LONG SHOT TIPS : 21% ROI on 1 football longshot tip a day

OVERVIEW :

Long Shot Tips has been providing Football tips since October 2019 with 28 profitable months from those 44 total months tipping – that’s 64% success rate.

The tips have produced an excellent 21% ROI.

On average there’s 1 tip per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £10 per day.

Performance to date over different time periods suggest there’s a 73% likelihood of making a profit with Long-Shot-Tips during any consecutive 5 month period.

LONG SHOT TIPS

ROI:
 21%
Profit Mths:
 28 / 44
Expectancy:
 5mth – 73%
Skill:
 VERY HIGH
ELLR:
 10
Risk:
 MEDIUM
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 REASONABLE
Betting Bank:
 250 points


INSIGHTS

Since joining Tipstrr 44 months ago in October 2019, LONG SHOT TIPS :

  • has made a total cumulative profit of £1,452 and an average monthly profit of £30.
  • provides Football tips.
  • predominantly tips the 1X2 market.
  • bookmakers of choice are Betfair and Bet365.
  • likes to tip at odds between 4.00 and 5.99.
  • typically uses a stake of 10/10.
  • usually posts their tips around 4AM – 12AM.
  • usually posts their tips around 6-12 hours before a fixture starts.
  • LONG SHOT TIPS’s longest unbroken profit streak was 5 months.

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

Long Shot Tips’ p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 0% probability these results are down to luck. Its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

The all-time tip Win Rate over 1491 tips has been 30%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:

  • In the next month: At least one run of 11 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 14 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 15 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.

long-shot-tips‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.94 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

Having an ROI of 21% means each 1% of ROI is costing £0.89 which which makes these tips great value.

BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

£0.30 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 21% ROI from 1 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.30 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£1.90 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £1.90 per point. This means betting in the region of £20 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 260pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for long-shot-tips would be around 260 points.

So, if you were betting at £1.90/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £500.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Long-Shot-Tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 64% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 90 points profit versus an average loss of -80 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 65% chance you’d make a profit. You were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 130 points profit versus an average loss of -90 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 64% chance you’d make a profit. You were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 170 points profit versus an average loss of -70 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 44 28 16 64% 90 -80 28 1
any 2 months 43 28 15 65% 130 -90 53 1
any 3 months 42 27 15 64% 170 -70 84 2
any 4 months 41 29 12 71% 200 -90 115 2
any 5 months 40 29 11 73% 210 -100 124 2
any 6 months 39 27 12 69% 250 -90 145 2

Find out more about Long-Shot-Tips here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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