Hawksford Racing : Early signs of 40% ROI – ABANDONED

A Professional Horse racing Tipster since 22nd March 2022, Hawksford-racing has delivered an incredible 43% ROI with 4 profitable months from 4 total months tipping – providing a 100% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 4 tips per day typically advised at 16 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £66 per day.

Hawksford-racing

ROI:
43%
PM:
4 / 4
Skill:
UNCERTAIN
ELLR:
28
Risk:
LOW
VfM:
VERY GOOD
Stks:
LOW

Skill Factor: UNCERTAIN

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.

Hawksford-racing’s p-value is 0.4720 (to 4 dec.places ).

This indicates its likely these results could be achieved by pure chance

However, there’s not enough data yet to say whether this a reliable figure or not.

Losing Streaks: LONG

The tip Win Rate has been 20% over 458 tips. This gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 28 – in those 458 tips you should have been prepared for 28 losing tips in a row.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 22 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 27 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 27 losing tips.

Risk: LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Hawksford-racing‘s coefficient of variation figure is 0.23 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

Value for Money: VERY GOOD

Hawksford-racing’s overall ROI is 43%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £39. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £0.92 which is great value.

Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.

Staking Levels: LOW

£0.10 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 43% ROI from 4 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 16.5 pt. you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point just to cover the £39 subscription cost.

£0.20 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.20 per point. This means betting in the region of £15 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

Betting Bank: 1160pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Hawksford-racing would be around 1160 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.20/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £200.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 1933 points profit.

2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 3833 points profit.

3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 5750 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 4 4 0 100% 1933 0 1933 1933
any 2 months 3 3 0 100% 3833 0 3833 3833
any 3 months 2 2 0 100% 5750 0 5750 5750
any 4 months 1 1 0 100% 7733 0 7733 7733

Find out more about Hawksford-racing here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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