Soccerrafa

Professional Football Tipster since 30th June 2021.

Soccerrafa has produced a very good 13% ROI with 11 profitable months from 11 total months tipping – 100% success rate.

On average there’s 7 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £70 per day.

Skill Factor: VERY HIGH

Soccerrafa‘s statistical p-value is 0.0000 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s an extremely low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.

Losing Streaks: SHORT

The all-time tip Win Rate has been 46% over 11 months and 2165 tips which gives a low ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 13. In other words, you should have been prepared for 13 losing tips in a row over this time.

Based on a 46% Win Rate and the current tips rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

• Over the next month: At least one run of 8 losing tips.
• In the next 3 months: At least one run of 10 losing tips.
• During the next 6 months: At least one run of 11 losing tips.

Risk: LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Soccerrafa‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.18 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

Value for Money: VERY GOOD

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

Having an ROI of 13% means each 1% of ROI is costing £1.42 which which makes these tips good value.

However, a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get some money back if things don’t work out.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.£0.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 13% ROI from 7 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10.5 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£0.50 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.50 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £35 a day.

Betting Bank: 340pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Soccerrafa would be around 340 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.50/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £150.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 623 points profit.

2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 1204 points profit.

3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 1818 points profit.

Find out more about Soccerrafa here

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