Overview of service
Soccerrafa publishes football tips predominantly in the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market.
For a £19 per month subscription, you get an average of 6 or 7 tips per day at odds mostly between 2.00 (evens) and 2.5 (6/4).
The tips are posted late evening / early morning (UK time) and are typically 12 to 24 hours ahead of the match.
- 6 profitable months from 6
- Monthly profit has been increasing month-on-month
- ROI is relatively consistent
- Value-for-Money subscription
- Starting betting bank is relatively low
- Some effort required to manage the 6/7 tips per day
Return On Investment (ROI)
Soccerrafa completed a full 6 months of tipping in August’21 with almost 1500 tips and has produced 6 consecutive months of profit – each with more profit than the last.
The average ROI over the 6 months is a very good 12% but it has varied a lot ranging between 59.3% in the first month of tipping and 4.6% in Jul’21.
Over the most recent 3-months, the ROI has been even better at 18%
Return on Capital (ROC)
Return on Capital reflects how much your betting bank would have grown following this tipster.
Soccerrafa’s RoC has been extremely good.
If you had started with a 500 points bank and bet the same fixed amount on every Soccerrafa tip your betting bank could have grown by just over 4 times to 2,200 points
Adjusting your bet stakes based on the available bank at the start of each month the bank growth would have much more than 4 times.
The bank growth (dark red line) shows a strong (increasingly) upward trend.
Win Rate of tips has been improving month-on-month since the first month of service and along with it ROI and profits.
Value for Money
Each percentage of ROI has a monetary £/$/€ cost based on the subscription fee. (e.g. a tipster producing 10% ROI and charging £20 per month in subscription fees means that each 1% of ROI costs £2). This is a useful way to compare tipsters.
Soccerrafa has a monthly subscription fee right now of just £19 – the lowest Tipstrr subscription band – and has produced an overall ROI of 12.5%.
Each percent of ROI, therefore, costs around £1.50 (£19 divided by 12.5). Compared to an average of £2 this represents great value for money in these terms.
Staking & Betting Bank
Soccerrafa has so far advised a straightforward 10 point stake on every tip so there is no complexity here – which is good.
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The ELLR of Soccerrafa based on 1,400 tips and his 46% Win Rate is around 12. That is, you should anticipate a losing run of 12 tips/bets within the next 6 months.
The formula I normally use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:
Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
The betting Bank for Soccerrafa would be 300 points (=2.5 x 12 x 10) which, by comparison, is fairly large.
There are a large number of tips per day ( 6 – 7) advised at 10 points per tip. This would mean a daily outlay of 60 – 70 points staked on bets.
Betting 70 points a day means you betting roughly a fifth (20%) of your bank every day.
But what does “300 points” mean in cash terms?
Some simple maths will give us an answer to that question.
There are 7 tips per day advised at 10 points per tip which equates to betting 70 points a day on average.
At £1 per point (£10 per bet) you’d be placing £70 of bets each day.
Over a month that would be a total of roughly £2,100 of bets.
WIth Soccerrafs’s 12% ROI that equates to £252 profit.
Less the £19 subscription fee that means £233 goes straight into your betting bank.
Remember these figures are using the averages of this tipster. It’s never going to work out that way in real life. But it does give us a scale of whether we should be betting at £1 or £2 or £10 per point.
Betting at the level of £1 per point would produce good levels of profit.
With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to join on a good month or a bad month?
There is mathematics behind calculating volatility but you can get a feel for it from the performance graph.
The actual performance is the bank growth shown by the solid red thin line. The general trend of the bank growth is shown by the broad red line.
The closer the actual performance keeps to the trend line the less volatility there is and the more dependable the performance and profits are month to month.
Soccerrafa’s volatility appears reasonably low but there are only 6 months of data behind this analysis so, while it looks good, I’m reserving judgement on this for now.
Skill versus Chance
The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.
The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low provide very strong evidence against it being luck or chance.
Soccerrafa’s p-value based on the number of tips to date is currently 0.0001% which is excellent.
Statistically, therefore, it is very unlikely that this performance could be produced by luck or pure chance.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
With a 46% Win Rate on almost 1,500 tips the current estimated longest losing run is around 12.
With an average of 6 – 7 tips per day, it would take just a couple of days before you know you’ve hit that ELLR of 12.
This suggests you should review your stake amounts on a daily basis to react to what might prove to be that longest losing run.
By adjusting your stakes based on the size of the available betting bank you can reduce stakes during a losing run – this will limit your losses. And you can increase stakes as your bank increases – this will increase your profits.
An ELLR of 12 combined with 10 points per tip equates to a loss of 120 points if that ELLR was to happen – that would be £1,20 at £1 per point.
Low volatility is epitomised in the Ideal Tipster Performance Profile shown on the left – the profits are a straight line and they follow the trend line exactly – every month you can depend on making exactly the same amount of profit.
Higher reward means more profit which means instead of the bank going up by 200 points a month, it goes up by 300 or 500 points per month – the red line becomes more vertical.
Soccerrafa’s current ROI Risk/Reward figure is 1.49 indicating that this is a low risk and high reward opportunity.
Soccerrafa tips are published in the middle of the night UK time – this could present a difficultly if the odds could change quickly and you can’t get to them before waking up in the morning.
On the positive side, however, the tips are published 12 to 24 hours ahead of the match – so this might give you sufficient time to be able to get bets on to match or even beat the advised odds.
Irrespective, the six to seven tips per day will probably keep you busy for a while on your device finding best odds and placing bets.
Slightly early days to be fully confident about Soccerrafa but indications are this could be a very profitable tipster to follow.
This technical analysis has covered 6 months and over 1,400 tips of Soccerrafa’s results from Jun’20 to the end of Nov’21.
A tipping service has to have a minimum of 6 months results and 500 tips for a meaningful technical analysis.
Soccerrafa only just meets that 6 months threshold and I’d really prefer a few more months of results to confirm the success of this tipster.
Soccerrafa is a value-for-money tipping service that has produced 6 from 6 consecutive profitable months and could produce acceptable returns even at £5 per bet.
What might cause difficulty for the subscriber is responding to tips published late in the evening UK time and being able to get bets on at the advised odds.
The starting betting bank could be as low as £150 if you just wanted to test out this service for a month at £19.
If you wanted to subscribe and follow Soccerrafa’s tips the recommendations would be:
- set aside a 300 point betting bank – begin with £150 and place £5 bets
- revise your point stake levels on a daily basis based on around 3% of the available betting bank at the start of each day
- be prepared for a losing streak of 12 losing bets over the next 6 months
- use multiple bookmakers and rotate your usage of them on a daily basis
You can find out more about Soccerrafa here
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