GAME SET & PROFIT : interesting, thought-provoking but not recommended

One of the subscribers to thebetinvestor asked if I would do a technical analysis report on a Bettinggods’ tipster called GameSet&Profit suggesting that I would find it “interesting”. I said sure no problem.

As it turned out it has been one of the most interesting, thought-provoking, and time-consuming technical analyses I have done so far. (thankyou to that subscriber – you know who you are!)

Overview of service

Summary: GameSet&Profit is a tennis tipster on Bettinggods. He began proofing his tips to Bettinggods in Oct’20 and was launched to the public in early March 2021. The service has been running for 6½ months and so far every month has delivered a profit.

The tip Win Rate is around 50% overall on average odds of 2.11 (excluding doubles, trebles etc.) and the all-time ROI is 6.4%.

In his bio he says that he has been involved in tennis since he was a toddler and he’s been both a player and a coach. He has been following the pros intensively for the past 5 years and betting and trading professional matches on the Betfair Exchange.

His tips are based on his own assessment of both players’ strengths and weaknesses and how the probability of a win correlates to the odds offered by bookmakers.

PROs

  • Low volatility
  • Relatively small betting bank required
  • £20 per bet could net £300 profit per month

CONs

  • Wide variation in number of tips per day
  • Subscription cost is poor value-for-money

PROFIT

Return On Investment (ROI)

GameSet&Profit is in its 7th month. The first 6 months saw 4 months of double-digit ROI between 12% and 15% and an average of 9% overall. This looked very encouraging for Bettinggods who launched this service at the beginning of March 2021.

However, since the launch, March and now halfway through April have produced ROI’s under 2%.

That will be disappointing for all concerned.

Overall ROI 7mth 6mth 3mth
6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.0%

The table below shows the ROI breakdown for GameSet&Profit ‘s singles versus multiples tips.

Num Profit (pts) ROI
Singles 1069 109 5%
Multiples 106 43 20%

As you can see there are 10 times more singles tips than multiples tips. The multiples are mostly doubles and trebles but there have been 4-, 5- and six-folds too as well as one 10-fold! (which lost).

Return on Capital (ROC)

In this section of the analysis report I would normally include an indication of how a betting bank would have grown over the period under review.

This would be based on staking a percentage of the available betting bank on each tip.

However, for reasons that will be explained throughout this report and in particular the wide range of numbers of tips per day any ROC figures would be misleading.

Consistency

The bank growth does show a strong upward trend and the variance away from that trendline is acceptable.

However, with only 6½ months of results, it is a little too early to be confident about the consistency of this tipping service.

COST

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster. And you’re paying a subscription fee for that.

Each percentage of ROI, therefore, has a monetary £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 in subscription fee means each 1% of ROI costs £2)

This is a useful way to compare tipsters when shopping around for value-for-money – how much is each 1% of ROI costing you.

There are introductory offers to be had when signing up to GameSet&Profit but the normal monthly subscription is advertised at £37 per month.

But beware you’ll actually pay £44.40. Why?

The £37 that is advertised is excluding VAT … and you don’t get told it’s excluding VAT until you are paying. Bettinggods should be upfront about that rather than surprising you half-way through the buying process.

So the 6.4% ROI actually costs £44.40, each 1% of ROI, therefore, costs around £6.90. This is more than 3 times the average of £2.20 per percent of ROI.

GameSet&Profit is clearly not value-for-money in this respect. There are other tipsters producing much higher ROI for a lower subscription cost.

Staking

Staking and Betting Bank is where things start to get a little tricky.

GameSet&Profit has a very straightforward 2 points advised for each tip. But deciding if that 2 points should be a £5 bet or a £10 bet or a £25 bet is debatable.

The difficulty arises because of two things: there are two batches of tips published each day and also there is a wide variation in the number of tips published per day.

There are a couple of standout Key Facts you can read on the Bettinggods tipster page:

  • Tips are sent out at 9.30am & 8.30pm (± 1hr) every day…
  • Ravi sends 168 tips per month on average. These will NOT be evenly spread through the month“.

So there are two batches of tips published each day and, from analysis, the number of tips per day has ranged widely from 1 to 36.

