PREMIER GREYHOUND TIPS : 13% ROI on the greyhounds

Premier Greyhound Tips’s tips have produced a very good 13% ROI over 106 total months of tips. He has had 77 profitable months out of 106 which is 73% success rate.

On average there’s 1 tip per day typically advised at 3 pt. which means, at £10 per point, you’d be betting around £30 per day.

Premier Greyhound Tips

ROI:
13%
PM:
77 / 106
Skill:
HIGH
ELLR:
26
Risk:
LOW
VfM:
GOOD
Stks:
REASONABLE

Skill Factor: HIGH

Premier Greyhound Tips‘s statistical p-value is 0.0001 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s an extremely low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance..

Losing Streaks: LONG

Over 106 months there have been 3798 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 27%. This gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 26. In other words you should have been prepared for 26 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.

With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 11 losing tips.
  • Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 14 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 17 losing tips.

Risk: LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Premier Greyhound Tips’s coefficient of variation figure is 1.44 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

Value for Money: GOOD

At £27 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.

With an ROI of 13% this means each 1% of ROI costs £2.00 which represents around average value.

However, taking out a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get a refund if things don’t work out.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.

£2.60 per point to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 13% ROI from 1 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 3 pt. you’d need to be betting at £2.60 per point just to cover the £27 subscription cost.

£12.00 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £12.00 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £35 a day.

Betting Bank: 171pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Premier Greyhound Tips would be around 171 points.

So, if you were betting at £12.00/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £2050.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Premier Greyhound Tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 72% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 244 points profit versus an average loss of -192 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 77% chance you’d make a profit. You were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 381 points profit versus an average loss of -180 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 84% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 488 points profit versus an average loss of -176 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 97 70 27 72% 244 -192 122 1
any 2 months 96 74 22 77% 381 -180 252 2
any 3 months 95 80 15 84% 488 -176 383 2
any 4 months 94 81 13 86% 625 -162 516 3
any 5 months 93 86 7 92% 722 -173 654 4
any 6 months 92 88 4 96% 836 -171 792 4

Find out more about Premier Greyhound Tips here

 

 

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