SmallFieldPunting caught my eye back in Dec’21 and prompted me to write the post 70% ROI? Really?
Several months on and now with over 500 tips under his belt here’s an update on this intriguing tipster.
SmallFieldPunting
Overview:
Professional Horse racing Tipster since 30th June 2021.
SmallFieldPunting has produced an incredible 45% ROI with 8 profitable months from 9 total months tipping – a 89% success rate.
On average there are 2 tips per day typically advised at an average 1 points which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £2 per day.
Skill Factor: AVERAGE
SmallFieldPunting‘s statistical p-value is 0.0044 ( to 4 decimal places ). This indicates there’s a 0% probability these results could be achieved by pure chance. This figure is low. There is good evidence these results are being achieved by skill.
Losing Streaks: VERY LONG
The all-time tip Win Rate has been 14% over 9 months and 526 tips which gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 42 – in those 526 tips you should have been prepared for 42 losing tips in a row.
Based on this you should anticipate encountering the following longest losing runs:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 28 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 36 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 39 losing tips.
Risk: LOW
SmallFieldPunting‘s performance is stable which means risk is low. The coefficient of variation figure is 1.15 which reflects how much volatility, or risk, is assumed in comparison to the amount of return expected from investments. The lower the ratio of the standard deviation to mean return, the better risk-return trade-off.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
The subscription cost is £19 per month so with an ROI of 45% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.42 which is great value.
Staking Levels: REASONABLE
£0.70 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on this 45% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 points you’d need to be betting at £0.70 per point to cover the £19 subscription cost.
£4.40 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £4.40 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £10 a day.
Expectancy
1 MONTH: If you’d followed SmallFieldPunting for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 89% chance you’d make a profit. You were 8 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 84 points profit versus an average loss of -79 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 88% chance you’d make a profit. You were 7 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 158 points profit versus an average loss of -67 points.
3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 213 points profit.
| Consecutive Periods | Total Periods | Made Profit | Made Loss | %Profitable | Avg.Period Profit | Avg.Period Loss | Expectancy | Profit Factor |
| any 1 month | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 84 | -79 | 65 | 1 |
| any 2 months | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 158 | -67 | 129 | 2 |
| any 3 months | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 213 | 0 | 213 | 213 |
| any 4 months | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 300 | 0 | 300 | 300 |
| any 5 months | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 376 | 0 | 376 | 376 |
| any 6 months | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 451 | 0 | 451 | 451 |
You can find out more about SmallFieldPunting here
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