LEMONADO : Football ROI 10% – High consistency – High Expectancy

 

OVERVIEW :

LEMONADO has been providing Football tips since January 2021 producing a reasonable 10% ROI with 23 profitable months from 25 total months tipping – providing a 92% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 13 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £130 per day.

Based on past results at best there’s been a 100% chance of making a profit with LEMONADO during any consecutive 3 months.

LEMONADO

ROI:
 10%
Profit Mths:
 23 / 25
Expectation:
 3mth – 100%
Skill:
 VERY HIGH
ELLR:
 9
Risk:
 LOW
Value:
 GOOD
Stakes:
 HIGH
Betting Bank:
 230 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : VERY HIGH

LEMONADO‘s statistical p-value is 0.0000 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s an extremely low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : VERY SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

Over 25 months there have been 6203 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 49%. This gives an ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 13. In other words you should have been prepared for 13 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.

With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 9 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 11 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 12 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.

LEMONADO‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.02 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

VALUE FOR MONEY : GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

LEMONADO’s overall ROI is 10%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £19. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £2.00 which is around average value.

Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.

BETTING STAKES : HIGH

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

Using the ROI figure together with the average number of tips per day and the average advised points per tip we can get a rough estimate of how much we need to betting to at least cover the monthly subscription cost.

£0.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 10% ROI from 13 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£0.40 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.40 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £55 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 240pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This is sufficient to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for LEMONADO would be around 240 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.40/pt stakes hoping to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £100.

EXPECTANCY : GOOD

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed LEMONADO for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 12 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 7 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 290 points profit versus an average loss of -40 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. You were 11 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 20 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 590 points profit versus an average loss of -30 points.

3 MONTH: Every consecutive 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months you’d have made an average of 800 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 25 23 2 92% 290 -40 263 7
any 2 months 24 22 2 92% 590 -30 538 19
any 3 months 23 23 0 100% 800 0 800 800
any 4 months 22 22 0 100% 1060 0 1060 1060
any 5 months 21 21 0 100% 1340 0 1340 1340
any 6 months 20 20 0 100% 1600 0 1600 1600

Find out more about LEMONADO here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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