Horse Racing Tipster
Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- Over 1200 tips
- Good consistency
- Medium-risk / High-reward
- Very good ROI
- Good skill indicator
- Exchange friendly
- Set-and-forget betting
- Low Strike Rate
- Potential long losing runs
Summary: A horse racing tipster who is focused on finding value. Level stakes betting on runners at an average odds of 11 (10/1). Has produced 13 winning months out of 14 since Oct’18.
- horse racing tipster
- 20 – 25 tips per week
- tips typically posted 10-11am (CET) 9-10am (UK)
Sports & Markets
Heli’s Horses is dedicated to horse racing and all tips have been for race winners only at average odds of around 11 (10/1) – no each ways.
He has been particularly successful at Newcastle meetings where he has made almost 750 points profit and produced over 106% ROI.
Betfair provided the best odds for over 30% of the tips with Ladbrokes not far behind. So this service looks to be exchange friendly which is a good thing for avoiding account closures.
Tipping & Betting Profile
Heli’s Horses publishes an average of around 25 tips per week so you can expect about 3 – 4 per day.
Advised stakes are always 10 points so, at 4 bets per day that would be a betting outlay of around 40 points per day.
If you are betting at £1 per point stakes that’s about £40 per day. It would be £80/day at £2/pt stakes. Or £200/day at £5/pt stakes.
Following these tips at £1 per point stakes would mean placing £30 – £40 of bets per day which would produce something like £200 profit in an average month (based on this service’s all-time performance).
This is a set-and-forget service but It’s important to remember that Heli’s Horses is all about finding value and value can vanish very quickly as bookmakers change their odds.
Tips are published early in the morning for that afternoon’s racing. Typically between 10am – 11am (Central European Time) which is 9am – 10am (UK time).
You will need on your toes during that hour to get the notifications and get your bets on asap to get the best odds and make the most profit.
Once that’s all done though you can get on with the rest of your day.
Heli’s Horses has been in operation since October 2018. May’19 was the only losing month out of 14 and one always wonders if the season changeover from jumps to the flat was a factor.
I class this as strong performance over the long term.
Return On Investment (ROI)
At the time of this analysis, Heli’s Horses’ overall ROI over 14 months of operation is an excellent 22.5% on level stakes.
Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.
Heli’s Horses’ figures has shown a dip in ROI over the past 3 months but that has been on the back of solid previous performance.
The 12-month ROI figure is 23.8%. ROI over the last 6 month period was higher at 27.8%. And the most recent 3-months returned an average of 16.6% ROI.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
As with many horse racing tips services Win Rates are typically fairly low. If they’re tipping a lot of favourites then the win rate might be around 30%.
But Helli’s Horses selection are around 11’s (10/1) so they’re not going to be favourites which means win rates are going to be much lower.
The average win rate is just shy of 14% which sets Heli’s Horses Estimated Longest Losing Run at 49.
In other words, you could expect to suffer a run of around 49 losing bets in a row..
Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 4 tips per day, this could mean you could maybe go two weeks without a winner.
You need to be prepared for that eventuality both financially and psychologically.
Having the right betting bank will help you weather these storms.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 49 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 98 losing bets (2 x 49) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
Heli’s Horses’s average advised stakes are a fixed 10 points so this would suggest a betting bank of 1470 points (3 times 49 times 10) to cover the worst-case scenario.
This service is delivering substantial profits on £1 per point stakes so it should be able to operate safely on a betting bank around £1000.
That may seem too rich for many bettors but read through to the summary before making any decision.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.
Heli’s Horses’ p-value of just under 1% indicates there is strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but more likely due to their expertise.
The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.
Heli’s Horses’ Risk/Reward figure is 1.07 and can be classed as very good.
Value for Money (VfM)
Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in real money terms and is useful in comparing tipsters.
Heli’s Horses’s monthly subscription currently costs £29. The all-time average ROI is 22.5%. Therefore you are paying £1.29 for each percentage point of ROI (£29 divided by 22.5). This is relatively inexpensive compared to the average of £2 – £3.
I know not many of us have £1000 lying around and at first glance the potential long losing streaks and this big betting bank could put you off this tipster.
But think again.
Even betting at 50p per point you’d need to set aside only £500 for your betting bank and you would be seeing £100 a month profit.
At 25p per point, the profit would be £50 per month but at that level, the £29 subscription cost becomes significant and makes it not really worth the effort.
Starting with smaller stakes and racking it up as the profits start to accumulate is definitely the way to go here.
Heli’s Horses service is delivering an excellent Return-on-Investment and providing steady consistent profits. The performance profile makes it an ideal candidate for those with deeper pockets.
Find out more about Heli’s Horses.