LANDRY HORSE RACING : Still Low-risk High-reward and Solid profit

Landry Horse Racing made the Top 10 Tipster List back in March of 2020. Now in September’20 as this service closes in on 11 consecutive profitable months its time an update.

Landry started in Sep’19 with the first profitable month of 1255 points. Three months later in Dec’20 he surpassed even that with an incredible 1620 points profit. Now with just a few days of Sep’20 to go, he’s close to a third month of 1000+ points profit and almost 60% ROI for the month.

There have been over 3000 tips that have produced an all-time 20% ROI and an average of 615 points profit per month over the 11 consecutive winning months.

If he could make it a full year of unbroken monthly profits that would truly put a stamp of success on the quality of this service.

Even on a weekly basis the performance is remarkable. There have been 9 losing weeks (average loss of -7 points) and 35 winning weeks (average profit of +17 points). And there are longer streaks of winning weeks than there are of losing weeks.

PROs

  • Very good ROI
  • Consistent monthly profit
  • Medium-sized betting bank required
  • Set-and-forget betting
  • Value-for-money
  • Low-risk/High Reward

CONs

  • Time commitment in placing quite a few bets

Overview of service

Summary: Landry Horse Racing publishes each-way tips exclusively on UK and Irish horse racing.

There are 5 – 10 tips per day. In direct response to feedback from subscribers, Landry has substantially reduced the number of daily tips from upwards of 30 tips/day, in the early days, to a much more selective and manageable 5 to 10 tips per day.

Tips published before 10 a.m. The publish time of tips has also been refined and most now appear clustered around 9:30 to 10 a.m. (UK) several hours before the racing begins.

All tips are each-way and a flat 5 points each-way.

Average odds are around 9.00 – 12.00 (8/1 to 11/1). The Win Rate has been consistently around 30%. And the all-time ROI is 20%

PROFIT

Return On Investment

Behind the 11-from-11 profitable months, the ROI experienced a 6-month dip followed by a very positive recovery.

This may have been due to the process of refinements the service has been undergoing in reducing the volume of tips while maintaining the ROI.

ROI
20%
 6 mths
14%
3 mth
23%

Return on Capital

Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 600 units, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is an impressive 1200%.

In other words, your original bank of 600 units would have grown to over 7,300 units in those 11 months.

In real money terms starting with £600 and setting your bet stakes for the next calendar month at a very conservative 0.25% of your existing bank then your £600 would have become £12,200.

This represents an ROC of 2100% – in other words, a 21-fold bank growth. And your bets would have only just reached £20 each-way.

Consistency

What more can you say about 11 profitable months from 11? It kind of speaks for itself.

COVID-19 devastated sports events during Spring 2020 and Landry stopped tipping during April and May’20.

But since restarting in June the ROI has increased every month. From 8% ROI in June to 9%, 12%, and now September’s incredible 59%.

COST

Value for Money

Landry Horse Racing is a great value for money.

A month’s subscription to Landry currently costs only £19 – that’s the lowest tier on Tipstrr.

That means a single 1% of ROI costs a very low £0.95 (95p) – well below a typical average of about £2 for Tipstrr tipster services.

Staking

Landry tips are a standard 5-points each-way which represents a 10 point stake.

If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £10 per bet at the beginning and you should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.

Betting Bank

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

From a risk-management aspect, your Betting Bank should have enough in it to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting. (This is where the 2.5 comes to from in the formula below)

The formula I use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:

Betting Bank Size = 2.5  x  ELLR  x  Average Bet Stake

Landry’s win rate – how often tips win – is 30% based on his total of 3,200 tips so far.

Looking forward to the next 2000 tips the ELLR for a Win rate of 30% for 4000 to 5000 tips is around 24 i.e. you should anticipate a losing run of 24 losing bets (or possibly more – remember real-life is different to statistics).

Tips are a standard 5-points each-way so that’s a bet stake of 10 points.

This would, therefore, suggest a start-up Betting Bank in the region of 600 units (2.5*24*10) – assuming average risk.

RISK

Volatility

The Coefficient of Variance gauges the volatility or variance of a tipster’s performance.

Based on this Landry Horse Racing’s performance is very stable and is in the top 10% of all tipsters tracked on thebetinvestor.

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble  – when you join are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?

You can see Landry’s stability reflected in the profit graph which has deviated little from the upward growth trendline over the period.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% indicating very strong evidence against luck or chance.

Landry’s p-value is currently 0.02%, which indicates there is strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.

Estimated Longest Losing Run

The bet Win Rate of 30% indicates an ELLR of around 23 or 24. In other words, you should expect and plan for 24 (or more) losing bets in a row.

All Landry’s tips are advised at 5 points or units each way –  a total of 10 points. This means a losing streak of 24 bets could equate to losing 240 points or units.  (£240 at £1/unit stakes or £480 at £2/unit stakes).

If you started with a Betting Bank of 600 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with at least 120 units to start over (600 minus  2 x 240).

If the 30% Win Rate is maintained and the rate of tips per day stays the same the ELLR is not likely to change much over the next year or two.

Risk/Reward

The Risk/Reward figure is a gauge of how investable a tipster is.

Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility). However, higher reward typically comes with higher risk.

Landry’s current Risk/Reward figure is an acceptable 1.22 and is on the better side of average for all Tipstrr tipsters we monitor.

EFFORT

Time Commitment

The number of bets you’ll need to place each day is quite high (between 5 to 10 on average). But recently the tips have been published within a small time window. That means the bets can probably all be placed within half-an-hour – after that the rest of the day is yours.

Naturally, you’ll want to get your bets on as quickly as possible to get the best odds, and that of course will depend on your personal circumstances and commitments.

Bookmakers Used

The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Skybet and Betfair with a high number of others with William Hill and Bet365.

Interestingly, there has been just the 1 tip advised with Paddy Power but it’s worthy of mention because just this one tip produced 250 units of profit.

There are no “sharp” bookmakers being used here which means if you keep winning, as I’m sure you want to, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and your bets will be restricted to pennies.

Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers and rotating the bookmakers used on a regular basis can help. Using a Betting Exchange or a Bet Broker are also possible options providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.

Impact Of Long Losing Runs

Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 9 per day, and the ELLR is 24  it would only take about 3 days before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.

Adjusting your £-per-point figure based on your Betting Bank might therefore be better done on a weekly rather than monthly basis.

CONCLUSION

Landry Horse Racing has continued to be profitable since making it onto the Top 10 Tipsters List in March 2020.

He continues to have all the right ingredients to be a very investable proposition.

You’re paying a low £19 per month for a high ROI of 20% – that’s great value for money.

And when you compare it against other racing tipsters producing ROI’s above 20%:

  • the Betting Bank you’d need to start following Landry’s tips is much lower than that of others
  • the estimated longest losing run is shorter
  • and the stability of his performance is better
  • but on the downside, there are more tips and bets to manage and the staking would need closer management

Even so, 11 consecutive profitable months from 11 months of tipping is the stuff of tipster’s dreams.

And who’s to say the success won’t continue?

Find out more about Landry Horse Racing here

Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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