OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS : 40% ROI Racing Tips

OVERVIEW :

OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS has been providing Horse racing tips since May 2021 with 13 profitable months from those 16 total months tipping – that’s 81% success rate.

The tips have produced an incredible 44% ROI.

On average there’s 4 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £4 per day.

Performance so far over different time periods suggest there’s a 100% expectation of making a profit with OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS over every consecutive 5 month period.

OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS

ROI:
 44%
Profit Mths:
 13 / 16
Expectancy:
 5mth – 100%
Skill:
 HIGH
ELLR:
 22
Risk:
 MEDIUM
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 LOW
Betting Bank:
 60 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : HIGH

OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS‘s statistical p-value is 0.0001 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s an extremely low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : LONG

How long will losing streaks be?

The all-time tip Win Rate over 1363 tips has been 19%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:

  • In the next month: At least one run of 21 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 26 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 31 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.69 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

The monthly subscription cost is £19 which is low. OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS’s overall ROI of 44% means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.44 which is great value.

Generally, subscriptions costs are typically less per month if you take a 3-month or even 6-month subscription and you can always cancel and get a refund should things not go the way you hoped.

BETTING STAKES : LOW

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.

To cover subscription costs £0.40 per point
Doing the calculations based on 44% ROI from 4 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.40 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£2.30 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £2.30 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £15 a day.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 60pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS would be 60 points.

So, if you were betting at £2.30/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £150.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 81% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1790 points profit versus an average loss of -530 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 80% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 12 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 3490 points profit versus an average loss of -280 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 86% chance you’d make a profit. You were 6 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 18 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 4910 points profit versus an average loss of -270 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 16 13 3 81% 1790 -530 1355 3
any 2 months 15 12 3 80% 3490 -280 2736 12
any 3 months 14 12 2 86% 4910 -270 4170 18
any 4 months 13 12 1 92% 6110 -10 5639 611
any 5 months 12 12 0 100% 7150 0 7150 7150
any 6 months 11 11 0 100% 8670 0 8670 8670

Find out more about OUTSIDERSPEEDPICKS here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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