THE BASKETBALL GEEK
The Basketball Geek, as the name implies is a basketball tipster and is part of the Bettinggods stable.
The service went live to the public mid-Apr’20 after a 25-week proofing period.
There have been over 900 tips and 8 winning months from 8 months of operation producing an overall ROI of over 20%.
On average there are 4 tips per day usually sent in the morning between 8am. and 10am.
The staking approach is a straight-forward 1 unit per tip. Daily bet stakes, therefore, averages 4 units (£40 at £10/unit).
- High ROI
- 8 out of 8 profitable months
- Value for Money
- Low risk
- Small Betting Bank
- Easy to follow
- Only 8 months of results
Overview of service
Analysis of tips to date shows that the service started off in Nov’19 exclusively using the Under/Overs market. Two months later, in early Jan’20 it expanded to include Home/Away and Asian Handicap markets.
Average odds are around 2.20 and mostly range between 1.70 and 2.39.
Interestingly, there have been some very short and some very long odds tips over 6.00 which have been very profitable.
Following this service is as easy as it gets. A straightforward level-stakes staking plan and a regular mid-morning publication window.
N.B. The calculations and figures in this assessment are based on all results from Nov’19 which includes the Bettinggods proofing period before the service was made available to the public.
Return On Investment
It’s not possible to calculate a full 12-month ROI as The Basketball Geek has not been in operation for that long but the overall ROI and the previous 6 and 3-month periods have produced very consistent results.
Profit too has been very steady. Monthly profit has ranged between 15 units (Dec’19) and 38 units (Feb’20). The average monthly profit has been 25 units or £250 at £10/unit stakes.
Return on Capital
Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 50 units, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is almost 400%.
In other words, your original bank of 50 units would be 4 times bigger and grown to over 200 units.
Now in Jun’20 there have been 8 winning months from 8 months of tips including the proofing period from Nov’19 to mid-Apr’20.
The Basketball Geek has been a model of consistency. Both the profit figures and the ROI figures have been steady month on month with little significant variance.
Value for Money
A months subscription to The Basketball Geek currently costs £27. With an ROI of 20% that means you are buying 1% of ROI for about £1.30.
Although there are some better Value-for-Money tipsters this is very reasonable considering the high ROI.
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on their Win Rate / Strike Rate.
The Basketball Geek’s Win Rate is 54%. Using 1 unit stakes per bet this suggests a start-up Betting bank in the region of 30 -50 units – assuming average risk. Bettinggods recommends a very conservative 75 unit Betting Bank.
The Basketball Geek operates a straightforward level-stakes staking plan so every tip is a 1 point bet.
An average of 4 tips a day means a typical outlay of 4 units on an average day.
This is a very manageable £40 of bets per day if you follow the tips at £10 per unit.
I’ll be more comfortable assessing the volatility of The Basketball Geek after 12 months of results but the figures so far are impressive.
The Coefficient of Variance figure which gauges volatility is very low meaning volatility is very low. You can see this reflected in the profit graph which deviates very little from the straight line.
Skill versus Chance
There is very strong evidence that the ROI being produced by The Basketball Geek is not due to chance.
The statistical p-value that is used to give us this indicator is extremely low (the lower this figure is the better). At 0.000002% this suggests there is 2-in-a-million possibility that these results could be obtained through chance alone.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The ELLR for a Win Rate of 54% is 9 at this point with nearly 1,000 tips.
If the WIn Rate is maintained the ELLR or 9 could rise to 11 or 12 by the time there have been 5000 bets.
To be safe you should expect and should plan for, a run of 12 losing bets (or more) in a row.
At 1 unit per bet that could equate to losing 12 units or £120 at £10/unit stakes.
The Risk/Reward figure should be as low as possible.
Ideally, you want high reward with very little risk but normally higher reward (higher ROI) comes with higher risk.
The Basketball Geek’ current Risk/Reward figure is a very low 0.3. It sits in a range of 0.25 to 4. This is one of the best figures we have seen.
Very little effort is required to follow these tips.
The Basketball Geek is a solid set-and-forget service.
With an average of 4 tips per day received between 8 and 10am in the morning it really couldn’t be much simpler.
The top bookmakers used for these tips are 1xBet, 22Bet, Bet365, Bwin and Coral.
All of these are “soft” bookmakers which means if you keep winning, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and you won’t be able to place your 10unit/£10 bet.
Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers may help. Using a betting exchange is a possible option providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.
Impact of long losing runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, with the average being 4 bets per day, you might go 3 days without a winning bet.
This is very unlikely to put a strain on your commitment. And the right Betting Bank will withstand these short-lived set-backs.
Profit is high, the cost is low, the risk is low and there’s very little effort involved. That’s pretty much perfect. An ideal candidate for my personal portfolio.
BUT, there is one small fly-in-the-ointment. In the grand scheme of things, 8 months is still a short space of time to truly assess a tipster. So it’s important not to get carried away by these results.
The Basketball Geek’s ROI and ROC figures are impressive.
Its and easy-to-follow level stakes, 4 tips a day service average – you place your bets in the early morning and the rest of the day is your own.
You can even get your first 15 days tips for only £1.99.
This is truly hard to resist trying it out. Considering that for less than £2 you could make £100 profit in a couple of weeks with £10 bets.
You can find out more about The Basketball Geek here