Statistically, the most likely number of tips your receive in a day is 7 but the average number of tips per day is 9 (1175 tips over 184 tipping days).
[Note: The Bettinggods figure of 168 tips per month figure is mathematically correct but is misleading since there have been quite a few “no tips” days)

The situation we’re faced with is: there could be lots of tips – but there might not – and they might all come in the morning – but they might not – or they might all come in the evening – but they might not – you won’t know until half-eight or nine o’clock at night.

So, with a limited amount of betting bank how can you decide how much to place on each bet?

Betting £25 per tip on those 2 tips published in the morning might feel ok (£50) but it would be a little more challenging betting £25 per tip for the 20 tips that you get that night (£500).

But maybe the picture isn’t as bleak as it first appears.

Just over 50% (half) of the days have been 7 tips or less which is manageable.

And if we worked with the Pareto 80/20 principle we see that 80% of the days have had 14 tips or less.

So maybe we can do some stake estimates and betting bank planning based on assuming an average of 14 tips/bets per day and assuming two equal batches of 7?

My general approach to this would be to treat each batch of tips as you would a normal betting day. Set your bet stakes for the next batch of tips based on your available bank at the time.

This would have the added advantage of reacting to a long losing run that could be playing out over the whole day.

Betting Bank

Even with all the uncertainty around the number of tips per day perhaps we can take a stab at what a reasonable betting bank size might be for GameSet&Profit.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The ELLR of GameSet&Profit based on 1175 tips and a 50% Win Rate is around 11. That is, you should anticipate a losing run of 11 tips/bets.

The formula I normally use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:

Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

The betting Bank for GameSet&Profit would therefore be 55 points (=2.5 x 11 x 2).

However, based on the fact that this service has already actually suffered one longer losing run of 20 tips and 2 losing runs of 11 tips I would increase the ELLR figure to 15.

This would set the Betting Bank at 75 points and at £10 per point, would be £750.

(I am informed that the Bettinggods site initially recommended a 125 point bank and £25 per-point stakes but this seems to have been removed from the tipster information. Using these figures would indicate a recommended betting bank of around £3,000. I don’t believe many people would have a spare £3K lying around doing nothing.)

But the question is would betting at £10 per point provide much profit with this service?

  • At £10 per point and 2 points per tip that’s £20 per bet
  • At an average of 9 to 14 tips per day and 30 days per month that would be at least 270 bets per month
  • 270 bets at £20 per bet is £5,400 staked per month on average
  • At 6.4% ROI the profit from £5,400 would be £345

The £45 would cover your monthly subscription (including VAT) and that would leave you with a £300 clear profit – very good.

RISK

Volatility

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to join on a good month or a bad month?

There are mathematics behind calculating volatility but you can get a feel for it from the performance graph.

The actual performance is the bank growth shown by the solid red thin line. The general trend of the bank growth is shown by the broad red line.

The closer the actual performance keeps to the trend line the less volatility there is and the more dependable the performance and profits are month to month.

GameSet&Profit’s volatility is reasonably low and based on this you’d be unlucky to hit a losing month when you join.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

And this is where this service looks decidedly suspect.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low provide very strong evidence against it being luck or chance.

GameSet&Profit’s p-value based on 1,175 tips is currently 5.6%.

Such a high p-value indicates there is no real evidence that the ROI being produced by GameSet&Profit is due to skill or expertise. It is equally as likely that it could be achieved by luck or pure chance.

Given time however with more tips and continued success the p-value will fall. Perhaps to below 0.01%. But that will take time.

If he maintained the 50% WIn Rate and 6.4% ROI over 5000 tips then the p-value would reduce to about 0.02% That would be strong evidence against luck or chance.

At the current rate of around 300 tips per month, it would be this time next year before we would see that. So we will have to wait and see what the future holds.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

With this service there can be multiple tips advised for the same match e.g. there were four tips on the Millman v Garin match on the 14th April. 1: Millman to win; 2: Millman +4.5 games; 3: Millman +1.5sets; and 4: Over 21.5 games.

Consequently, calculating the length of an actual losing run in these circumstances cannot be exact. The Win-Lose sequence in the tipster’s results spreadsheet might look like LWWW or WWWL.

