Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- 9 full months of operation
- 6 winning months from 9 (at advised and level stakes)
- Very good ROI
- Medium-risk / Medium-reward
- Good skill indicator
- Short losing runs
- Less than 500 tips
- Not a set-and-forget service
Summary: An ROI over 20% sustained over 3, 6 and 12-month time periods. A reasonable Win Rate and relatively short losing runs. Using knowledge of Scottish football to beat the bookies. Tips are posted up early to get some value and the majority of the selections tend to go off at shorter odds.
- all football tips
- combination of singles and doubles
- mostly 1X2 market but also Asian Handicap and Over/Unders
- 10 -15 tips per week on average
- average 95 points profit per month
- most tips published 3 days ahead of the match
- important to place bets asap to lock in the value
Sports & Markets
Scotch-doubles is dedicated to football tips and as the name suggests it is highly focussed on Scottish footall. All leagues are included from the Scottish Premiership to League Two.
Two-thirds of the tips are singles and one third are accumulators. The general approach appears to be selecting a small number of matches and results and tipping them both as single bets and also combining them into doubles.
The main betting markets are 1X2, Asian Handicap (AH) and Over/Unders but Double Chance and Both Teams To Score also feature.
Tipping & Betting Profile
So far scotch-doubles has been publishing an average of around 12 tips per week. And with the focus being on Scottish football leagues, they naturally target weekend matches.
The staking approach is effectively level-stakes. Apart from a few outliers, all tips, both singles and doubles, have been advised at 10 points.
Tips have been published throughout the 24 hours of the day.
Half of the tips have been posted during the UK morning and early-afternoon (8am to 4pm). The other half between late-afternoon to midnight (4pm and 12am). A small number have been posted outside these times.
Scotch-doubles states that “the majority of the selections tend to go off at shorter odds” .
It is therefore important to get bets on as soon as possible before the “value” that he has identified disappears.
It is interesting to note that the late-afternoon/evening tips have been more profitable and produced a better ROI than the other time periods.
Scotch-doubles has been in operation since Apr’19 – just over 9 months at the time of writing. This is good. It meets my criteria of a minimum of 6 months of results but hasn’t yet hit the minimum 500 bet mark yet – its close though.
Six of these nine months have been profitable. Two of the losing months were small loses but one, Oct’19, posted a significant loss of -127 points.
Return On Investment (ROI)
Scotch-doubles’s overall ROI has kept consistent over time.
ROI over the most recent 3 months has been 17.3%. Over the recent 6-months 16.6%. And the all-time 9-months ROI has been 20%.
Consistency is very important in my book so these are good figures.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
The win rate is currently 47% which is slightly low for a football tipster. Scotch-doubles average odds are 3 which is well above the 2.13 average odds needed to break-even.
A win rate of 47% combined with average odds of 3 sets the ELLR at 10.
Statistically then you could expect to suffer a run of around 10 losing bets in a row.
The implication here is that you need a relatively small betting bank to follow Scotch-doubles.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 10 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 20 losing bets (2 x 10) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be somewhere between two to three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
Scotch-doubles’s average advised stake is 10 points so this would suggest a betting bank of 200 to 300 points to cover the worst-case scenario.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise rather than just being due to chance.
Scotch-doubles’s p-value is a good 0.24%. At less than 1% this indicates strong, if not very strong, evidence that the ROI being produced in not due to chance but reflects the skill/expertise of the tipster.
The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.
Scotch-doubles’s Risk/Reward figure is 0.64 indicating a combination of medium risk and medium reward.
Value for Money (VfM)
Scotch-doubles is currently a free tipster. You can follow him and get all the tips for zero cost.
There can be no better Value for Money than free.
What’s not to like? All the technical indicators are positive.
A very good ROI. Short losing runs. A reasonable Risk/Reward profile. And to top it all no subscription costs to eat into your profits.
Tipstrr placed Scotch-doubles as their best football tipster of 2019. You can read about it in our Tipstrr Correspondent’s post Tipstrr’s Football tipster of the year 2019.
Tipsters with far less impressive credentials than Scotch Doubles charge appreciable amounts for their services, so It’s refreshing to see a tipster who would prefer to allow people to test his proven service for an extended period before asking them for a financial commitment.
Find out more about Scotch-doubles.