A dedicated basketball tipster unafraid of tipping at high odds and making a lot of profit.
A headline ROI of just over 19% and a subscription cost of £29/month.
Started in Jul’19 and has 12 winning months from 14 months of running his service.
An average losing month has been -26 pts – an average winning month +37 points.
PROs
- Very good ROI
- Short losing runs
- Small betting bank required
- 1 – 2 tips per day
CONs
- Tips published across full 24 hour day
Overview of service
Mrjordan is exclusively basketball tips. The leagues covered are worldwide although USA and Spain are where he has seen the best success.
There are typically 1 or 2 tips each day and mostly in the Over/Under market.
The tips are published right across the 24-hours and can range anywhere from a couple of hours before the match to three or more days ahead.
Odds are mostly in the 1.70 to 2.39 range where the ROI has been around 15%. But Mrjordan is clearly not afraid to back outsiders. One in every 5 (20%) of the tips have been at odds of 4.00 or above and these have produced an astounding ROI of almost 40%.
Average odds are around 3.50. Average stakes are 5 point/unit per tip. The Win Rate is currently sitting at 54%. And the ROI is 19.3%
PROFIT
Return On Investment
Mrjordan has been publishing tips for 14 months now between Jul’19 and Aug’20. During that time he has had 12 profitable months and 2 losing months.
ROI figures for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month periods suggest a consistency that may well be sustained longer-term. Particularly so if this tipster is finding value bets.
| ROI 19.3% |
12 mths 18% |
6 mths 28% |
3 mth 21% |
Return on Capital
Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 100 units, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is an impressive 500%.
In other words, your original bank of 100 units would have grown to almost 500 units in those 14 months.
In real money terms starting with £100 and setting your bet stakes for the next calendar month at 4% of your existing bank then your £100 would have become £1,800. That’s a rather more impressive real-world ROC figure.
Consistency
At the end of Aug’20 there have been 12 profitable months from 14 months of tips – two separate losing months.
COVID-19 devastated sports events during Spring 2020 but this didn’t stop Mrjordan posting some of his best ROI figures averaging almost 50% ROI over the 4 months Feb’20 to May’20
Over the 14 months, the average ROI has been almost 30% ranging from -16% (in Jul’20) to an impressive 70% (in Apr’20) although that was on the back of only 7 tips that month so should be viewed as abnormal.
COST
Value for Money
A month’s subscription to Mrjordan currently costs only £29.
That means a single 1% of ROI costs a very reasonable £1.50. This is below a typical average of about £2 for Tipstrr tipster services.
Betting Bank
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
From a risk-management aspect, your Betting Bank should have enough in it to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting. (This is where the 2.5 comes to from in the formula below)
The formula I use is Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
Mrjordan’s Win Rate – how often tips win – is 54% based on his total of 500 tips so far.
Looking forward to the next 500 tips the ELLR for a Win rate of 54% for 1000 tips is around 9 i.e. you should anticipate a losing run of 9 losing bets (or possibly more – remember real-life is different to statistics).
The average bet stake is 4.36 points or units.
This would, therefore, suggest a start-up Betting Bank in the region of 100 units (2.5*9*4.36) – assuming average risk.
Staking
Advised stakes on the Mrjordan tips range from 1 to 10 points but most of them (75%) are 5 points/units.
With Mrjordan only posting 1 or 2 tips each day that means the most you’d likely be betting would be 5 to 10 points each day.
If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £5 – £10 of bets at the beginning using a starting Betting Bank of £100.
You should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.
For Aug’20 – the final month of the 14-months of service – your stake would have risen from that £5 per day on Jul’19 to £45 per day.
RISK
Volatility
The Coefficient of Variance gauges the volatility or variance of a tipster’s performance.
Based on this Mrjordan’s performance is very stable and is in the top 10% of all tipsters I track.
The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are.
With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes joining a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month.
You can see Mrjordan’s stability reflected in the profit graph which has deviated little from the upward growth trendline over the period.
Skill versus Chance
The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.
The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% (lower is better).
Mrjordan’s p-value is currently 0.25%, which indicates there is good evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The bet Win Rate of 54% indicates an ELLR of around 9 or 10. In other words, you should expect and plan for 9 (or more) losing bets in a row.
Most of Mrjordan’s tips are typically advised at 5 unit/point which means a losing streak of 9 bets could equate to losing 45 units (£45 at £1/unit stakes or £90 at £2/unit stakes).
If you started with a Betting Bank of 100 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with at least 10 units to start over (100 minus 2 x 45).
If the 54% Win Rate is maintained and the rate of tips per day stays the same the ELLR is not likely to change much over the next couple of years.
Risk/Reward
The Risk/Reward figure is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. The value should be as low as possible.
Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) – with very little risk (low volatility). However, higher reward typically comes with higher risk.
Mrjordan’s current Risk/Reward figure is an acceptable 1.28 and on the better side of average of all Tipstrr tipsters I monitor.
EFFORT
Time Commitment
This is not a set-and-forget tipster service. You’re going to have to keep alert to the tips as they appear throughout the day.
But with only 1 or 2 tips to bet each day, you’ll not be spending much time on the bookie’s website which is a good thing.
You’ll want to get your bets on as quickly as possible to get the best odds and that will depend on your personal circumstances and other commitments.
Bookmakers Used
The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Bet365, Pinnacle, Unibet and 10bet. Over 75% of the tips have been with these bookies. 55% have been with Bet365 and Pinnacle alone.
Bet365 is “soft” bookmaker which means if you keep winning at them, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and your bets will be limited to pennies.
Pinnacle, on the other hand, does not penalize winners so it’s a real positive to see them as one of the top bookmakers used.
Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers and rotating the bookmakers used can help. Using a Betting Exchange or a Bet Broker are possible options providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.
Impact Of Long Losing Runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 1.5 per day, and the ELLR is 9 it will take less than a week before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.
Recovery should be quick though and adjusting the £-per-point figure downwards when you have losses is less of a consideration.
CONCLUSION
If you’re looking for consistent profits with very little effort and have the flexibility to place bets any time during the day then Mrjordan may just be the tipster for you.
At 19% it’s a high ROI for a tipster outside of horse racing and the current £29/month subscription while not the lowest still makes Mrjordan good value for money.
The low ELLR and a low variance figure mean there should be no big highs and lows to deal with.
Find out more about Mrjordan here