on-target-tips has been providing Horse racing tips since October 2019 producing an excellent 23% ROI with 34 profitable months from 40 total months tipping ( 85% profitable ).
On average there’s 5 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £50 per day.
Performance to date over different time periods suggest there’s a 100% likelihood of making a profit with on-target-tips during any consecutive 4 month period.
TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH
The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.
on-target-tips’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 dec.places ).
This indicates its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.
LOSING STREAKS : VERY LONG
How long will losing streaks be?
The all-time tip Win Rate over 4090 tips has been 14%.
You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:
- In the next month: At least one run of 33 losing tips.
- In the next 3 months: At least one run of 41 losing tips.
- During the next 6 months: At least one run of 46 losing tips.
TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.
on-target-tips‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.04 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.
VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD
Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?
on-target-tips’s overall ROI is 23%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £19. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.83 which is great value.
Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.
BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE
How much am I likely to be betting every day?
If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.
The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.
The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.
To cover subscription costs £0.10 per point
Doing the calculations based on 23% ROI from 5 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.
£0.40 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.40 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £20 a day.
BETTING BANK SIZE : 860pts
How much money do I need to start with?
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will be sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The first month betting bank size for on-target-tips would be 860 points.
So, if you were betting at £0.40/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would be around £300.
EXPECTANCY : AVERAGE
How long before I can expect to make profit?
1 MONTH: If you’d followed on-target-tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 85% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 6 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 460 points profit versus an average loss of -290 points.
2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 90% chance you’d make a profit. You were 9 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 810 points profit versus an average loss of -280 points.
3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 95% chance you’d make a profit. You were 18 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 5 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1110 points profit versus an average loss of -240 points.
|Consecutive Periods||Total||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Profit||Avg.Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||40||34||6||85%||460||-290||347||1|
|any 2 months||39||35||4||90%||810||-280||698||2|
|any 3 months||38||36||2||95%||1110||-240||1038||4|
|any 4 months||37||37||0||100%||1370||0||1370||1370|
|any 5 months||36||36||0||100%||1720||0||1720||1720|
|any 6 months||35||35||0||100%||2080||0||2080||2080|
Find out more about on-target-tips here
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