Shrewd Tips is a horse racing tipster with over 1200 tips and 6 winning months from 7 months operation with an overall ROI of over 18%.
An average of 6 tips per day usually sent in the morning between 8a.m. and 12p.m.
Staking approach is a level-stakes of 10 units. Daily bet stakes, therefore, averages 60 units.
Predominantly winner tips but there are some each-ways.
Average odds are around 8 (7/1) and mostly range between 4 (3/1) and 12 (11/1).
PROs
- High ROI
- 3-digit monthly profits
- Value for Money
- Easy to follow
CONs
- High ELLR
- Relatively large Betting Bank
Overview of service
Shrewd Tips has been on my radar for a while now and this article would have been written earlier but then COVID-19 hit mid-March and racing in the UK racing was suspended.
This left Shrewd Tips with a half-completed and his first losing month in March so I decided to hold off on the assessment until racing returned and he had another month’s results under his belt.
Shrewd Tips is a relative newcomer to Tipstrr who has hit the ground running since launching his service in October.
Despite the curtailed racing calendar in March giving him his first losing month that has been his only downward dip after five straight months of sustained profit.
A straightforward level-stakes staking plan and a regular mid-morning publication window keeps this service as simple as you could want it to be.
PROFIT
Return On Investment
Even with the April to May break in tips the ROI is impressive. Its not possible to calculate a full 12-month ROI as Shrewd Tips has not been in operation for that long but the overall ROI and the previous 6 and 3-month periods suggests sustained and steady(ish) results.
| ROI 18% |
12mth n/a |
6mth 18% |
3mth 27% |
Return on Capital
Following this tipster with a recommended Betting Bank of 900 units the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is over 200%.
In other words, your original 900 units would have increased by 200% (two times) and grown to 2,700 units.
Consistency
Now in Jun’20 there have been 6 winning months from 7 months of tips including the COVID-19 impacted half-month of March.
Its impossible to know whether those early loses in March would have been recovered later. And I’m loath to discount it entirely.
Monthly variability month-to-month may be an issue but you can’t deny the triple-digit profits being posted every month. So it’s with the benefit of the doubt I’m considering Shrewd Tips consistency to be good – for now.
COST
Value for Money
A months subscription to Shrewd tips currently costs £19. With an ROI of 18% that means you are buying 1% of ROI for just about £1.05.
There are better Value-for-Money tipsters but this is very reasonable considering the high ROI.
There are discounted 3-, 6- and 12-month subscriptions available which would reduce the equivalent monthly cost.
Betting Bank
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on their Win Rate / Strike Rate.
Shrewd Tips’ Win Rate of 18% suggests a Betting bank in the region of 900 units – assuming average risk.
While not the biggest figure we’ve seen it’s unlikely you could follow these tips at more than £1 per unit. That is unless you had deep pockets or operated with a theoretical betting bank rather than a physical hard-cash betting bank.
Staking
Shrewd Tips operates a straightforward level-stakes staking plan so every tip is a 10 point bet.
An average of 6 tips a day means a typical outlay of 60 units on an average day.
This is a reasonable £60 of bets per day if you follow the tips at £1 per unit. But it could rise to £100 some days.
RISK
Volatility
It’s a little too early to definitively assess the volatility of Shrewd Tips but so far:
excluding the Mar’20 losing partial month all 6 months produced 3-figure profits ranging from 176 units to 768 units. (check Jun’20s figs at end-of-june)
there has also been a large variance in the monthly ROI figures from 7.8% to 43%.
Skill versus Chance
There is moderate to strong evidence that the ROI being produced by Shrewd Tips is not due to chance.
The statistical p-value used to give us this indicator is a little high but has been moving in a positive direction since Shrewd Tips started and is currently at its lowest i.e. best value.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The ELLR for a Win Rate of 18% is 36. In other words, you could expect, and should plan for, a run of 36 losing bets (or more) in a row.
At 10 units per bet that could equate to losing 360 units or £360 at £1/unit stakes.
Risk/Reward
Ideally, you want high reward with very little risk but normally higher reward (higher ROI) comes with higher risk.
The Risk/Reward figure should be as low as possible.
Shrewd Tips’ figure of 2.17 is quite high and sits in a range of 0.25 to 4 and is higher than the average of 1.69.
EFFORT
Time commitment
Some racing tipsters stick to one tip a day but with an average of 6 tips a day Shrewd Tips should be easy enough to fit into a busy schedule.
The tips don’t all come at once. They do come fairly well bunched together but they can spread across a period of 1 maybe 2 hours in the morning typically somewhere between 8:00am and 10:00am.
Boomakers Used
The top three bookmakers used in Shrewd Tips’ tips have been Skybet, Betfair and William Hill.
All three of these are “soft” bookmakers which means if you keep winning, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and you won’t be able to place your 10unit/£10 bet.
Interesting to note that the tips with Skybet have an impressive +32% ROI but the tips with William Hill show an overall loss of -18% ROI.
Impact of long losing runs
The Win Rate of 18% means you’re going to have to be prepared for a streak of 36 (or more) losing bets.
Looking at it more broadly, with the average being 4 bets per day, you might go 9 days without a winning bet.
CONCLUSION
What’s outstanding about Shrewd tips are the impressive profit figures for both ROI and ROC.
Its and easy-to-follow level stakes, 6 tips a day service average – you place your bets in the morning and the rest of the day is your own.
What’s not so good is the variance and the risk and the potential for long disheartening losing runs.
Following Shrewd tips will be a test of character. Thirty-six losing bets in a row would take some handling.
The fairly large betting bank required to follow these tips will also be a bit daunting for many.
In my opinion, if you have fairly deep pockets and are comfortable with the risk then Shrewd Tips may be a great option for you. The profits have been high but so too has the risk. And if you’re interested you could see how it goes with a 7 day trial for just £1.
But it’s just for those reasons it’s not making it into my personal portfolio – ELLR, betting-bank and risk are all outside my comfort zone.
You can find out more about Shrewd Tips here