ON THE MONEY TIPS : 40% ROI and low staking levels

OVERVIEW :

On-The-Money-Tips has been providing Horse racing tips since August 2020 delivering an incredible 43% ROI over 26 total months of tips. He has had 18 profitable months out of those 26 which is 69% success rate.

On average there’s 3 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £30 per day.

Performance so far over different time periods suggest there’s a 100% expectation of making a profit with On-The-Money-Tips over every consecutive 5 month period.

On-The-Money-Tips

ROI:
 43%
Profit Mths:
 18 / 26
Expectancy:
 5mth – 100%
Skill:
 VERY HIGH
ELLR:
 23
Risk:
 LOW
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 LOW
Betting Bank:
 580 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

On-The-Money-Tips’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 0% probability these results are down to luck.

This indicates that it is extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : LONG

How long will losing streaks be?

The all-time tip Win Rate over 1926 tips has been 17%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:

  • In the next month: At least one run of 24 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 30 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 34 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.

On-The-Money-Tips‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.14 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

The monthly subscription cost is £19 which is low. On-The-Money-Tips’s overall ROI of 43% means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.44 which is great value.

Generally, subscriptions costs are typically less per month if you take a 3-month or even 6-month subscription and you can always cancel and get a refund should things not go the way you hoped.

BETTING STAKES : LOW

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

Knowing the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what ROI is going to be. It might even be negative – a losing month.

But doing the calculation can provide an indication of the scale of betting levels – will it be something like £10 a day or more like £100 a day.

To cover subscription costs £0.10 per point
Based on the 43% ROI from 3 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £19 monthly subscription cost.

£0.40 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make around £100 clear profit a month the staking levels would need to be in the region of £0.40 per point. At this level you’d be betting about £15 a day.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 580pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This is sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for On-The-Money-Tips would be around 580 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.40/pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £200.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed On-The-Money-Tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 69% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1090 points profit versus an average loss of -570 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 84% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1640 points profit versus an average loss of -1080 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 88% chance you’d make a profit. You were 7 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 5 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 2170 points profit versus an average loss of -400 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 26 18 8 69% 1090 -570 579 1
any 2 months 25 21 4 84% 1640 -1080 1204 1
any 3 months 24 21 3 88% 2170 -400 1848 5
any 4 months 23 21 2 91% 2680 -150 2433 17
any 5 months 22 22 0 100% 3020 0 3020 3020
any 6 months 21 21 0 100% 3680 0 3680 3680

Find out more about On-The-Money-Tips here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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