Horse Racing tipster since November 2021.
The Racing Pundit has produced a very good 20% ROI with 6 profitable months from 6 total months tipping – 100% success rate.
On average there’s 5 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £5 per day.
The Racing Pundit
Skill Factor: VERY LOW
The statistical p-value provides an indication of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky?
The Racing Pundit’s p-value is 0.0318 (to 4 decimal places) – in other words there’s a 3.1838% probability these results are due to luck.
This suggests its unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..
Losing Streaks: FAIRLY SHORT
The all-time tip Win Rate over 835 tips has been 33%.
You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 13 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 16 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 17 losing tips.
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.
The Racing Pundit’s coefficient of variation figure is 1.05 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
The monthly subscription cost is £37 which is reasonable. The Racing Pundit’s overall ROI of 20% means that each 1% of ROI costs £1.88 which is around average value.
Generally, subscriptions costs are typically less per month if you take a 3-month or even 6-month subscription and you can always cancel and get a refund should things not go the way you hoped.
Staking Levels: REASONABLE
If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.
The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.
The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.
£1.30 per point to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 20% ROI from 5 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 pt. you’d need to be betting at £1.30 per point just to cover the £37 subscription cost.
£4.60 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £4.60 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £25 a day.
Betting Bank: 46pts
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The betting bank size for The Racing Pundit would be around 46 points.
So, if you were betting at £4.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £250.
1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 315 points profit.
2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 686 points profit.
3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 1128 points profit.
|Consecutive Periods||Total Periods||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Period Profit||Avg.Period Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||5||5||0||100%||315||0||315||315|
|any 2 months||4||4||0||100%||686||0||686||686|
|any 3 months||3||3||0||100%||1128||0||1128||1128|
|any 4 months||2||2||0||100%||1372||0||1372||1372|
|any 5 months||1||1||0||100%||1579||0||1579||1579|
Find out more about The Racing Pundit here
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