profitable months out of those 38 which is 74% success rate.
On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 5 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £10 per day.
Analysis of the results to date show at best there’s been a 100% probability of making a profit with THEBANKER over every 5 consecutive months.
28 / 38
5mth – 100%
TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH
The p-value, which gives a measure of how likely it is these results to be achieved purely by chance is 0.0000 ( to 4 decimal places ).
This indicates its extremely unlikely THEBANKER’s results could be achieved by pure chance.
LOSING STREAKS : LONG
How long will losing streaks be?
Over 38 months there have been 1462 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 17%. This gives an ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 40. In other words you should have been prepared for 40 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.
With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 22 losing tips.
- In the next 3 months: At least one run of 28 losing tips.
- During the next 6 months: At least one run of 32 losing tips.
TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.
THEBANKER‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.12 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.
VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD
Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?
At £29 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.
With an ROI of 50% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.58 which is great value.
However, taking out a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper per month and you can always cancel the subscription and get a refund if things don’t work out.
BETTING STAKES : LOW
How much am I likely to be betting every day?
£0.20 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 50% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 5.5 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.20 per point just to cover the £29 subscription cost.
£0.90 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.90 per point. This means betting in the region of £15 a day.
N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.
BETTING BANK SIZE : 280pts
How much money do I need to start with?
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will be enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The first month betting bank size for THEBANKER would be around 280 points.
So, if you were betting at £0.90/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £250.
EXPECTANCY : POOR
How long before I can expect to make profit?
1 MONTH: If you’d followed THEBANKER for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 74% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 880 points profit versus an average loss of -430 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 86% chance you’d make a profit. You were 6 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 4 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1290 points profit versus an average loss of -360 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 97% chance you’d make a profit. You were 35 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 33 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1640 points profit versus an average loss of -50 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Profit||Avg.Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||38||28||10||74%||880||-430||535||2|
|any 2 months||37||32||5||86%||1290||-360||1067||3|
|any 3 months||36||35||1||97%||1640||-50||1593||32|
|any 4 months||35||34||1||97%||2150||-80||2086||26|
|any 5 months||34||34||0||100%||2620||0||2620||2620|
|any 6 months||33||33||0||100%||3150||0||3150||3150|
Find out more about THEBANKER here
If you enjoyed this article and found it useful you can subscribe to thebetinvestor to get notified when new articles like this are posted.