Longshooter is a horse racing tipster who first appeared on Tipstrr in Sep’18 but for one month only.
After nine months of silence, he started up again and since Jul’19 has produced 10 consecutive profitable months to Jun’20.
For this technical analysis, the isolated Sep’18 month is being treated as an anomaly and is being excluded from all calculations.
There have been over 800 tips and 10 out of 10 winning months which has produced over 20% ROI.
A monthly subscription costs £19 and bet stakes are a very straightforward 10 units/points per tip.
IMPORTANT: This report reveals insights that could improve the ROI to 29%.
PROs
- Very good ROI
- 10 consecutive profitable months
- Value for money service
- Set and forget betting
- Little effort involved
CONs
- Relatively large Betting Bank required
Overview of service
Following this service is very straightforward and takes very little effort.
You’ll receive two to three tips in the evening before the racing which should allow you to pick up some very good prices.
Most tips (85%) are each-way and average odds are around 7.00 (6/1) but range from 1.70 to over 20.00.
PROFIT
Return On Investment
Longshooter has been publishing tips for 10 months now between Jul’19 and Jun’20.
The overall ROI and the ROI for the previous 6- and 3-month tipping periods have produced impressively consistent results.
| ROI 23% |
12mth 23% |
6mth 23% |
3mth 33% |
Return on Capital
Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 800 units, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is an impressive 440%.
In other words, your original bank of 800 units would have grown to over 4300 units in those 10 months.
Consistency
At Jun’20 there have been 10 winning months from 10 months of tips – zero losing months – a 100% record.
Winning months made between 45 and an incredible 830 units profit – an average month made over 350 units of profit.
You could have joined this service at the beginning of any month and come out the end with the subscription cost covered extra cash in your pocket.
COST
Value for Money
A month’s subscription to Longshooter currently costs only £19.
That means a single 1% of ROI costs a mere 83p (£0.83) – one of the most inexpensive services we’ve seen.
Betting Bank
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
Longshooter’s Win Rate – how often tips win – is 33%.
Each to-win tip is advised at 10 points whereas every each-way tip is advised at 10 points each way – a total of 20 points.
With 85% of the tips being each-way, the average stake size works out at 18.5 points.
This would suggest a start-up Betting Bank in the region of 800 units (2.5*17*18.5) – assuming average risk.
There are some considerations discussed later on that could revise this relatively high figure downwards to a more tolerable level.
Staking
Advised stakes on the Longshooter tips are a straightforward 10 units. That would be either a 10 point Win or a 10 point each-way bet.
An average of 3 tips a day would mean a typical outlay of 50 units on an average day assuming 2 each-way bets and 1 win bet.
If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £50 using a Betting Bank of £800. At £5 per point betting the daily stakes would total around £250 on a Betting Bank of £4,000.
RISK
Volatility
The Coefficient of Variance figure which gauges volatility is well below average which is good. You can see this reflected in the profit graph which has deviated very little from the straight line during the period.
Skill versus Chance
There is strong evidence that the ROI being produced by Longshooter is not due to chance.
The best p-value figures are less than 0.01% (lower is better) but typically these are for tipsters tipping at much shorter odds of around 2.00 (evens).
Longshooter’s p-value of 0.6%, while on the high side, still looks very good considering he’s tipping at much longer odds – average odds of 7 (6/1) and sometimes as long as 21 (20/1) or more.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The bet Win Rate (the horse places) is 33% which indicates an ELLR of 17. You should expect and plan for 17 (or more) losing bets in a row.
That losing streak could equate to losing 315 units – £315 at £1/unit stakes or around £1500 at £5/unit stakes.
If you started with a Betting Bank of 800 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but possible) you would still be left with 170 units to start over (800 minus 2 times 315).
If the Win Rate is maintained the ELLR could rise to 19 or 20 within the next 12 months if tips continue at the rate or 2 – 3 per day.
Risk/Reward
The Risk/Reward figure is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. The value should be as low as possible.
Ideally, you want high reward with very little risk. However, higher reward (higher ROI) typically comes with higher risk.
