Landry Horse Racing : low-risk high-reward solid profit

Sports & Markets

All tips are each-way bets on UK and Irish horse racing.

Tipping & Betting Profile

Landry Horse Racing publishes an average of 10 – 20 tips per day. Stakes are standard 5 points each-way which means 10 points total per tip.

In Jan’20, after feedback from subscribers, there was a trial reduction in the number of tips per day. The impact of this should become clear over the next few months.

Follower Involvement

Tips are published typically between 9am and 11am each morning.

To get the best value odds you need to be permanently online during this morning period. You’ll be busy placing bets for about an hour. But once you get the final “All tips are done for today” notification from Landry the rest of the day is yours. So in that respect, it is set-and-forget.

Trial, Problems and Profit

With so much potential here I decided to run a live trial to get real-world evidence to confirm if I could, in fact, match Landry Horse Racing success.

It isn’t the typical tipster trial you see on tipster review sites.

You will see the problems I encountered, the system errors that happened and the real-money profit I actually made.

You will also see every bet I placed and the odds I was able to get just moments after each tip was published.

I recommend you read my post Landry Horse Racing : Horse Racing Tips LIVE Trial.

Established

Landry Horse Racing has been in operation on Tipstrr since Sep. 2019.

The first couple of months, Sep/Oct, appear to be a period of refinement for Landry. Tips weren’t posted every day – it was pretty irregular.  But there were very good profits even then.

That has changed and since Dec’19 tips have been published every day when there have been horse racing meetings.

Return On Investment (ROI)

Landry advised stakes are always a fixed 5 point each-way bet. Using these advised stakes the overall ROI over 6 months of operation has been a respectable 23% with all 6 months being profitable.

An average winning month has been 800 points.

Looking at the ROI over the last 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives some insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.

Landry Horse Racing’s all-time (6mths) ROI figure is 23%. ROI over the last 3 months period has dropped to 18%. Tipsters have ups and downs as we all know however it is possible this reduction in ROI may be the effect of reducing the number of tips as mentioned earlier but I’m reserving judgement on that for now.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

There are a couple of interesting discoveries I made during the analysis of Landry.

1. The subtle difference between Win Rate and Strike Rate shown on Tipstrr
   The banner at the top of the tipster’s page contains a Win Rate figure. This is the percentage of tips that produce a profit. In Landry’s case 31%.
   The tipster’s stats page shows a “Strike Rate”. This is the percentage of tips/horses that win the race. In Landry’s case, this is 9%.
   From this, you can see that 22% of Landry’s tips produce a profit because the horse didn’t win the race but was “placed”.
2. The profit being made by this service is essentially coming from the Placed horses
   The profit from the tips where the horse won the race practically balances the losses from the losing horses.
   In other words, the 9% Strike Rate (race winners) needs to be maintained to make this service profitable in the long term.
   It’s also the reason why it would not be profitable betting on these tips on the Place-Only market on Betfair – something that I had considered.

These two things put a bit of a twist on the Estimated Longest Losing Run calculation.

The 9% Strike Rate after 2000 tips gives an ELLR figure of 80 – a possible very long losing run of 80 bets between race winners.

The 31% Win Rate after 2000 tips gives an ELLR figure of 21 – a possible losing run of 21 bets between winning bets. But, since these are each-way tips, the winning bet may not be a race winner – it may only be a “place” winner.

I have tracked all Landry tips since day 1 and the actual longest losing run of losing bets so far has been 15. The actual longest losing run of race winners has been 59. Both of these figures are smaller than the corresponding statistically calculated figure.

With an average of 12 tips/day these ELLR figures translate into potentially 6 days without a race winner and 2 days without a winning bet.

Winning Days and Losing Days

What we’re actually seeing from the tip results is that the longest run of losing days has been three (3 losing days in a row) – which has happened once. There have been 9 occurrences of 2 losing days in a row.

The longest run of winning days has been 10 (10 winning days in a row) – which has happened once. But there have been 10 times when there have been 5 or more winning days in a row.

There have been almost twice as many winning days as losing days (a ratio of 1.8 winning days for each losing day)

An average winning day has produced a profit of 124 points. An average losing day has lost -65 points.

With almost 2 times as many winning days than losing days and each winning day producing 2 times the profit that a losing day loses. The profit potential of Landry Horse Racing is obvious.

Betting Bank Required

The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.

But as we’ve seen when it’s Each-Way betting, not all “winners” are the same. A race winner wins big. A placed runner wins small.

A sensible figure for a betting bank would normally be two to three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points. This would cover two longest losing streaks in a row and still leave money in the bank to continue betting.

An ELLR of 21 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 42 losing bets (2 x 21) and still have money left to start over.

Landry Horse Racing’s average advised stake is 10 points so this would suggest a betting bank of 400 – 600 points (3 x ELLR x stake)  to cover the worst-case scenario.

Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)

The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.

Landry Horse Racing’s p-value of less than 0.01% indicates there is very strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this service is not the result of chance but more likely due to the tipster’s expertise.

Risk/Reward (R/R)

The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.

Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.

Landry Horse Racing’s Risk/Reward figure is 0.57 which is an extremely good figure – the reward (profit) is high and the risk is low.

Value for Money (VfM)

Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in real money terms and is useful in comparing tipsters.

Landry Horse Racing’s monthly subscription currently costs £19. The all-time average ROI is 23%. Therefore you are paying £0.80 (80p) for each percentage point of ROI

This is the lowest figure I have yet come across.

The best VfM figures are typically £1.50 or less – £2 to £3 is average. At £0.80 per percentage point, this puts Landry Horse Racing in number one position – the best Value-for-Money tipster service yet seen.

Conclusion

Landry Horse Racing is a skilful tipster who is producing solid and consistent results and makes it into my list of top tipsters.

You’ll be spending an hour every morning placing bets which may seem like a lot of time and effort and may not suit some people. But the profits appear to be there if you can find the time.

There are many bets to be placed each day and there can be several runners tipped in the same race. This type of betting activity might make your bookmaker a little suspicious and cause eventual account restrictions or closures.

It would be best to spread these bets across as many different bookmakers accounts as you can manage.

If the success of Landry Horse Racing continues you could, in the long term, be faced with the problem of consistently winning at every bookmaker you are using. Most (but not all) bookies only like losers so again, if you keep winning, you could face account restrictions or closures.

You may need to be careful in your use of bookmakers to keep under their radar.

Find out more about Landry Horse Racing.

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