If you put two of these together the sequence might look like LWWWWWWL or it might be WWWLLWWW. The first shows a winning run of 6 tips the second shows a losing run of 2 tips.

Complicate this with the fact that the outcome of some tips might be known before the match completes (like over 21.5 games) while some can only be known when the match has finished.

So is the sequence of winning/losing tips based on the sequence they were published? Or the sequence the outcome was known? Or the sequence they were recorded in the tipster’s spreadsheet?

I’m basing calculations on results as recorded in the tipster’s spreadsheet.

The bet Win Rate of 50% indicates an ELLR of around 11 based on the almost 1,200 tips published in the last 6½ months.

With an average of 9 tips per day, it would only take only one or two days to know you’ve hit that ELLR of 11. In fact, it could be possible to hit that longest run within one batch of tips.

This suggests you should review your stake amounts before betting on each batch of tips.

An ELLR of 11 combined with 2 points per tip equates to a loss of 22 points if that ELLR was it to happen (£220 at £10/pt or £550 at £25/pt)

It’s important to note that GameSet&Profit has already had an actual longest losing run of 19 tips (or 20 depending how you sequence multiple tips on the same match).

But this long losing run happened over a period of 3 days.

So adjusting the staking before each batch of tips can help reduce the negative impact such a long losing run would have on your betting bank.

Actual Losing Runs

There were 586 losing tips and 589 winning tips in the 1175 tips reviewed which accounts for the 50% Win Rate

However, here’s the profile of losing runs.

Losing Runs of Tips

Tips Losing Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 20
Times occurred 133 51 25 15 11 9 1 5 2 2 1
%age 52% 20% 10% 6% 4% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0%

(Percentages are rounded for clarity)

A losing run of 2 tips has occurred 51 times and a losing run of 11 has happened twice.

From this, you can also see that 95% of the time a losing run has been 6 or less.

Runs of Winning and Losing Days

It can often be informative to look at losing days versus winning days rather than the tips themselves.

There have been slightly more winning days than losing days and the winning and losing streaks are balanced fairly equally.

There were 81 winning days and 70 losing days in the 151 tipping days under review.

The table below shows the frequency of losing and winning days.

e.g. a losing run of 2 days occurred 12 times; a winning run of 3 days occurred 4 times.

Run of days Losing Winning
1 25 23
2 12 9
3 2 4
4 1 2
5 1 4
6 1 0

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility).

GameSet&Profit’s current Risk/Reward figure is good. The 0.73 number (a ratio of 7 risk to 10 reward) is below 1 and indicates there more reward than risk being offered.

But unfortunately, the 6.4% ROI is not a lot of reward.

EFFORT

Time Commitment

It will depend on your personal circumstances but this is perhaps not easy service to follow.

You will need to in a position to receive the tips and place potentially quite a lot of bets between 8.30 and 10.30 in the mornings and again between 7.30 and 9.30 in the evenings.

The evening batch of tips will not present a problem I imagine but if you’re employed the morning tips would probably be difficult to manage.

CONCLUSION

This technical analysis has covered 6½ months and 1,239 tips of GameSet&Profit’s results from mid-Oct’20 to mid-Apr’21.

There are a number of factors that steer me away from following GameSet&Profit:

  1. the 6.4% ROI is on the low side
  2. the high p-value suggests the profits being made could just as equally be chance
  3. subscription costs represent very poor value-for-money
  4. there’s a fair bit of effort involved in following the service
  5. the estimated longest losing run has been hit twice and exceeded once already

The picture might be different by the end of this year but for now, I’m afraid GameSet&Profit is not an investable proposition.

However, if you did want to subscribe and follow GameSet&Profit’s tips the recommendations would be:

  • resist signing up for a week or so after giving BG’s your email – you will be offered a free trial
  • there’s typically an up-sell during the free trial period which is better than initially offered
  • set aside a 75 – 100 point betting bank
  • set bet stake levels based on 1% of the available betting bank at the time of receiving each batch of tips
  • be prepared for a run of 12 – 15 losing bets before the end of 2021
  • use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate through them

Find out more about GameSet&Profit here

 

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