Longshooter’s current Risk/Reward figure is a low 0.6. This is good when you consider the odds being used and is well below an average of 1.5.
EFFORT
Time Commitment
There is very little involved in following these tips.
Tips are sent out between 7 pm and 11 pm the evening before the races. This means you should get good odds and have your bets done before going to bed.
Boomakers Used
The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Skybet, Betfair, Coral, Unibet, and William Hill.
These are “soft” bookmakers which means if you keep winning at them, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and your bets will be limited to pennies.
Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers and rotating the bookmakers used may help. Using a Betting Exchange or a Bet Broker are possible options providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.
Impact Of Long Losing Runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 3 per day, and the ELLR is 17 or 18 then you might go 6 days without a winning bet.
With the right Betting Bank and adjusting the £-per-point figure up or down on a regular basis, based on the size of your bank, it should be easy enough to withstand these setbacks both financially and emotionally.
CONCLUSION
There’s everything to like here.
ROI is very good; the current £19/month subscription cost is in the lowest band; the risk is acceptable, and there’s very little effort involved.
There are two concerns though which we need to address – the size of Betting Bank and the 100% record of month-after-month of profit.
100% Record Can’t Last
You may worry that he just can’t keep up that 100% record of 10 consecutive months of profit. And you’re right – he won’t. But, somehow you might think as soon as you start following him that’s when he’s going to have his first losing month.
So do you not sign up? Do you wait for him to have a losing month and then sign up? But if he’s had a losing month then maybe he could have another losing month – couldn’t he?
Procrastination is the thief of time is an old proverbial saying, mid 18th century, meaning that someone who continually puts things off ultimately achieves little.
If you didn’t want to spend the £19 for a month’s tips Longshooter currently has a Get your first 7 days for just £1 offer and you could follow the tips using stakes you are comfortable with.
See the Opportunities section coming up that works some very interesting numbers around this.
Adjust the size of Betting Bank
The simple solution to reduce the cost of your Betting Bank to something affordable is to reduce your stakes per point.
Rather than betting at £1/pt which would mean an £800 bank limit your stakes to £0.25 per point which would mean a more affordable £200 betting bank.
Reduced stakes means reduced profits but it gets you on the ladder.
As profits start to build your bank up you can increase your stakes from the initial low levels.
Of course, should you incur losses you would reduce your stakes per point accordingly.
Opportunities
There are a couple of stats you could use to your advantage with Longshooter tips.
Let me explain.
Analysing the results of all 346 tips since the beginning of 2020 reveals some hidden insights:
- all the profit has come from the each-way tips – the win tips have made a small loss overall
- there’s an 85% probability you would have made a profit in any 7-day period
With this knowledge and using Longshooter’s introductory offer, I believe there is a good probability of starting to making money with this tipster at a very minimal cost.
The Approach
Sign up to Longshooter’s 7-days for £1 introductory offer and only bet the each-way tips.
Betting only the 285 each-way tips produced a truly impressive ROI of 29%.
85% of all the possible 7-day trials between 1Jan and 30Jun’20 made a profit.
In any 7-day period since the start of the year, there have been 86 seven-day periods – 73 of these produced a profit and 13 produced a loss – a probability of 85% of making a profit. The average profit in any winning 7-day period was 180 units. The average loss in a losing 7-day period was -64 units.
Betting only the each-way tips at £1 each-way (10p per point) would risk a total of £29. This is made up of £1 to get the tips plus £28 of bets (£2 per bet multiplied by an average of 2 each-way bets per day multiplied by 7 days).
Based on these figures the most likely outcome (85% probable) will be a profit at the end of the 7-day trial. On average the profit will be 180 points – that would be £18 using £0.10 (10p) points and that practically pays for the following month’s full subscription.
Final Thoughts
Betting the each-way tips only does look to be the way to go with Longshooter.
Although you should of course keep everything under review in case the situation changes.
Next Steps
You can Get your first 7 days for just £1 and find out more about Longshooter here