SMALLFIELDPUNTING : 42% ROI finding value in smaller fields

OVERVIEW :

SMALLFIELDPUNTING has been providing Horse racing tips since July 2021 producing an incredible 42% ROI with 11 profitable months from 14 total months tipping ( 79% profitable ).

On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £2 per day.

Performance so far over different time periods suggest there’s a 100% expectation of making a profit with SMALLFIELDPUNTING over every consecutive 3 month period.

SMALLFIELDPUNTING

ROI:
 42%
Profit Mths:
 11 / 14
Expectancy:
 3mth – 100%
Skill:
 HIGH
ELLR:
 26
Risk:
 LOW
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 LOW
Betting Bank:
 70 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : HIGH

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.

SMALLFIELDPUNTING’s p-value is 0.0005 (to 4 dec.places ).

This indicates its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : LONG

How long will losing streaks be?

The tip Win Rate has been 15% over 944 tips. This gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 26 – in those 944 tips you should have been prepared for 43 losing tips in a row.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 28 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 35 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 39 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

SMALLFIELDPUNTING‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.15 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

The monthly subscription cost is £19 which is low. SMALLFIELDPUNTING’s overall ROI of 42% means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.45 which is great value.

Generally, subscriptions costs are typically less per month if you take a 3-month or even 6-month subscription and you can always cancel and get a refund should things not go the way you hoped.

BETTING STAKES : LOW

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

The following figures are based on current performance and are provided only to give a sense of scale regarding betting stakes.

To cover subscription costs : £0.80 per point
Based on this 42% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 points you’d need to be betting at £0.80 per point to cover the £19 subscription cost.

To clear £100 profit : £4.80 per point
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £4.80 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £10 a day.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 80pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This is sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for SMALLFIELDPUNTING would be around 80 points.

So, if you were betting at £4.80/pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £350.

EXPECTANCY : GOOD

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed SMALLFIELDPUNTING for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 79% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 880 points profit versus an average loss of -350 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. You were 12 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1460 points profit versus an average loss of -670 points.

3 MONTH: Every consecutive 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months you’d have made an average of 1980 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 14 11 3 79% 880 -350 616 2
any 2 months 13 12 1 92% 1460 -670 1296 2
any 3 months 12 12 0 100% 1980 0 1980 1980
any 4 months 11 11 0 100% 2530 0 2530 2530
any 5 months 10 10 0 100% 3090 0 3090 3090
any 6 months 9 9 0 100% 3520 0 3520 3520

Find out more about SMALLFIELDPUNTING here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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